Highlights: The Social Democratic Party (center-right) of Luis Montenegro wins this weekend's early legislative elections, with 29% of the vote. This election was also marked by the strong breakthrough of André Ventura's far-right Chega party. The Salazar regime ruled Portugal for four decades, from the 1930s to the 1970s, establishing an authoritarian and ultra-conservative power. Victor Pereira: Many Portuguese have expressed distrust of the political class, which they sometimes consider corrupt or uninterested in their daily difficulties.

It is a very narrow victory for the center-right in Portugal. The Social Democratic Party (center-right) of Luis Montenegro wins this weekend's early legislative elections, with 29% of…

Interview

Legislative elections in Portugal: the breakthrough of the far right “is a protest vote against the elites”

It is a very narrow victory for the center-right in Portugal.

The Social Democratic Party (center-right) of Luis Montenegro wins this weekend's early legislative elections, with 29% of the vote and only two seats ahead of the left.

The latter had been in power since 2015. This election was also marked by the strong breakthrough of André Ventura's far-right Chega party.

With 18% of the votes and around fifty deputies, the formation created in 2019 thus becomes the third political force in the country.

Interview with historian Victor Pereira, researcher at the Institute of Contemporary History of the New University of Lisbon.

Leader of the far-right political party Chega, Andre Ventura, reacts after the results of the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, March 11, 2024. © Pedro Rocha/Reuters

By: Daniel Vallot Follow

RFI

: How do you explain the breakthrough of Chega and its leader André Ventura?

Victor Pereira:

For several years, many

Portuguese

have expressed distrust of the political class, which they sometimes consider corrupt or uninterested in their daily difficulties.

And the socialist government had to resign amid scandals, which erupted throughout 2023. Antonio Costa, the socialist Prime Minister since 2015, repeated that he was innocent.

But he considered that his dignity had been undermined and that he could not remain Prime Minister.

André Ventura, the leader of Chega, played a lot on this idea of “all rotten”.

Its slogan was to “

clean up Portugal

”, and on this point it responds to perceptions that are quite anchored in Portugal.

On the other hand, despite good macroeconomic results, many Portuguese believe that they are not benefiting from economic growth.

Rents have exploded.

So are property prices and many households are afraid of losing their homes.

The Portuguese media, as in other countries, have talked a lot about insecurity.

They have reported extensively on immigration, which has increased significantly in Portugal, without this implying an increase in insecurity.

But it is on this set of elements that André Ventura surfed.

He has a relatively young personality, and began his career participating in television shows on football, with a fairly demagogic and populist style.

Read alsoLegislative elections in Portugal: the center right wins the elections, the far right on the rise

The Salazar regime ruled Portugal for four decades, from the 1930s to the 1970s, establishing an authoritarian and ultra-conservative power.

Are Ventura voters nostalgic for it

Indeed, this question arises because Portugal

will soon celebrate the 50th anniversary

of April 25, 1974 and the Carnation Revolution, which ended 48 years of far-right dictatorship.

It is somewhat ironic to see nearly 50 far-right deputies installed in Parliament at the time of this anniversary.

I think that part of the electorate may be nostalgic for the dictatorship, but this remains relatively small.

And we must not lose sight of the fact that a significant portion of Chega voters were born well after April 25, 1974. These are not people who experienced the dictatorship and who would be nostalgic for it, even if sometimes the figure of Salazar can be highlighted because he was considered incorruptible, and did not get rich during his four decades in power.

In my opinion, a large part of the vote for Chega is rather a protest vote against the socialist (PS) and center-right (PSD) elites who have governed for several decades.

Rather than nostalgia for Salazar, would it not be, in this case, a form of amnesia with regard to this period which would explain the success of André Ventura and Chega?

Yes, it is rather this interpretation that seems relevant to me.

With the Carnation Revolution of April 25, 1974, there was a clear and profound break with the past, unlike what happened in Spain.

Thus, the 1976 Constitution banned parties defending fascist ideology.

For several years, the memory of Salazarism, colonial wars, poverty and repression were very present and had almost wiped out the room for maneuver of the extreme right in Portugal.

But now, 50 years later, it seems that this memory has been diluted.

The youngest do not know this period.

And so this “vaccine” tends to see its effects fade, vote after vote.

There is a form of amnesia.

The international context in which Portugal finds itself also plays a role.

Throughout Europe,

the extreme right is experiencing significant scores

as well as in Brazil, the United States, etc.

Until then, Portugal was rather an exception.

In a way, these elections show a certain normalization of Portugal, with a significant extreme right.

Is the scenario of a coalition between the far-right and the center-right, which came out on top in the elections, possible

Until now, Luis Montenegro, the leader of the PSD, has always said: “

no means no

”.

This is the phrase he repeated throughout the election campaign.

He will therefore not accept any post-electoral alliance with the extreme right, which nevertheless continues to reach out to him.

This is also a way of setting a trap for him.

For the moment, Luis Montenegro has refused.

He will therefore have a minority government: he can only rely on Liberal Initiative, a small party, which also did not achieve a very high score (5% of the votes and eight seats, Editor's note).

Certainly, the Socialist Party has said that it will not prevent the formation of a government formed by the PSD if it comes first.

But will this government be viable?

Will he be able to vote on the budget and laws while being very far from the majority?

Many Portuguese today wonder if the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, really made a good decision last November

by deciding to dissolve the Assembly

Nothing forced him to do so: there was a left-wing majority and the PS had suggested appointing another Prime Minister, something the president refused.

Now Portugal finds itself in a situation similar to that experienced by its Spanish neighbor a few years ago, with elections that make the political situation much less clear and much less governable.

If a right-wing government is formed, it is not impossible that it will not be able to function.

And that new elections be organized.

Also read Early elections in Portugal: who benefits from the good health of the economy?

Legislative elections in Portugal: the breakthrough of the far right “is a protest vote against the elites”

Legislative elections in Portugal: the breakthrough of the far right “is a protest vote against the elites”

You may like

Trends 24h

Latest