Hundreds demonstrated last January to protest the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland (Anatolia)

Al Jazeera Net learned that what was leaked regarding the details of the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland stipulating that Addis Ababa lease a 20-kilometre area near the port of Berbera in exchange for Addis Ababa’s recognition that Somaliland is an independent state and granting it a 20% share in Ethiopian Airlines, is not Ethiopia’s only motive behind Conclusion of the agreement.

Although the terms of the agreement, some of which have been revealed, will - if implemented - represent strategic and economic gains for both parties, an informed African source revealed to Al Jazeera Net that huge oil discoveries off the coast of Somaliland, specifically along the coast of the Nogal Valley between Somaliland and Puntland, represent an incentive. Ethiopia was behind the conclusion of the agreement, and it imports all of its oil needs.

The source explained that moving forward with the implementation of the agreement that was suddenly announced on January 1 could lead to an armed conflict that might develop into a regional war around this region, the capital of which is the city of Las Anod, the administrative capital of the Sool region in Somaliland. Which is located along the oil-rich Nogal Valley between Somaliland and Puntland.

The same source expressed his fears that the agreement and the repercussions of its implementation would set the process of rebuilding the Somali state and its institutions back years, as well as giving the extremist organization of the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement a new lease of life.

In response to a question from Al Jazeera Net about the possibility of implementing the agreement, Professor Francois Frey, a professor at the Faculty of Military Sciences at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, expressed his belief that the matter “faces major obstacles; Ethiopia is not very welcome in Somalia, not to mention what diplomatic measures are being taken by the Somali central government.” And Al-Shabaab’s reaction to the Ethiopian presence.”

Hundreds demonstrated in Mogadishu against the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, stressing that they would not give up an inch of their land (Anatolia)

Professor Fry explained that the agreement, by its nature, does not have the support of the main players in Somalia and the region.

He said, "I believe that the devil lies in the details of the violation of national sovereignty after a semi-autonomous region adopted the behavior of a sovereign state."

He added, "In our estimation, if Somalia succeeds in obtaining a decision from the African Union that this agreement is illegal and represents a violation of Somalia's sovereignty, and if both parties to the agreement ignore the continental organization's decision, the possibilities of conflict will escalate sharply."

In response to a question about the possibilities of war breaking out between regional actors on the one hand and Ethiopia, which lacks oil, in light of the massive oil discoveries off the coast of Somaliland, Frey stressed that this is linked to an Ethiopian occupation that helps Somaliland demand “independence,” and then the latter’s demand. With its territorial and economic waters in the ocean, where reserves are located.

However, Fry reiterated that “if these reserves were on land, the matter would have been easier. As for reserves at sea, they are a game with other rules, including obtaining the right to territorial jurisdiction, and then convincing major oil companies to extract those reserves. It was a court of law.” International Justice has settled a dispute regarding territorial and economic waters between Kenya and Somalia in favor of the latter.”

The professor explained that he does not personally believe that the countries of the Horn of Africa can wage a war over oil reserves in the sea unless they seek the help of major external powers, which indicates that Turkey has become part of the game by agreeing to help protect - and perhaps defend - Somali territorial and economic waters in exchange for Economic benefits not yet known.

However, Fry again expressed his doubts about the possibility of Turkey entering a maritime conflict in the Horn of Africa region.

Regarding whether the agreement could provide a pretext for the Al-Shabaab movement, which was defeated by the Ethiopian army in 2006, especially since the movement still considers the Ethiopian forces - participating in the peacekeeping forces - as occupying forces, in addition to a setback to the state-building process in Somalia for years, Frey stressed that “Al-Shabaab is still an influential player in Somali politics, and the agreement will strengthen it, and the response to the attempt to implement it will lead to an alliance between the Somali Al-Shabaab movement and the federal government,” he stressed that any Ethiopian presence on Somaliland will bring Al-Shabaab and Somalia together against this presence.

Source: Al Jazeera