Philippe Folgado // Photo credit: AFP 6:11 p.m., March 8, 2024

Four months after the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, the Portuguese are called to the polls for early legislative elections this Sunday.

The Socialist Party, in power for eight years, could well lose it to the right-wing Democratic Alliance.

But things don't look that simple. 

An election with an undecided result.

The Portuguese are called to the polls this Sunday to renew the 230 deputies who make up the Assembly of the Republic.

19 parties are running for these legislative elections.

An early vote organized after the resignation of the socialist Prime Minister, Antonio Costa, involved in an influence peddling affair, and the dissolution of Parliament announced by the President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, in the process.

In total, more than nine million Portuguese people are expected to go to the polling stations.

Without forgetting the 1.5 million voters living abroad who will also be able to vote by mail (until March 9) or directly at the consulate (March 9 and 10).

In France, this concerns 238,000 people according to the National Elections Commission, contacted by Europe 1. The party which emerges victorious from this election will be invited by the Head of State to form a government.

A task that promises to be difficult. 

The right-wing Democratic Alliance leads the polls 

After eight years in power, the Socialist Party (PS) could lose it to the Democratic Alliance (AD), a coalition formed by the right and center-right parties of the PSD, the CDS and the Monarchical Party, led by Luis Montenegro.

The latter is even credited with 34% of the votes against 28% for the PS in the latest Cesop poll for RTP / Antena 1 and the PÚBLICO newspaper. 

But if the AD wins, this does not guarantee it coming to power.

Indeed, if the four Portuguese left parties join forces, they will be credited with 41% of the vote, compared to the AD's 34%.

Note that the coalition could climb up to 40% if it reaches an agreement with the Liberal Initiative, a right-wing party credited with 6%. 

The fact remains that in this scenario, the left could block a right-wing government and thus manage to remain in power. 

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The nationalist Chega party, the third political force in the country?

To succeed in imposing its government, the Democratic Alliance could therefore opt for another alliance, with Chega.

An option which is far from unanimous within the latter, since the Chega ("Enough" in French), is a nationalist and conservative party.

Created in 2019 by André Ventura, former sports commentator, the group is currently growing in popularity and benefits from the protest votes of Portuguese people tired of the repeated scandals affecting Portuguese politics.

Credited with 17% of voting intentions, Chega is in a position to become the third party in the country and the arbiter of these elections.  

Aware of the situation, André Ventura, the founder of the party, has already made it known that he would not support a right-wing government if his party has no place in the equation.

But for his part, the leader of the AD, Luis Montenegro, said he was ready to take the risk of governing with a relative majority, therefore without the nationalist party. 

A situation which would not be so problematic for Chega, since beyond the legislative elections, André Ventura's party also has the European elections in its sights.

He hopes to send several of his members to Brussels, within the Identity and Democracy group, in which the National Rally is located.