Will the occupation army invade Rafah?

Netanyahu's government faces a major dilemma related to the fate of 1.4 million Palestinians in Rafah (Anatolia Agency)

Weeks have passed since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government announced their intention to invade the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, which faced an American demand to guarantee the safety of civilians before launching the attack.

With the intensification of international criticism of the focused targeting of civilians by the occupation forces, the occupation government confirmed that it intends to develop a plan to deport the city’s 1.4 million residents and refugees, without specifying where exactly.

Today, with the advent of the holy month of Ramadan, the Israeli government finds itself facing a difficult decision to continue a process that it believes is necessary to achieve the complete victory that Netanyahu spoke about.

Complex calculations

This supposed battle comes in light of deep doubts and disagreements in Israel based on the feasibility of continuing the military campaign, as long as it does not achieve its desired goals, which are eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and liberating its Israeli prisoners.

There is much criticism from political and military levels and from former prime ministers for the continuation of the operation because it did not achieve its goal, in addition to calls to move to prisoner negotiations with Hamas, with the aggression continuing after that.

This is what the members of the War Council, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, believe in, and what two former prime ministers, Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak, and other former military personnel, called for.

These calls are also based on the clear and frank accusation of Netanyahu that he wants to prolong the war in order to preserve his government, spare himself from trial on charges of corruption, and fail to anticipate the October 7 attack.

On the other hand, Netanyahu seeks to carry out the attack on Rafah because he wants to give the occupation army the opportunity to achieve an image of victory by tightening the noose on the Hamas movement and its political and military leadership.

He believes that success in killing any of the movement's symbols will improve his popularity and give him an image of victory, thus prolonging the life of his government. Rather, he is trying, through continued military pressure, to push Hamas leaders, led by Yahya Sinwar, to surrender or accept deportation outside the occupied territory, as happened with Yasser Arafat. In Lebanon in 1982, an offer that the Hamas leadership did not accept.

The continuation of the war is a lifeline for Netanyahu, regardless of its results, which increases his differences with his opponents, who, in light of the war, find it difficult to call for elections that would oust Netanyahu.

Netanyahu and his Minister of War are giving justifications for invading Rafah and occupying the Salah al-Din Crossing (Philadelphia), with the desire to besiege Hamas in its last strongholds, and to prevent supplies and weapons from reaching it through smuggling tunnels along the line.

But what is true is that most of these tunnels were flooded by Egypt and are no longer working, in addition to the Egyptian walls and fortifications that prevent smuggling. In addition, the resistance is now manufacturing its own weapons.

Complete control of Gaza

The Netanyahu government also considers that this battle aims to complete control over the Gaza Strip, with the completion of the construction of a one-kilometre-wide buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with Israel and Egypt, which ensures that it limits the resistance’s ability to target Israel and enables settlers to return to the Gaza Strip.

However, the security of the settlers cannot be guaranteed as long as the resistance remains active, and the war did not succeed in curbing or weakening it significantly, as it is enough to fire a single missile salvo for the settlers’ security to dissipate.

Israeli sources have confirmed that the occupation is preparing, within the framework of the post-war vision, to enable Palestinian tribes that do not belong to either Hamas or Fatah to rule Gaza civilly, which is what many Palestinian tribes have rejected, which makes it difficult to implement.

This government refuses to deal with the American proposal to enable the reformed Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza, because it wants to prevent the existence of any Palestinian entity in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

On the other hand, it has been proven that the occupation army only succeeded in neutralizing a few thousand resistance members out of about 35,000 fighters, and only dismantled small parts of the resistance tunnels. This is what the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee in the US Senate, Mark Warner, said about two weeks ago. .

This makes the occupation army's mission much more difficult to dismantle the resistance's capabilities in an area where there are still 4 Hamas military battalions that have not yet participated in the battle, and whose tunnels have not been significantly damaged.

Battle conditions and data

It is clear that the occupation government is still waiting for the results of the truce negotiations before it begins its ground attack on Rafah. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant has previously threatened that his forces will attack Rafah if the truce negotiations fail.

Security circles in Israel, as well as the United States, have warned against any escalation during Ramadan in the West Bank and Gaza, in anticipation of the expansion of the conflict.

The negotiations are still stuck on basic points, the most important of which is the pledge of Israeli withdrawal from Gaza at the end of the third phase in the framework agreement reached in Paris, the repositioning of the occupation forces in the buffer strip they occupy, and allowing civilians displaced from the south to return to their homes in the north.

While the equation of releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for civilian prisoners of the occupation in the first stage is still a point of contention between the two parties.

