Navalny suddenly died in a prison in the Arctic Circle last month.
Even after the funeral of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the biggest political rival, a continuous line of people continued to place flowers at the cemetery in Moscow.
We asked expert commentator Kazuhiro Ishikawa, who has covered Russia for many years, about the repercussions of Navalny's sudden death and President Putin's intentions ahead of the presidential election on the 17th of this month.
*This is the content that was broadcast on "Catch! World's Top News" on March 6th.
*The video is 9 minutes 23 seconds long and cannot be viewed on data broadcasting.
Is Putin's government behind Navalny's sudden death?
(Mochizuki Caster)
Is the Putin government behind Mr. Navalny's sudden death?
(Ishikawa expert commentator)
It is not possible to make a prejudgment about the cause of death.
The Russian government calls it a sudden death.
However, it has become clear that two movements took place just before Navalny's sudden death.
One is that negotiations between Russia and Germany to replace Mr. Navalny with an assassin believed to be a member of Russia's security services were in the final stages.
The assassin is serving a life sentence for killing a Chechen independence commander in the German capital Berlin in 2019.
Mr. Navalny's side has accused President Putin of ordering the killing, as he did not want the exchange.
But President Putin last month even implicitly praised the assassin as a patriot.
The exchange can also be said to be a profitable transaction for Mr. Putin himself.
What we need to consider is that the Putin regime is not a monolithic organization, but rather a coalition of forces with various agendas.
It would not be surprising if there were forces that wanted to prevent exchange negotiations.
The other thing is that strange information is flowing from Ukraine.
``Unfortunately, the cause of Mr. Navalny's death was a natural death due to a blood clot,'' Director General of Military Intelligence Budanov said.
In addition, the leader of the Russian volunteer forces fighting on the Ukrainian side revealed that he was planning to recapture Mr. Navalny.
Mr. Navalny has the side of being a Russian nationalist, and the Russian Volunteer Army is a nationalist group even though it is anti-Putin, so we have something in common.
The volunteer forces have also revealed internal documents from Russia's security agencies and a floor plan of the prison where Mr. Navalny was imprisoned.
It cannot be said that the recapture plan is a hoax.
Combined with the statements made by Director of Intelligence Budanov, this hints that there are sympathizers within Russia's security services, and they may be trying to show off their intelligence capabilities to the West and disrupt Russia.
Funeral during presidential election campaign
(Mochizuki Caster)
Mr. Navalny's funeral was held last week during the presidential election campaign in which President Putin is aiming for an overwhelming victory.
How do you see that situation?
(Ishikawa expert commentator)
Mr. Navalny's funeral was held under tight security, including armed police.
Thousands of supporters and citizens formed a line more than two kilometers long to bid farewell to Navalny.
Normally, a long time is allowed for each person to pay their condolences in front of the coffin, but only the family and a few related people are allowed inside the church where the funeral was held, and the general public is not allowed to pay their condolences. I didn't allow it.
I think it was clear that the Putin administration wanted to complete the funeral as quickly and as discreetly as possible.
However, despite the authorities' desire to calm down the situation, many citizens continue to visit the grave every day, even though it has already been five days since the funeral.
However, in Russia, there is a tradition in which victims of the regime receive widespread sympathy as martyrs, and Mr. Navalny, who died suddenly, became a symbol of resistance as a martyr, and his will and appeal will continue to be influential.
Navalny's successor
(Mochizuki Caster)
Is there a successor to Mr. Navalny?
(Ishikawa expert commentator)
His wife, Yulia, has expressed her intention to carry on her husband's will.
However, the loss of a charismatic leader like Navalny is a major blow to anti-Putin forces.
The anti-Putin challenge will be how to win over conservatives as well as liberals.
All eyes are on voting day for the presidential election.
There are four candidates running for president in this presidential election, including President Putin, and all of them support military invasion, making it a completely partisan election.
Liberal anti-war candidates that Mr. Navalny called for support were refused registration.
However, even during his lifetime, Navalny called on people to go to the polls at a certain time and vote for a candidate other than Putin, citing the need to use the election to demonstrate his anti-Putin and anti-war stance.
I would like to pay attention to how the 20% of anti-Putin and anti-war voters will behave on the voting days from the 15th to the 17th.
What is Putin's regime like?
(Mochizuki Caster)
How is Putin's regime moving?
(Expert commentator Ishikawa)
In this presidential election, President Putin is aiming for an overwhelming victory with a voter turnout of 70% and a vote share of 80%, numbers that have never been achieved before.
In his annual State of the Union address last week, he emphasized that the current military invasion is a decisive moment to protect Russia's sovereignty and security, stating:
(President Putin)
``The decisive role is played by our people, our national unity, our loyalty to our homeland and our sense of responsibility for its destiny.''
With an overwhelming victory, Russia wants to demonstrate public confidence in the special military operation, and by carrying out unilaterally annexed Crimea and four eastern provinces, Russia wants to demonstrate to Ukraine and the international community that it has effective control. There is a purpose.
One way to do this is to strengthen the tightening.
Orlov, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning head of the human rights group Memorial, has been sentenced to two and a half years in prison for insulting his military.
Never before has a representative of the internationally prestigious Memorial been imprisoned, meaning there is no longer a guardian for the human rights of ordinary people.
Perhaps the regime is trying to spread fear and self-control in society by showing that even Memorial representatives will be punished.
Why is support still strong?
(Caster Mochizuki)
Even with such restrictions, an 80% vote rate is incomprehensible to us.
Why does President Putin still have such strong support?
(Ishikawa, expert commentator)
The annual State of the Union address was notable for its strong anti-Western stance, but in fact, 80% of the more than two-hour speech was devoted to domestic economic issues, infrastructure development, education and medical allowances, and the nation's people. The funds were used to promise improved welfare benefits.
Approximately 20% to 30% of the Russian people who support Mr. Putin are rock-solid supporters, who sincerely believe in Mr. Putin and enthusiastically support military invasion.
The remaining 40% to 50% are passive supporters who fear change, and believe that stability under Mr. Putin, albeit an authoritarian one, is preferable to the chaos that would occur without Mr. Putin.
I visited Russia in March last year and January this year, and the economy is stable despite the war.
Such economic conditions have also strengthened the desire of the people, who have been passive supporters of the president, to believe in the president's words and promises.
I'm paying attention to when the passive supporters of Putin and the moderate conservatives will no longer be able to bear the burden of war and will start demanding change.