Portugal, on the verge of an ungovernable scenario after the legislative elections

Luis Ángel SanzSpecial envoy Lisbon

Special Envoy Lisbon

Updated Sunday, March 10, 2024-02:10

• Q&A Elections in Portugal: from the end of the rescue to disenchantment and rage

• Chega legislative elections: this is the radical right in Portugal that can triple its results

• 'Influencer Case' António Costa, Prime Minister of Portugal, resigns after being investigated in a corruption case

Drive for change in the face of great distrust towards politicians and the Administration.

Portuguese society

is

struggling these days

between the desire to turn around the complex political

and economic situation that the country is experiencing

and the disenchantment

and lack of motivation to achieve it through voting.

Manuela (55 years old) has been working all her life and has her two children over 25 years old still living at home.

They still cannot become independent, nor rent more than a shared room if they want to remain close to Lisbon, where they work.

"Whoever you vote for, I don't think anything will change, politicians only look out for themselves," he says while heading to his mother's house, who receives a meager pension and whom he also helps to meet her domestic expenses.

Paulo and Joana, a 25-year-old couple, take advantage of the day of reflection to go shopping on Avenida de la Liberdade.

They are going to vote this Sunday, although they prefer not to reveal who in conversation with this newspaper: "The country needs a change; public services do not work, salaries are low and taxes are high; and on top of that they say that we are going to a tie ..."

Portugal finds itself at a crossroads.

The polls paint an

almost ungovernable scenario

after this Sunday's elections and after eight years of relatively stable center-left governments, since 2022 with an absolute majority, although also with countless internal problems.

To top it off, the prime minister,

António Costa

, resigned in November after the outbreak of

a corruption case

that now appears to have been diluted.

According to the latest polls made public on Friday - in

Portugal

polls can be published until the day before the reflection day - the center-right

Democratic Alternative

(AD) has a certain lead, of up to six points, over the

Socialist Party

(PS).

But the different forces of the center and the right add up to the same or even slightly less than those of the left, without counting the radical right party Chega, which can triple its 12 deputies, but with which everyone has said that they do not want agree

If this complex scenario is confirmed, the next prime minister could lead a

minority government with serious difficulties in carrying out the budgets

, nor any regulations in the

Assembly of the Republic

.

Even so, many distrust the polls because in 2022 no one was able to even venture the absolute majority that Costa's PS later obtained.

Nuno Magalhães, director of Political Context at LLYC Portugal, predicts, in conversation with this newspaper, that the most likely thing will be a minority government of the center-right leader,

Luís Montenegro

(51 years old), who has promised that he will only govern if he has one more vote than the Socialist Party.

If Montenegro is the candidate with the most votes and the President of the Republic,

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

, appoints him prime minister, the Assembly will have to examine his government program within a maximum period of 10 days.

To move forward, the Parliament, with 230 seats, would not have to reject its program, which would have to count, at least, with the abstention of the PS or Chega

to

avoid the resignation of the Government and a repeat election.

To make matters worse, if the Assembly rejects the program, new elections could not be called before six months, since this is established by the Constitution, which would mean that

Portugal would have more than a year with governments in office

.

If there was a minority executive, it would lead, at best, to a probably short legislature, because without an agreement with the socialists or the radical right, Luís Montenegro would not be able to approve his budgets.

The same would happen if the one who obtains the most votes is the socialist candidate,

Pedro Nuno Santos

(46 years old).

Not a single poll brings him closer to the majority, adding the seats of the PS, the

Left Bloc

, the

Communist Party

and small formations such as

Livre

(ecologists) or the animalists of the

PAN

.

In the hands of the AD candidate - a coalition of three conservative parties led by the

PSD

- is a formula with which he could aspire to stability: closing a coalition government or a legislative agreement with the radical Chega formation (

Basta

in Portuguese). , directed by the populist

André Ventura

(41 years old).

All polls give Chega a minimum of 30 seats.

The problem is that Montenegro has solemnly committed not to make an agreement with them, but many do not believe him: "If he can, he will make an agreement with the extreme right like the PP in Spain," PS sources say in conversation with EL MUNDO.

Some experts also question his commitment.

