China News Service, March 6 (Gantian) On March 5, local time, the 2024 presidential election in the United States ushered in the "Super Tuesday" primary voting day.

Based on calculations and reports from mainstream U.S. media, current President Biden has won the Democratic primaries in at least 14 states so far.

In the Republican primaries, former US President Trump defeated Nikki Haley, the former US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, winning at least 12 states.

　　Public opinion generally believes that Biden and Trump performed strongly on Super Tuesday and are one step closer to becoming the presidential candidates of both parties.

But at the same time, both of them are also facing a lot of troubles and challenges, which may have a significant impact on their support ratings.

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, who will come to the end?

[Why is "Super Tuesday" "super"?

】

　　Every election year, some U.S. states, overseas territories, etc. usually choose to hold primaries simultaneously on a Tuesday in the first half of the election cycle.

The number of "committed representatives" produced by the vote on that day has a large number of seats, a wide geographical coverage, and strong representation of multi-ethnic voters. It has always been regarded as an important "watershed" for candidates, so it is known as "Super Tuesday".

　　During this "Super Tuesday", a total of more than a dozen states and overseas territories in the United States held primaries, involving more than 1,400 Democratic electoral votes and more than 800 Republican electoral votes, including California, which has a large population and great political influence. states and Texas.

　　Based on calculations and reports from mainstream US media, as of now, current President Biden has won the Democratic Party primaries in at least 14 states.

In the Republican Party primaries, former US President Trump defeated Nikki Haley, the former US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, winning at least 12 states.

　　The Associated Press pointed out that Biden and Trump's strong performance on "Super Tuesday" means that they are one step closer to becoming the presidential candidates of their respective parties, and lays the foundation for the final showdown between the two in November 2024.

Data map: US President Biden.

[The "three hurdles" on Biden's re-election campaign]

　　For Biden, although the competition in the party's primary primaries is quite easy, he still faces multiple challenges if he wants to win this general election.

　　First, as the oldest sitting president in U.S. history, Biden's age and health issues have not only been frequently hyped by political opponents, but have also aroused concern among many voters.

　　The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consulting poll shows Biden trailing Trump in seven battleground states including Nevada, with most respondents expressing concerns about Biden's age.

The Harvard/Harris poll also showed that Trump would lead Biden by 6 percentage points in a hypothetical presidential election matchup.

　　Faced with various concerns, the White House released the results of Biden's annual physical examination on February 28, stating that Biden is a "healthy, energetic, and strong" 81-year-old man who is still "fit to perform the duties of the President."

Biden also joked to reporters that day, "(Doctors) think I look too young."

　　Another challenge is how the Biden administration handles the Palestinian-Israeli issue, which may affect the support of Democratic voters.

　　U.S. media statistics show that although Biden won the Democratic primary in the key "swing state" of Michigan with an overwhelming advantage, more than 100,000 "not expressing" votes were cast, accounting for about 13% of the total votes.

Marian, a Democrat, said she chose to "not take a position" to send a signal to the entire United States: "If Biden continues to support Israel's military operations in Gaza, he will not have our support."

　　CNN believes that the proportion of voters who choose "not to express their opinion" reaches double digits, which may become an "early warning" for Biden's re-election campaign.

If voters who support the Democratic Party do not vote in the November 2024 election, Biden may not be able to win Michigan. This also indicates that Biden will face a sharp increase in pressure to win in other swing states.

　　Third, Biden’s performance on immigration issues has also cast a shadow on his re-election campaign.

　　As concerns about immigration grow among Americans, the Biden administration has been revealed to be considering executive action to limit the ability of immigrants who cross the border illegally to seek asylum.

He himself has rarely visited the US-Mexico border in recent days, "fighting" with Trump from afar, trying to reverse the defensive situation.

　　Analysts say Biden's plan may face opposition from progressives, the same groups that support Biden's successful election in 2020.

DeScipio, a political science professor at the University of California, Irvine, also described Biden as "walking a tightrope on immigration."

Data map: Former US President Trump.

[The "Sword of Damocles" hanging over Trump's head]

　　But on the other hand, Trump’s life is not easy either.

　　Associated Press survey analysis shows that most of Trump’s current support still comes from white voters.

But in the November 2024 general election, he must attract a more diverse group, such as supporters of former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Haley, independent voters, college-educated voters or voters who are worried about the multiple cases he faces.

　　For the lawsuit-ridden Trump, who has been involved in four criminal cases and was fined a total of hundreds of millions of dollars in two civil cases, will he still have enough funds to support his campaign?

Can he still win the support of more voters?

　　Talking about Trump's latest legal blow - being sentenced to pay a huge fine of US$450 million in a civil financial fraud case, the Guardian described it this way, "One step closer to the Republican presidential nomination, but facing business The danger of wealth falling from your hands.”

　　Many US media also analyzed that this verdict may wipe out the cash, stocks and bonds accumulated by Trump after leaving the White House.

Moreover, if the verdict is upheld after the appeals process, Trump's finances will be in a "dangerous situation."

　　Another criminal case that has caused headaches for Trump is that he is accused of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments in April 2024 on Trump's argument that he enjoys presidential immunity and is therefore immune from criminal charges.

　　At that time, the U.S. Supreme Court will also consider another case involving the "Capitol Hill Riots."

The defendants in this case were also charged for allegedly interfering with Congress's certification of the presidential election results.

Reuters stated that the Federal Supreme Court’s decision on this case may have a potential impact on Trump.

　　Faced with the ensuing troubles, Trump still seems "confident" about the future.

After winning multiple state primaries one after another, he once told his supporters that he was sitting on "the rocket (to obtain) the Republican presidential nomination." "We will let Biden and the left-wing Democrats see that we will Like a freight train, heading towards November."

　　Regarding the possible reappearance of the electoral showdown, who will make it to the end, Biden or Trump?

Next, is it possible that a "black swan" will fly out and disrupt the general election?

The situation remains to be seen.

(over)