What does Transnistria expect from Russia?

Ukrainian border guards stand at a checkpoint on the border with the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova (Reuters)

Moscow -

The Transnistrian authorities' resort to requesting assistance from Russia, due to what they described as the "increasing pressures" they are being exposed to from Moldova, constitutes rich material for analyzes and attempts to read the expected form of Russian action, especially in the circumstances of the complex crisis with the West and the war in Ukraine.

The most important questions revolve around whether the long-term conflict has begun to disintegrate, and whether this trend is irreversible, and will the Dniester River become a new front in the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation or a new spark of escalation in relations between the West and Russia?

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This comes after a long period in which the Transnistrian problem seemed like a marginal political issue, a classic conflict frozen according to the formula “no peace, no war.”

But once Russia and Ukraine, the two guarantors of the peace process in the separatist region, entered into an open confrontation, the chances of escalating the conflict in the region increased sharply.

Although this appeal was not limited to requesting assistance from Russia, but also included the Secretary-General of the United Nations, the European Parliament, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and other parties, the most prominent positions were the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement, which came out a few hours after the region’s appeal, He emphasized that Russia always carefully considers requests received from him.

Over the long years of frozen conflict in the region, the authorities there were accustomed to cautious and balanced policies, but the recent call was placed by some in the context of more radical trends in which Transnistria could follow the option of turning into a new region in Russia, in a repetition of the scenario of Crimea and the Republic of Donbass.

Transnistria, whose population is 60% Russians and Ukrainians, sought to secede from Moldova even before the collapse of the Soviet Union, fearing that Moldova would join Romania in the wake of escalating nationalist tendencies there.

After a failed attempt by the Moldovan authorities in 1992 to solve the problem by force, Transnistria became a region not effectively controlled by Chisinau, the capital of Moldova.

Russian World Island

All conflict situations in the post-Soviet space are unique, it is difficult to combine them under a certain common denominator, and even within the most alarming scenarios of the development of the crisis in the Transnistrian region, it is difficult to draw certain parallels with, for example, Crimea or Donbass. .

Strategic affairs analyst Roland Bijamov, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, considered that repeating the Donbas scenario is out of the question, “because if Russia decides to intervene militarily to lift the siege on the region, this would cause it to lose its supporters in Moldova, and put the forces sympathetic to it in an awkward position, given that it "It demands that Moldova remain in a neutral position in the Russian-Western tension."

He added, "In addition, the option of independence is not a priority for the region itself, as what is important for them is for Moldova to maintain neutrality and refuse to merge with Romania, and the primary goal is to lift the siege."

Bigamov explains the reasons for requesting assistance as “increasing economic pressure on the region from Chisinau, and concerns about provocations against it by Moldova at the instigation of NATO, in an effort to create a new hotbed of tension for Russia.”

He continues that the region has long-term partnerships with Russia, and it can be called “the island of the Russian world,” given the hostile environment surrounding it represented by Moldova and the Ukrainian authorities.

According to him, "The decision of the Transnistrian authorities to turn to Russia for help indicates that the situation is actually getting worse and is taking on threatening forms."

But it does not rule out that Moldova itself has its own concerns, because it does not want to escalate the atmosphere into ill-considered forms, as any spark that goes out of control could lead to unpleasant consequences for the Moldovan authorities, and may spread the crisis inside them.

Begamov believes that the way out of the crisis lies in Moldova maintaining its neutral status and not entering NATO, so the question remains whether Moldova will join the European Union as an independent state or as an integrated part of Romanian geography.

Warnings of involvement

European affairs expert Andrei Kamkin believes that the region's situation differs from the rest of the hotspots following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“Compared to Nagorno-Karabakh, for example, Azerbaijan took the initiative to restore the region, although it could have sought help from Turkey. It entered the game (the war) alone and succeeded. But in the case of Transnistria, it is not Chisinau that stands at the forefront of the opposition against separatism, but Kiev, which believes that involving the region in a conflict with Moldova represents one of Moscow’s containment tools.”

The expert also questions the form of support that the region is requesting from Russia, suggesting that the leadership of Transnistria left the implementation of these measures to the Russian side, “because it itself does not understand what can be done,” as he put it.

Kamkin estimates that “these demands were not agreed upon with the Russian authorities, otherwise the measures would have been determined before the appeal was made.”

He says, "Moscow may have been aware of the preparation of such a statement, but since it was far away and busy in Ukraine, it did not attach enough importance to it."

The current tension brings to mind a similar crisis that took place in 2006, when Moldova tried to stop Transnistria’s exports and imports, before Russia temporarily assumed the responsibility of guaranteeing the social obligations of the rebel region’s budget, which suggests the hypothesis that a decision was taken to reduce the damage to the population through direct financial support, and not through a practical process. Military by Russia.

Source: Al Jazeera