Enlarge image
Nepalese migrant workers in the kitchen: “Gateway to Europe”
Photo: Patricia de Melo Moreira / AFP
SPIEGEL:
Portugal was long considered immune to populism.
Four years ago, the right-wing Chega party got just 1.3 percent - before Sunday's elections it is now at 20 percent in the polls.
How could the mood change so quickly?
Carvalho:
The past few years have been like tinder for Chega.
The cost of living has risen sharply since the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and many people can barely afford daily life despite having a full-time job.
At the same time there were several corruption scandals.
The reason why there are now elections at all is because Prime Minister António Costa's official residence was searched.
Although he is no longer under investigation, something stuck with many people.
People now think: The elites are corrupt.
This is a perfect template for Vega boss André Ventura, who is a truly telegenic speaker and has always railed against the elites.
SPIEGEL:
For a long time it seemed as if Prime Minister Costa could lead the country in a good direction.
After years of crisis, he managed to reliably reduce debts while still investing generously and reducing unemployment.
At the last election he won an absolute majority.
Does this election mark the end of the Portuguese exceptional path?
Carvalho:
It's the end of his reign, but certainly not the end of his career.
Costa could become president or take on an international post.
For many socialist supporters, however, it is a repetition of a trauma.
The party has only been able to win an absolute majority once before, in 2005 under José Sócrates.
He was later investigated for corruption.
The process has not yet been completed to this day.
Nevertheless, the socialists are not yet completely defeated; the end is open.
Chega is a one-man party without a real program.
They particularly benefit from the numerous corruption investigations and deep-rooted stereotypes about minorities.
SPIEGEL:
A flagship of the current government was the liberal migration policy.
Hardly any other country in Europe has been as open to immigration in recent years as Portugal.
What do you expect if the Conservatives win?
Carvalho:
I don't expect them to change much.
The bourgeois camp also knows that Portugal needs immigrants because there are not enough workers in the country.
In this respect, I assume that this policy will continue.
Not even Chega boss André Ventura is calling for a stop to immigration during the election campaign.
SPIEGEL:
That sounds unusual for a nationalist and right-wing populist party.
Carvalho:
Chega has been agitating against Roma, Muslims and other minorities for years.
But they do not make up the decisive part of the immigrants.
To date, hardly any refugees from war zones reach Portugal.
Most migrants come directly to work, many of them from India or Nepal.
Many Africans from the former colonies and Brazilians have been living in the country for decades.
The view of immigrants is therefore different in Portugal.
The main thing is whether people are useful for our economy.
SPIEGEL:
Is that why the majority of surveys still support a liberal migration policy?
Carvalho:
Every large farmer in the Alentejo knows that there are not enough Portuguese to help him with the harvest.
It is similar on the construction sites in Lisbon and Porto.
That's why migrants have been coming to us for 30 years.
I am now counting the fourth wave.
Furthermore, we ourselves know what migration means.
Until 2016, even more people emigrated from Portugal than entered the country.
Many Portuguese have connections abroad and in the former colonies.
This makes everyday life less stressful, even Chega has nominated a dark-skinned candidate with Brazilian roots.
SPIEGEL:
Nevertheless, you warn against romanticizing the Portuguese model.
Why?
Carvalho:
The migration policy in my country is very pragmatic.
It thrives on people coming as long as there are jobs and leaving when the economy stumbles.
This only works as long as we lack both very low-skilled and highly specialized workers who are flexible, harvest workers and expats.
SPIEGEL:
And what goes wrong?
Carvalho:
Our welfare state is poorly positioned.
For example, there is almost no social housing in Portugal.
In the current crisis we are feeling the consequences.
Prices are rising and rising, but no one is doing anything decisively about it.
The Golden Visa program exacerbated these problems and therefore had to be stopped.
The integration also works poorly.
Many of the tens of thousands of Asian migrants don't even try to learn our language.
Of course you don't need them in the fields either.
Most people come simply because you can be naturalized after seven to eight years of work and then receive an EU passport.
Portugal is now considered the gateway to Europe.
SPIEGEL:
Which is also viewed with skepticism there.
There are increasing reports of human trafficking and debt bondage.
How long will this last?
Carvalho:
Our politicians know that they cannot loudly advocate for immigrants to come.
But as long as they don't do that, no one will stop migration and people will keep coming.
The berries from our fields are not sold in Portugal, but in northern Europe.
The Europeans are benefiting from the fact that young men from Kathmandu are now taking over the harvest here and washing the dishes in tourist regions.
The governments in the northern states are perhaps even happy that the migrants are moving on with an EU passport and are therefore not included in the statistics as foreigners.
In European comparison, their number is still small anyway.
SPIEGEL:
Today, the placement of workers takes place primarily through agencies and dubious channels in the countries of origin.
You can't call that a good solution.
Carvalho:
From my perspective as a researcher, migration is almost always a business;
This is not about justice.
If you have 1000 euros, you might just end up in the neighboring country.
For 3000 you can travel across the Mediterranean in a rubber dinghy.
And for 10,000 euros you can fly in on a tourist visa and look for work.
But the migrants usually know what they are getting into.
Many people calculate exactly how long it will take to pay off their debts.
And people want to work and can do it here.
The Portuguese model is very honest, at least in this respect.
SPIEGEL:
What happens after the parliamentary elections?
Carvalho:
Since the conservative and left-wing camps are roughly equal according to polls, it is difficult to predict a winner.
Chega's right-wing populists could become kingmakers, even if the conservatives reject any possibility of cooperation.
But it is also quite possible that no camp will receive a clear majority and will be elected again next year.
Until then, the social problems may worsen.
But I am sure that Portugal will remain a country of immigration, no matter who is in power.
Immigration is part of our success in recent years.
This article is part of the Global Society project
AreaWhat is the Global Society project?open
Under the title “Global Society,” reporters from
Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe
report on injustices in a globalized world, socio-political challenges and sustainable development.
The reports, analyses, photo series, videos and podcasts appear in a separate section in SPIEGEL's foreign department.
The project is long-term and is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF).
You can find a detailed FAQ with questions and answers about the project here.
AreaWhat exactly does the funding look like?open
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) has been supporting the project since 2019 for an initial period of three years with a total of around 2.3 million euros - around 760,000 euros per year.
In 2021, the project was extended under the same conditions by almost three and a half years until spring 2025.
AreaAre the journalistic contents independent of the foundation? expand
Yes.
The editorial content is created without any influence from the Gates Foundation.
AreaDo other media also have similar projects? expand
Yes.
Major European media outlets such as "The Guardian" and "El País" have set up similar sections on their news pages with "Global Development" and "Planeta Futuro" respectively, with the support of the Gates Foundation.
AreaHave there already been similar projects at SPIEGEL? expand
In recent years, SPIEGEL has already implemented two projects with the European Journalism Center (EJC) and the support of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation: the “Expedition ÜberMorgen” about global sustainability goals and the journalistic refugee project “The New Arrivals”, as part of this project several award-winning multimedia reports on the topics of migration and flight have been created.
AreaWhere can I find all publications on the Global Society?open
The pieces can be found at SPIEGEL on the Global Society topic page.