What is noteworthy is that Netanyahu is still seeking to thwart the truce talks. At times, he restricts the powers of the negotiators, at other times he does not consult with the War Council regarding the instructions he gives them, and at third times he requests, through mediators, the resistance to give him the names of the prisoners without his War Council taking a decision to do so, which is what it responded to. Hamas, that this will not be without a price.

Israeli writer Raviv Drucker, a journalist for Haaretz, confirms this matter when he says that Netanyahu realizes that the army and all the ministers in the war council agree on the need for the deal, “but this deal will fail Netanyahu’s most important mission, which is the survival of the coalition whose members include Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.” .

The US administration is also seeking to achieve a truce and is putting pressure on the Netanyahu government, in order to save Biden’s deteriorating standing in the elections, especially among young people and Arabs.

Gantz's visit to Washington and his meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris, the US President's envoy to the Middle East, Brett McGurk, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, came as a message to Netanyahu that this administration is capable of dealing with his opponents and supporting them.

However, Netanyahu is still resisting American pressure and is even betting on Biden's fall in the elections and the arrival of Donald Trump to provide him with full coverage to continue in the government.

Instead of the American position, Netanyahu is on the verge of losing his Western allies due to the intense targeting of civilians, obstructing the entry of aid, causing famine in northern Gaza, and even targeting aid trucks, as happened in the flour massacre in which more than 100 Palestinians were killed.

This policy was what brought his government to the International Court of Justice, which confirmed the charge of genocide against the entity.

Attack accounts

Although talk about the Rafah attack has largely declined recently in favor of talking about the details of the truce, its continued faltering may open the door for Israel to use the attack as a pressure on Hamas to accept the Israeli position, especially since President Biden tried to throw the ball in Hamas’ court in reaching the truce agreement.

Despite this, Netanyahu's government faces a major dilemma related to the fate of 1.4 million Palestinians in Rafah, and how to fulfill American and Western demands to spare them from war and prevent large massacres among their ranks if war breaks out without securing them.

The occupation government did not disclose a specific solution, although the Washington Post quoted an Israeli official that there is an evacuation plan that includes establishing 15 camps on the seashore, each with 25,000 tents, to accommodate refugees in Rafah before the attack on it begins.

The Israeli dilemma is related to the position of the Palestinians and the extent of their response to a new displacement plan, in light of their already suffering from displacement from the north to Rafah. This plan also requires large financial funding, which is not believed to be approved by any country as long as the Netanyahu government does not cooperate with the American administration, neither on the issue of the truce nor on the issue. On the topic of post-war and independent statehood.

Rather, the extremist government may carry out massacres and bombings on the border that will push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to head to the Egyptian Rafah, creating a reality that Egypt will deal with - despite its rejection of the issue of displacement - by sheltering them in Al-Arish, an area that can house tens of thousands in the empty residential apartments therein, and which can Expand it to accommodate hundreds of thousands.

Sweep option

From reading the Israeli position, and the limits of American pressure on it, it is likely that the Netanyahu government will go for the invasion option, provided that it succeeds in sheltering the Rafah refugees to avoid major massacres.

Otherwise, this process may cause important changes in international positions on aggression, and provoke the American position by resorting to restrictions on the supply of weapons, or perhaps even lifting the lid on it at the United Nations.

The occupation has begun concentrated bombing on some targets in Rafah, and wants to continue the aggression to occupy all of Gaza, and impose its political vision by empowering Palestinians who are not affiliated with Hamas or even Fatah to rule Gaza, and transform its situation into something similar to that of the West Bank!

This is what expresses Netanyahu’s slogan of complete victory, even if its result is uncertain, and almost impossible, because the occupation army did not gain control over the north and Khan Yunis, and there is great doubt that he will be able to do that in Rafah due to the resistance’s steadfastness and its retention of an important part of its strength. Until now.

As for the issue of timing, it is largely related to the achievement achieved in the armistice deal, whether these talks extend to the month of Ramadan, and the time that the occupation will take to transfer the Palestinian refugees out of Rafah.

As for the desired results for Israel, it does not seem that this battle will differ from its predecessors in terms of failure to achieve its goals. Rather, it may be the beginning of the end of the battle after the occupation fails to achieve its goals.

There are two factors that could stop the attack, and certainly not American pressure. The first is the fall of the Netanyahu government, and the second is the success of the resistance in achieving a breakthrough and inflicting field defeats on the occupation in the north or Khan Yunis, which would make it shift its attention to these two regions.

Source: Al Jazeera