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Finger pointing: Donald Trump points to the audience at his victory celebration in Mar-a-Lago on the evening of Super Tuesday

Photo: Marco Bello / REUTERS

“Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the next President of the United States,” calls the moderator into the large hall of the Mar-a-Lago Club: “President Donald J. Trump.”

The older man in the dark suit with the orange make-up on his face clenches his fist once, twice, then walks up to the stage.

Allows himself to be cheered by the guests chosen by his own people at his own beach club.

Clap along yourself while his security guards shoo the photographers away from the podium.

And then he stands alone at the top of the lectern.

“They call it Super Tuesday for a reason,” says Trump.

"That was a unique day, an incredible moment in the history of our country." And after a few harsh attacks on Joe Biden and migrants, he enthuses: "This was a day we were waiting for."

Above all, he himself has been waiting for this day: since his inglorious departure from the White House on January 20, 2021, which he tried to prevent with all possible maneuvers after his election defeat against Biden.

Comeback of a political pensioner

At the time, many wrote off Trump as a political pensioner - especially when a series of charges were brought against him, including for the storming of the Capitol by his fans two weeks earlier.

Younger demagogues, especially Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, seemed to have the future as leaders of the Republican Party.

But on this Super Tuesday, when people in 15 of 50 states vote for their Republican presidential candidate, only one person triumphs among the Reds: the 77-year-old former president.

Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Oklahoma, Maine, Alabama.

Massachusetts, Texas and and and.

Trump is clearing one state after the next.

This means he is almost in the final.

DeSantis, who was once so highly regarded, left the field weeks ago.

And Nikki Haley, Trump's last remaining opponent, can only hold her own in small, traditionally liberal Vermont.

She is refraining from any public appearance on this election night;

It's quite possible that she'll move back soon too.

Trump doesn't even mention her name in his victory speech.

Things are working out for him.

The US Supreme Court has just overturned the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove Trump from the November ballot because of his role in the storming of the Capitol.

In addition, the Supreme Court judges, some of whom were once appointed by Trump himself, want to clarify whether the ex-president enjoys immunity from criminal prosecution.

This will at least delay a main trial against him;

Other procedures also drag on like chewing gum.

And even if they were to start, the experience of the past few months has shown that these processes tend to strengthen the Trump disciples' bond with their hero and make them believe even more fervently in a conspiracy by dark forces.

No US politician has such hardcore fans as Trump.

This was evident at one of his appearances in mid-February in an aircraft hangar north of Detroit - when fans lined up for almost three hours to get in, despite minus 5 degrees Celsius and icy westerly winds.

And when Trump finally floated across the queue on the landing approach in his private jet, hundreds of loyal supporters cheered their leader from below.

Trump appears more dynamic and agile than Biden

In many nationwide opinion polls, Trump is clearly ahead of Biden: most recently around 48 to 43 percent in a survey for the New York Times.

More importantly, he also has a more or less clear lead in election-deciding “swing states” such as Michigan, Georgia and Nevada.

And while 73 percent of US citizens consider the 81-year-old Biden to be too old to be president, “only” 42 percent say the same about Trump.

He is just four years younger, even sometimes, and he makes similarly spectacular misfires as his opponent - for example recently when he confused Biden with Barack Obama.

But Trump appears more dynamic and agile than Biden, especially when he gives free rein to his hatred at the lectern.

Like in his victory speech in Palm Beach, when he claimed: "Our cities have been overrun with migrant crime, and that is Biden migrant crime." In fact, scientific studies show that undocumented immigrants are less violent than Americans are.

This Super Tuesday, it looks like Trump will march into the White House.

But there are still exactly eight months until the all-important day: November 5th.

Nikki Haley was never a serious competitor for Trump.

It is not an option for die-hard Republican voters, most of whom are committed to Trump.

But Biden is a different caliber - as doddering as the oldest president in the history of the United States may sometimes seem.

On November 5th, all kinds of US citizens with extremely diverse opinions and philosophies of life will go to vote.

And outside of the conservative Republican core electorate, Trump has hardly captured hearts and minds.

Even on Palm Beach, the enthusiasm outside of Mar-a-Lago is limited.

On Worth Avenue, two miles from Trump's headquarters, there are no Trump fans anywhere and there is no television with an election ticker.

The rich and famous of the island do what they do pretty much every evening: they go out to eat, drink, smoke cigars, Super Tuesday is only a peripheral topic of conversation.

And on the bridge at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump supporters often gathered in droves on such occasions, today there are only a few anglers and a couple smoking weed.

In the three most important elections of the past six years, Trump and the Republicans have disappointed each time.

First, the Democrats won the majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 congressional elections.

In 2020, Biden triumphed over Trump and his party secured the majority in the Senate.

And finally, contrary to their expectations, the Republicans managed to win back the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms, but not the Senate.

Every time, Trump's Republicans had the same problem: They failed to win over enough swing voters, and especially swing voters.

And every time it was largely due to their top man.

There is no question: Trump attracts a lot of people.

But Trump also repulses many people - with his boasting, his chaotic first presidency, his extremist positions, ignorance and hateful rhetoric: for example when he claims that migrants are "poisoning the blood of our country."

And so Biden and the Democrats managed to mobilize droves of independent voters, especially in the particularly contested swing state metropolises such as Las Vegas or Phoenix, Milwaukee or Detroit, Philadelphia or Atlanta: often not for themselves, but against Trump.

The Democratic election campaign machine hasn't warmed up yet

“Many people who are not particularly politically interested are not yet thinking about the November elections,” says Rebecca Gill, a political scientist at the University of Nevada.

»But as the elections approach, they will be confronted with Trump again.

And they will remember what they disliked about him during his time as president.

In addition, the Democrats' election campaign machine hasn't really warmed up yet, says Gill.

In 2020, for example, a broad coalition of unions, ethnic minority groups and other interest groups mobilized for Biden.

They sent their volunteers door-to-door, launched social media and telephone campaigns, convincing hesitant voters to vote.

Helped citizens register to vote.

In the end, 81 million people voted for Biden: 15 million more than for Hillary Clinton in 2016. And so Biden was able to defeat Trump.

Once again, some of these groups have declared their support for the Democrat: whether auto workers in Michigan, casino workers in Nevada or abortion advocates in Wisconsin.

The crucial questions are: How motivated will the activists go into the field?

How well can swing voters and those who are politically disinterested be mobilized this time, after four years of Biden?

And how many so-called “double haters” will vote for the president they dislike just to prevent the even more hated Trump?

Trump has been rumbling against Biden for months - and Biden is now increasingly against Trump.

“Do we continue to make progress,” the president asked on Super Tuesday, “or do we allow Donald Trump to drag us back into the chaos, division and darkness that have defined his time in office?”

The USA is facing a duel of old men - two men who despise each other and make no secret of it.

A text message that Trump sent to his loyal supporters on election night shows how dirty the election campaign will be.

It reads: »VICTORY IS OUR ULTIMATE REVENGE.«