Nikki Haley's electoral base in the spotlight.
The candidate announced on Wednesday March 6 that she was throwing in the towel from the Republican primaries, after her crushing defeat on Super Tuesday against Donald Trump.
Barring any drama, it is therefore the former president who will face Joe Biden in the presidential election next November.
However, the former Republican governor of South Carolina and former US ambassador to the UN has not expressed explicit support for Donald Trump.
On the other hand, she warned the billionaire businessman that he would have to “deserve” the votes of his more moderate supporters – who Joe Biden also covets.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that about half of Republicans supporting Nikki Haley would vote for Donald Trump, while 37% would go for Joe Biden, the Washington Post reports.
Some 12% are considering abstention, another vote, or are undecided.
Trump's agenda "simplified"
At 52, Nikki Haley stood up to the former president by playing the style and generational change card to the fullest and by defending a more moderate political line than Donald Trump.
As the rare Republican woman of color in a primary where white men predominate, she far exceeded expectations.
Although her early poll numbers were modest, she impressed in the debates, facing rivals such as former Vice President Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who was considered ex-Vice President's main rival. president.
Also readRepublican primaries: what is Nikki Haley playing, the candidate who persists against Trump?
After his abandonment, Donald Trump called via his social network Truth "all Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our nation", describing Joe Biden as an enemy who is destroying the country.
No longer needing to campaign for the primaries, he can now concentrate entirely on his probable new duel in November with the current president.
“The abandonment of Nikki Haley somewhat simplifies her agenda, which will also already be complicated due to the various legal cases,” confirms Lauric Henneton, lecturer at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ ), in reference to the numerous investigations targeting the former president, including one on the assault on the Capitol and one on the White House archives.
"The element to remember from these primaries is that voters (who voted Haley) mobilized even in the absence of suspense. These voters find themselves a little lost after Super Tuesday and have three options: vote Trump, even if they are not completely convinced, vote Biden to prevent Trump's return to power, or not vote at all."
But an unknown remains.
Will Nikki Haley support Donald Trump?
After having succeeded in gaining influence and attracting broad support within the Republican Party, Nikki Haley intends to make her rallying pay dearly.
She said: "At its best, politics is about rallying people to your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. Now it's up to him to choose. "
I end my campaign with the same words I began it from the Book of Joshua.
I direct them to all Americans, but especially to so many of the women and girls out there who put their faith in our campaign.
Be strong and courageous.
Don't be afraid.
Do not be discouraged.
For God… pic.twitter.com/XAwgOGzKdy
— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) March 6, 2024
“His statements are ambiguous,” analyzes Steven Ekovich, historian and professor of political science at the American University of Paris.
"If she does, it could compromise the coherence of her entire campaign and give her an image of someone who cannot hold a strong line. On the other hand, if she does not come to Donald Trump's rescue and he loses in November, she could embody the person who is able to create momentum in a party that is not led by Donald Trump. He can't win without the support of Nikki Haley, but she also needs to be seen as loyal to the party. So she is in a dilemma."
Looking for independent voters
For his part, Joe Biden affirmed in a press release that "there is a place for Nikki Haley's supporters in my campaign", testifying to his strategy to broaden his electoral base. While he arouses a lack of enthusiasm for his re-election and his support for Israel in the conflict in Gaza arouses indignation, the president is trying to conquer independent voters.
See also Gaza: Americans of Arab origin swear to “punish” Biden at the polls
“Since the start of his campaign, Joe Biden has clearly adjusted his approach to subjects, distinguishing MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters, whom he recognizes as difficult to convince, from other voters,” explains Ludivine Gilli, director of the North America observatory of the Jean Jaurès Foundation.
Faced with a Donald Trump who continues to assert against all evidence that the 2020 election was rigged and who threatens to throw in prison anyone who opposes him, "Joe Biden presents himself as a defender of democracy and hopes to win over favors either of the moderate Republican electorate or of independent voters,” continues the expert.
In total, approximately 570,000 voters across Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries.
If this number remains modest, it could exert crucial influence in November, with some of these key states having been won by only a few tens of thousands of votes in 2020. For example, in North Carolina, Nikki Haley received 250,000 votes .
In 2020, Donald Trump won this state by less than 75,000 votes over Joe Biden, who won the national election.
Similarly, in exit polls in South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire, more than two-thirds of Nikki Haley's voters said they would not vote for Donald Trump in November.
With the withdrawal of Nikki Haley, Donald Trump could fear a loss of votes.
Electoral geography
In this vote, the influence of electoral geography, particularly in the suburbs traditionally supported by the Republican Party, must be taken into account according to the experts interviewed by France 24. "These suburbs represented the American dream of security, education of quality and property with a garden, values that the Republicans sought to preserve by proposing favorable tax reforms", explains Lauric Henneton.
“But over time, these suburbs have experienced a demographic shift with college-educated voters tending to vote Democratic and be more socially progressive. This shift has favored Democrats recently, particularly in cities like Atlanta, Georgia. and Phoenix, Arizona.”
The Democrats could also lose votes in the absence of an alternative, for example "among Muslims in Michigan", continues Lauric Henneton.
If these voters do not mobilize in sufficient numbers to vote for Joe Biden, Donald Trump could benefit.
"This phenomenon, called 'first past the post' or 'winner take all', means that there is only one round and that any loss of votes for one candidate can benefit the other", explains the 'university.
Eight months before the return of a Biden-Trump duel, it is still too early to predict with certainty where Nikki Haley's supporters will position themselves.
“We are faced with many unknowns. Voters only make their decision in the week to ten days before the vote,” concludes Steven Ekovich.
The France 24 summary of the week
invites you to look back at the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 application