Europe 1 with AFP // Photo credit: STRINGER / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP 2:50 p.m., March 11, 2024

The Portuguese have expressed themselves at the ballot box.

The moderate right-wing Democratic Alliance wins the early legislative elections by a narrow margin ahead of the Socialist Party.

The far right, represented by Chega, recorded a historic surge, going from 12 to 48 deputies.

A period of instability is looming in the country. 

The day after the legislative elections which ended eight years of socialist rule, the Portuguese find themselves on Monday with a Parliament where the moderate right will have difficulty keeping its promise to form a stable government without relying on the populists who have quadrupled their number of seats.

“Given the distribution of seats, we should not expect great stability,” Filipa Raimundo, professor of political science at the Lisbon University Institute ISCTE, commented to AFP.

Announced by the polls, the new surge of the far-right Chega (Enough) party was confirmed during Sunday's election, marked by the highest participation rate in almost 30 years.

The anti-system formation founded in 2019 by André Ventura thus went from 12 to 48 deputies by doubling its score, to 18% of the votes, compared to the previous elections of January 2022. It had already been propelled to the rank of third political force in the country, with 7.2% of the votes.

From now on, its president claims to have achieved the objective of becoming “the centerpiece of the political system”.

In any case, three months before the European elections, Portuguese voters have confirmed that the far right is progressing across the Old Continent.

“A fractured country” according to Portuguese media

The center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) led by Luis Montenegro, for its part, had to be content with a very narrow victory against the Socialist Party (PS), which lined up behind Pedro Nuno Santos after the resignation at the beginning of November of Outgoing Prime Minister Antonio Costa.

Before the four mandates for foreign constituencies were allocated, the AD won 29.5% of the votes and 79 seats out of a total of 230, while the PS obtained 28.7% of the votes and 77 deputies.

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This result therefore does not allow the winner to form a majority of at least 116 elected officials alone, nor even in coalition with a small liberal party which came in fourth place with 5% of the votes and eight seats.

Two years ago, Antonio Costa won an absolute majority with a score of 41.4%, but his government did not resist his involvement in an influence peddling investigation targeting his chief of staff.

“Hurricane Chega is turning the country to the right,” headlined the popular daily Correio da manha on Monday, while the Jornal de Noticias summarized the results of the day before: “A fragile victory, a fractured country.”

“I am really very satisfied with the AD's victory in the elections, but surprised by Chega's score,” reacted Elise de Morais, a 38-year-old manager interviewed by AFP in a square in central Lisbon.

Governing with a “relative majority” while counting on the “responsibility” of socialists

Speaking at the end of a long electoral evening, the leader of the Democratic Alliance Luis Montenegro claimed an "unavoidable" victory and said he wanted to govern with a "relative majority".

In short, he is counting on the "responsibility" of the socialists, whom he asked not to vote for a possible motion of censure alongside Chega to bring down his future government.

In Portugal, the executive does not need a vote in Parliament to take office, which could happen in early April.

The new boss of the socialists Pedro Nuno Santos thus accepted his defeat and immediately took on the role of leader of the opposition.

He cautioned, however, that he did not feel obligated to let the next state budget pass by abstaining.

This deadline will be a trial by fire for the fragile center-right majority, caught between the left and the far right.

The President of the Republic, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will begin on Tuesday to consult the parties represented in Parliament, a step prior to the designation of the next Prime Minister.

Luis Montenegro will be heard last, on March 20.