Russian aviation has just experienced an unusual black streak in Ukrainian skies: during the last two weeks of February, kyiv claimed to have shot down 14 aircraft, including several Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-35 fighter-bombers.
If we add the two precious Beriev A-50 detection and command aircraft that fell in combat only a few weeks apart, the bill begins to be steep for Moscow.
These impressive figures put forward by kyiv, however, could not be independently verified.
"When you have this kind of victory, you have every interest in trumpeting it and presenting it in the most spectacular way possible. This is part of war propaganda and the Ukrainians would be wrong to deprive themselves of it since it contributes very strongly in maintaining the morale of the troops and the population", analyzes defense consultant Marc Chassillan.
Despite a possible exaggeration by kyiv, military experts agree on one fact: Russian aircraft sorties have significantly increased in recent weeks.
After suffering heavy losses in the first month of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian air force has long kept its distance from the danger of the Western anti-aircraft defenses deployed by kyiv.
But Russia once again seems willing to make its pilots take increased risks to support infantry on the ground.
“To achieve their victory at Avdiivka, the Russians strengthened the role of the aviation and today they are trying to continue this momentum,” indicates General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN.
"Naturally, the more planes there are in the sky, the more possibilities there are to shoot them down. Furthermore, when pilots do ground support, they are forced to descend in altitude and therefore offer a vulnerability which the Ukrainians probably benefit from.
If this campaign of Russian strikes is costly, it also seems to be paying off on the front for the Russian army.
By approaching its targets as closely as possible, Moscow's air force increases the effectiveness of its powerful gliding bombs which equip its Sukhoi fighters.
These guided munitions capable of traveling long distances to the front lines made it possible to limit the risk of Russian planes being shot down.
Dropped with precision, they can easily destroy the underground bunkers housing Ukrainian soldiers.
"Before the war, the Russian air force was not known for using guided projectiles on such a massive scale as Western air forces. In reality, the Russians had a huge stock of standard bombs called FABs. They grafted small deployable wings and added guidance kits making them much more precise", explains Marc Chassillan.
“These are bombs that weigh between 200 and 500 kilos. Suffice it to say that when they hit the ground, they cause a lot of damage.”
“These bombs completely destroy any position,” confirms Egor Sugar, a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Avdiivka who is active on social networks.
"All buildings and structures turn into craters after just one of them arrives."
Ukraine, however, is not left out in this area, even if its stock of ammunition is much more limited.
In recent days, the Ukrainian Air Force has dropped its first French-made AASM Hammer glide bombs on Russian positions.
In a video published on March 4, kyiv claims to have used this type of bomb to hit a Russian supply depot in Kozachi Laheri, on the left bank of the Dnieper River.
First image of a French-supplied AASM-250 HAMMER extended-range bomb in Ukrainian Air Force service.
pic.twitter.com/O8qnQDNfae
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2024
The trail of a hack
If the increased presence of Russian planes in Ukrainian skies partly explains the high toll of aircraft fallen in combat in recent weeks, Kiev could also have taken the opportunity to "take the risk of deploying Patriot launchers near the front lines in order to “engage Russian hunters,” Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Rusi think tank, suggested to the BBC.
Among the multitude of anti-aircraft defense systems supplied by the West since the start of the Russian invasion, the Patriot is considered one of the most expensive and sophisticated.
Read alsoWar in Ukraine: what the delivery of American Patriot missiles will change
The possibility of a Patriot battery being deployed in the East is, however, unlikely, believes General Trinquand because "the Ukrainians have very few and need them to protect their cities, particularly Kiev. Furthermore, the Ground attack aircraft are more vulnerable to short-range anti-aircraft artillery. I am thinking, for example, of the French SATCP system or the American Stinger.
Finally, another equally unverifiable hypothesis was put forward by an Austrian analyst.
Interviewed by the Ukrainian daily Kyiv Post, Tom Cooper assures that the navigation systems of the Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-35 could have been hacked to become easy prey for the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense.
“When a Russian plane crashes, the Ukrainians rush to recover everything they can, in particular the electronic part, which can give indications on how to deceive the Russian pilots,” explains Marc Chassillan.
"All modern combat aircraft have warning systems that warn them as soon as they are 'illuminated', that is to say spotted by radar. A computer virus or a jamming system could render this system inoperable "The Russian pilots then think they are flying quietly in the sky but are in fact targeted by a missile."
A costly strategy
In any case, Moscow seems determined to capitalize on its victory at Avdivvka, even if it means sacrificing several pilots and Sukhoi fighter bombers whose unit price is around 85 million dollars.
“Russian forces appear to have tolerated an increased rate of air casualties in recent weeks in order to carry out glide bomb strikes in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine,” says The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, in an analysis published March 3.
“After the victory at Avdivvka, the Russians realize that Ukraine has not well prepared its defensive positions behind and therefore they want to seize the opportunity to shake up the armed forces of kyiv,” believes Dominique Trinquand.
“The Russians are looking for the breaking point,” adds Marc Chasillan.
"They don't want to give the Ukrainians time to entrench themselves. And so they continue to harass them, to chase them, so that they cannot build a strong defense line."
Read alsoTwo years after the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian army reviews its strategy
But can Russia afford to pursue such a costly strategy over time?
British military intelligence says Russia still had seven more A-50s, but had "most likely grounded the fleet" to avoid further losses.
According to the Ukrainians, air activity has decreased significantly since last weekend.
Latest Defense Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 02 March 2024.
Find out more about Defense Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/La7njOX8O7#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/kPFLiE5xjf
— Ministry of Defense 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 2, 2024
In theory, the Russian Air Force still has room to spare.
Before the start of the war, it had a fleet of 1,500 military aircraft.
According to analysts, the defense industry should also be able to replenish some of its losses by the end of the year.
Quoted by the Tass news agency, Sergei Chemezov, the boss of Rostec, indicated last week that the defense conglomerate would resume production of the A-50 “because the Russian armed forces need it”.
According to estimates, the Russian military has lost around 150 aircraft or helicopters since February 24, 2022.
In theory, the Russians therefore still have ample means to carry out aggressive air campaigns.
Despite the high number of Russian planes fallen in combat in recent days, this figure is far from reaching the levels observed during previous high-intensity conflicts, recalls Marc Chassillan.
"We have forgotten it but in eight years of war, the Americans lost 5,000 planes and helicopters in Vietnam, or two or three per day. During the Yom Kippur War, in three weeks of combat, there were 500 planes destroyed or shot down, both on the Israeli side and on the Arab side,” explains the military expert.
“But today, when a plane is shot down, it is always a big event in Western armies, quite simply because they have lost the habit of waging war.”
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