Will Abiy Ahmed’s meetings limit the escalation of confrontations and violence in Ethiopia?

Addis Ababa faces international pressure to put an end to the protracted conflicts in some parts of the country (Anatolia)

Addis Ababa -

Since the beginning of last February, the Ethiopian government has been holding meetings with rulers and community leaders in the country’s regions, about the security and political reality, as well as discussions about the upcoming national dialogue, amid escalating confrontations in the north and increasing acts of violence in the west.

The meetings come at a time when the country is besieged by security crises and political challenges, as a result of the escalation of confrontations between the government and the armed Fano militias in the Amhara region for months, and the increase in violence due to the armed movements of Aung Sheni in the Oromia region for years, which Addis Ababa classifies as terrorist.

In his most recent speech before Parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said that the failure to express political interests through peaceful means is a challenge to peace efforts, stressing that his government gives priority to negotiations and dialogue, its commitment to continuing negotiations with armed groups and its readiness to deal with all parties ready to lay down their arms. And political participation.

Agenda of meetings

Abiy Ahmed met with governors and community leaders in the regions of Tigray, Oromia and Amhara, before discussing a similar step, on Wednesday, with representatives of the regions of Somalia, Afar, Harar, Gambella and Benishangul.

The discussions focus on issues of development, peace and security, creating conditions for the upcoming dialogue, and how to find solutions to the current challenges in each region.

Sudanese researcher in African affairs, Abbas Muhammad Salih, considered the government’s involvement in a series of meetings an attempt to mobilize local support for the success of the national dialogue.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Saleh said, "It seems that the government's strategy to impose certain solutions by betting on force has largely failed, and therefore the search for a political settlement through dialogue has become more important at this stage."

The idea of ​​the Ethiopian National Dialogue was established two years ago, with the aim of addressing the “deep and unresolved” differences in opinions and basic national issues between the various components of society at the political and popular levels.

A specialized independent committee was formed that included 11 national figures, with the approval and approval of the Ethiopian Parliament, which is supervising the upcoming dialogue. The idea goes back to old demands from opposition movements, immediately after Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, for the necessity of holding a comprehensive dialogue.

The head of the committee, Mesfin Arya, said that the date for holding consultations across the country will take place this year, confirming the participation of about 700,000 Ethiopians in the national dialogue, who were identified by representatives of the Council of Civil Societies, the Council of Political Parties, the Teachers Union, and the Coalition of National Societies. The Council of Religions, and district court judges and representatives.

Ethiopian journalist Zahid Zidan expressed his optimism about the government’s efforts, and told Al Jazeera Net that Ethiopia’s challenges today lie in the security and political axes as a result of the conflicts, explaining that the dialogues that took place with community leaders and clerics have a strong influence on society confirm that the ruling party was able to form a popular base around the project. The national dialogue is what gives hope for its success.

He added, "The meetings initiated by the federal government with governors and community leaders in all regions are an important step and enhance the achievement of the goals of the dialogue."

Abiy Ahmed and government officials during previous talks with the Tigray Liberation Front delegation regarding progress in the peace process (communication sites)

Challenges

The security scene in Ethiopia continues to be characterized by more turmoil and complexity as a result of the state of security chaos, in light of the continuation of armed clashes, which increases the importance of national dialogue and political negotiation to end conflicts, according to analysts and academics.

Ethiopian writer and political analyst Abdel Shakur Abdel Samad considered the current crises in Ethiopia among the crises the region is witnessing, and said that the Horn of Africa region suffers from political failure, the absence of a common vision, and accumulated internal crises for each country.

He added to Al Jazeera Net that the national forces today suffer from the absence of a political vision to serve the national interest, and thus foreign hands benefit from the absence of effective national forces.

While Saleh warned that the escalation of the conflict in Ethiopia entails great risks to the security and stability of the country and its image abroad as a country plagued by unrest.

He added that the pattern of conflict taking place in the Amhara region, its repercussions are not limited to the borders of the region in light of the demographic overlap of the people of the Amhara region with a number of regions, in addition to the regional interactions and fears of its access to the border areas with Sudan.

Saleh pointed to the pressure exerted by international partners on Addis Ababa to put an end to the protracted conflicts in some parts of the country, especially after it obtained membership in the BRICS organization, and therefore its need more than ever to reflect a different image of lasting stability and peace.

The US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Fee, revealed that in her discussion with Ethiopian officials, she raised the ongoing armed conflicts in the Oromia and Amhara regions.

In early February, about 50 civilians were killed in the town of Merawi in the Amhara region of northern Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (an independent body) condemned the incident and said that it had begun investigating the civilian victims following the fighting, and was able to confirm the identities of at least 45. Civilians executed by government security forces.

The United States expressed its deep concern about reports of “targeted killings of civilians” in northern Ethiopia, and urged the authorities to allow human rights monitors to enter the region.

Dialogue and opportunities for solution

Ethiopia is counting on comprehensive dialogue to resolve disputes and conflicts within the overall issues that will be discussed, and Saleh considered it a rare opportunity to solve the country’s inherited problems, but its success requires achieving national consensus and consensus, adding, “It seems out of reach now in light of the complexities of the political situation in the country.”

While Zidane linked the success of the dialogue to the armed groups’ response to the call made by the Prime Minister to negotiate and resolve differences away from the gun, saying, “If the armed groups respond to Abiy Ahmed’s call, this will help bring peace and make the dialogue a success.”

As for Abdel Samad, he ruled out that the national dialogue would make any progress in light of the conflicts, saying, “Achieving a national consensus through dialogue as hoped seems distant in light of the hostilities and guerrilla warfare practiced by the militias.”

Source: Al Jazeera