NATO's largest military exercise in Europe since the end of the Cold War Could a Russian attack be anticipated?

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which regards Russia as the biggest threat due to its continued invasion of Ukraine, is currently conducting the largest military exercise in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

The exercise appears to be a response to an attack by Russia, and is aimed at strongly restraining Russia.

From January to the end of May this year, NATO is conducting land, sea and air military exercises involving more than 90,000 soldiers and more than 1,100 combat vehicles in a region that includes member states close to Russia, such as the Baltic states and Poland. It is said to be the largest military exercise in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, NATO regards Russia as the biggest threat and plans to deploy approximately 300,000 quick response troops within 30 days to protect member countries in the event of an emergency. We aim to strengthen unit coordination and mobility.

Earlier this month, an exercise in northern Poland designed to quickly move large troops to the front lines was made public.

Tanks and armored vehicles from the militaries of nine countries, including the United States, France, and Poland, were crossing the river one after another on amphibious vehicles and other vehicles where there were no bridges, while escorted by helicopters and fighter planes.

NATO says the series of exercises will ``try and re-evaluate defense plans against enemies at the same level,'' and it appears to be a response to an attack by Russia, with the aim of strongly restraining Russia.

Polish President Duda, who inspected the exercise on the 5th of this month, said, ``It is clear that the greatest threat now comes from Russia. "It is also a response," he said, emphasizing the need for urgent preparations in anticipation of Russia attacking not only Ukraine but also NATO.

European government official: ``Russia may also attack NATO member countries''

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to drag on, a number of European government officials have expressed concern that Russia could attack NATO member states as early as the next few years. .

In an interview with the local newspaper Tagesspiegel published in mid-January, German Defense Minister Pistorius said, ``Europe is once again facing a military threat that has not existed in Europe for the past 30 years.'' He recognized that the threat posed by Russia until the end of the Cold War between East and West in 2015 has returned.

"We have to assume that Putin will one day attack a NATO member state. We don't think Russia will attack us now, but our experts believe that within the next five to eight years, Russia will We will analyze it once it is ready."

Furthermore, Denmark's Defense Minister Poulsen told a local newspaper early last month that his assessment of the Russian threat had changed, stating, ``Over the next three to five years, Russia will test NATO's collective self-defense rights and unity.'' "The possibility cannot be denied," he said, indicating the possibility that Russia could launch an attack aimed at weakening NATO.

In addition, Sweden's civil defense minister Borin, who changed its policy of military neutrality and joined NATO in response to the Russian invasion, stated in January that ``war may break out in Sweden'' and called on the people to prepare. I am.

Weapons production capacity is an issue

Europe is aiming to strengthen the region's defense industry to counter the threat from Russia, and Prime Minister Scholz and Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen attended the groundbreaking ceremony for a new factory of a major German defense company last month. .

Europe is facing challenges in its weapons production capacity, with the European Union's goal of providing 1 million shells and other items to Ukraine not being realized.

The background to this is that after the end of the Cold War between East and West in 1989, many NATO member states reduced their defense spending.

According to a summary by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, France's defense spending as a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) was around 3% during the Cold War, but after the Cold War it gradually decreased to the low 1% range. Germany's rate was over 2%, but it remained at the 1% level from three years after the end of the Cold War until the invasion of Ukraine.

This year, NATO announced that 18 of its 31 member countries, excluding Sweden, which joined this month, are expected to achieve their 2% target, emphasizing that they are working to increase defense spending. .

However, Melling of the German Council on Foreign Relations, who is an expert on European security policy, said, ``NATO's 2% target assumes continued spending, which many European countries have not done. . Even if we spend 2% over the past year, we won't be able to overcome the structural deficiencies in our national defense capabilities."

A significant increase in defense spending will also lead to cuts in other budgets, so it will be interesting to see whether Europe, which is said to have differing views on the threat posed by Russia, will be able to agree on an increase.

Expert: “Russia’s statement pointing to the possibility of an attack shows a sense of crisis”

Christian Melling of the German Council on Foreign Relations, an expert on European security policy, said that the repeated statements pointing to the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO are due to the Russian threat revealed by the invasion of Ukraine. He points out that this is an expression of a sense of crisis over inadequate preparations on the European side.

"We are now witnessing Russia's imperialistic and aggressive pursuit of its goals, and its ability to produce and rearm weapons in, if not all areas," said Melling. "We can prepare for war more quickly than before," he said, posing a threat because Russia is now able to rapidly expand its armaments under a wartime regime.

Regarding the possibility of an attack on NATO, he expressed the view that Russia is no longer hesitating to take risks by invading Ukraine.

``For example, we will seize the capital of Lithuania, a Baltic country, and ask Germany and France to negotiate whether they will sacrifice their own soldiers.Russia wants NATO and the EU to self-destruct over these issues.'' ``There is a risk that NATO could carry out limited attacks against member countries in an attempt to weaken NATO, and that deterrence needs to be strengthened.''

Last November, Mering compiled a report on the Russian threat, saying that 280,000 soldiers could be trained each year on wartime conditions over the next six to 10 years after the heavy fighting in Ukraine ends. Our analysis suggests that it may be preparing to attack NATO.

On the other hand, regarding European preparedness, they say that air defense capabilities, long-range firepower, combat vehicles, etc. are insufficient, saying, ``We have the necessary weapons, but the quantity is small.The scale of the defense industry is also very small, and high-quality weapons are not available.'' It can be produced, but the production quantity is small.What the Russian invasion taught us is that quantity is itself quality.''In order to compete with Russia, which boasts of quantity, it is necessary not only to improve the quality of weapons but also the quantity. It is said that it is essential to secure this.

He stressed that spending must increase over a long period of time to get the defense industry back on its feet and to acquire enough military power, both in quality and quantity, to deter Russia.