Raquel García, a researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute specialized in Europe, does not rule it out because "Montenegro is in a moment of consolidation of his own leadership, since he has only been at the head of the party for a year and a half."

And his best record of service, she alleges, would be a Government that could complete certain reforms in four years of mandate, something impossible in a minority.

In recent days, AD leaders in favor of an agreement with Chega have privately advocated agreeing on a government with the radicals headed by another right-wing candidate, since Montenegro has promised not to do so.

But the newspaper

Expresso

has revealed that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, rejects that possibility.

And

in Portugal the head of state appoints the prime minister

.

The

electoral campaigns

of the PS and AD seem to have had their roles changed.

The socialists have boasted of Portugal's good macroeconomic data after eight years of Costa governments: public debt has fallen from 100% of GDP, an unusual figure for Portuguese accounts, and the rating agencies have raised Portugal's rating to A-, according to Standard & Poor's, which is several steps higher than when the PS entered the Government.

The unemployment rate, on the other hand, is below 7% and inflation has been controlled to the current 2.3%.

The centre-right, for its part, "seems to have copied the PS programme", as denounced by the party now led by Pedro Nuno Santos.

The right has carried out a social campaign with promises to raise the minimum wage, contain housing prices, reduce healthcare waiting lists or improve education.

Margarida Davim, journalist for

Diário de Noticias

and CNN Portugal, highlights that during the last legislature with an absolute majority of the PS (2022-2023), "the political crisis has worsened" and "the most pressing problems of the Portuguese, although the debt is more controlled".

Davim confirms that the socialists are stronger among the older electorate because the fear remains that there will be cuts to pensions again as in times of the bailout.

Among young people, Chega's populist formulas or the change represented by Democratic Alternative - its motto is

Safe Mudança

- are more successful.

The candidate of the left has not even been general secretary of the PS for two months after Costa's resignation and has faced "the most difficult campaign", highlights Davim, after the frustration generated because the majority of 2022 was dissolved in just over year and a half.

Right now, in the PS there is a feeling that "António Costa resigned for nothing."

And that "due to corruption investigations behind which in the end there is nothing, everything has gone to waste: the necessary reforms have not been completed" and the new leader "has not had time to consolidate his project, not even to settle in leadership," they explain.

The professor of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Lisbon Luís Tomé considers that the last Costa Government (2022-2023) was "a missed opportunity."

"The necessary reforms were not made even though it had a majority, either due to lack of capacity or fear of taking risks," he adds.

But "the recovery and resilience funds have not been efficiently managed either," nor "the main problems have been addressed."

Finally, those less than two years have been plagued by scandals and errors that have included the resignation of two ministers and 11 secretaries of State.

To top it all off, it all ended with Costa's own resignation.

As the former

premier

said in the election campaign, the last two years have been more difficult for him than managing the pandemic.

The socialists allege that since 2015, they have raised the minimum wage from 505 euros per month to the current 820 and that their commitment is to reach 1,000 euros in three years.

They also affirm that spending on health and education has grown significantly, although there is still some way to go.

The center-right, however, has taken up all these social flags during the electoral campaign and has promised that it will be able to improve public services and that it will also do so by lowering taxes.

What is clear is that whoever manages to form a Government will have before them the most difficult challenges and perhaps with a slim majority: containing the unstoppable escalation of housing, which is expelling more than half of the population from the purchase or rental market. population;

confront the serious problems with public officials, who are mobilizing due to their low salaries;

reduce waiting lists or solve the loss of teachers in public education.

Doubts regarding the final data of abstention

THE.

S.

Elections in Portugal usually have a high abstention.

In 2019, only 49% voted.

In 2022, it rose to 57%.

This time, given the uncertainty about who will be the winner, it is possible that it will get closer to 60% again, but no one makes predictions.

Several factors influence this data, as experts point out: firstly, there is significant apathy and a distancing from politics among large sectors of the interior of the country, among young people and many disenchanted voters.

Secondly, a large part of the census is abroad due to the traditional emigration of the Portuguese.

Of the 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic, four are elected in constituencies abroad: two are elected by Portuguese people living in other European countries and another two by those from the rest of the world.

And abstention outside is very high.

Lastly, the census is not yet well prepared and, although it has improved, it often includes deceased Portuguese, according to sources close to the Government.