The conflict between NATO's east and west...Who will succeed Stoltenberg?

Rutte (right with Stoltenberg during a NATO summit last July (French)

The German magazine "Der Spiegel" discussed the future of the General Secretariat of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with the approaching end of the term of its Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, and the most likely candidates to succeed him, led by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

In an article, the magazine considered Rutte to be the most likely candidate to take over the NATO secretariat, a position that the US administration had offered him twice before and which he had rejected.

But when Rutte retired from political life in July 2023, the path to Brussels became clear to him, but he quickly discovered that he had opponents and obstacles on his way to the position of the NATO Secretariat.

Last week, the four major NATO countries (the United States, France, Britain and Germany) threw their support behind Rutte in a coordinated effort, and a US administration spokesman said that US President Joe Biden “strongly supports” the Dutchman’s candidacy.

The British government also praised Rutte, describing him as a "trusted defense and security expert."

German government spokesman Steffen Hebstreit said Rutte was a "top candidate" by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Attack from the east?

Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin hope that the selection process will be completed by the end of this month, and that this file will not, under any circumstances, be part of the bargaining within the corridors of the European Union after the European parliamentary elections next June, or cast a shadow over the anniversary summit. The 75th anniversary of the founding of the alliance in Washington next July.

With the support of the Big Four, Rutte's election already seemed like a done deal.

But shortly after his unofficial nomination, the Romanian government announced its intention to nominate its president, Klaus Iohannis, as a candidate for the position of the General Secretariat of the Alliance.

It was not just the timing that was causing concern for Rutte's candidates, as neither Iohannis himself nor other Romanian representatives have confirmed the official candidacy, much less explained why Iohannis is the best candidate for the position of NATO head.

The Romanian presidential office did not comment on the reason for the candidacy.

Klaus Iohannis (center) during a NATO summit last summer (Getty)

Is it a deliberate attempt to obstruct?

Observers in Brussels wonder about the reason for the Romanian nomination: Is it a deliberate attempt to obstruct Rutte’s candidacy?

Or a tactical maneuver to impose concessions on other issues and secure a senior position in the European Union for Romania after the upcoming European elections?

Iohannis himself fueled the latter theory with an appearance before the European Parliament last February, where he told reporters that it would be "unacceptable" for Eastern Europeans not to have any important position in the European Union after the upcoming European elections.

According to a number of diplomats, Rutte now has the support of about two-thirds of NATO's 31 members. New member Sweden is also likely to belong to Rutte's camp, but the eastern members are opposed.

The Secretary General is traditionally elected unanimously, and there is no formal process defined by the alliance's regulations, which gives troublemakers the opportunity to stir up trouble, according to Der Spiegel.

Should Rutte fear Orban's retaliation?

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban may be one of those obstacles on Rutte's path to the NATO secretariat position, as is often the case, and Rutte is no exception to Orban's repeated opposition.

The Dutch Prime Minister said in June 2021 that after the Hungarian government passed a law directed against homosexuals, “Hungary no longer has any place in the European Union. We want Hungary to submit.”

Now Rutte must fear Orban's retaliation.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban may be one of those obstacles on Rutte's path to the NATO Secretariat position (Getty)

This time, Orban will not feel isolated, as other countries in the alliance from the east of the Old Continent feel that the West has deceived them. These countries have warned for many years of the danger posed by Russia, warnings that were ridiculed by their Western allies, which is a good reason behind the desire of the countries of the East to... The continent is seeking to fill the top position in NATO with one of its men.

For example, Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas expressed his interest in Stoltenberg's position, and his country wants to include Ukraine in the European Union and NATO, and Estonia is considered a staunch critic of the Russian regime.

But this in no way increased Estonia's chances of obtaining the highest position in NATO, on the contrary.

Many in Brussels fear that with Callas at the helm, the confrontation with Russia will intensify and perhaps escalate.

Any chances for Callas?

Things looked good at first for Kalas.

In the Ukraine war, the head of the government of Estonia, with a population of 1.3 million, gained unexpected influence.

He came up with the idea that the European Union could jointly buy ammunition for Ukraine, just as it bought vaccines during the Corona pandemic.

Last March, the European Union decided to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine within a year, based on the Estonian proposal.

It was not entirely clear how to secure this quantity of ammunition, and for fear that the European Union would embarrass itself, European Union Foreign Policy Coordinator Josep Borrell recently stated that only half of the quantity would be delivered by the end of this month, with the remaining quantity being delivered by the end of this year.

Kalas still has many supporters in NATO's eastern countries, and Estonian Defense Minister Hannu Pefkur told Der Spiegel that in addition to Estonia, "many other countries will support the 46-year-old's candidacy. They don't want to split NATO, but Kalas will be a leader." "Very strong."

Biden, Trump and Russia..

The country of origin and gender of the candidate play a secondary role at best, says a senior NATO diplomat. “What is important is to find someone who can deal with both Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and the Russian threat,” and there is widespread agreement that Rutte is capable of doing this, and is considered More cautious in his rhetoric towards Russia than the Baltic states.

It appears that the caretaker prime minister in the Netherlands is preparing to hold another meeting with Trump, and he said last January at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Trump "forced the Europeans to increase their defense spending."

When asked in a press conference about his relationship with Trump, he said, “Friendly relations are important. We have to dance with everyone on the dance floor.”

Rutte, who was Trump's guest at the White House on July 2, 2018, interrupted the US president - unlike any White House visitor in front of the camera - and not only did he oppose Trump, but he seemed to not care about any reaction.

The Dutch Prime Minister was sitting in the Oval Office next to Trump, who was talking about the economic power of the United States and the trade dispute with the European Union, saying, “If we find a solution, that will be positive, and if not, that will be positive as well.” Then Rutte raised his eyebrows, smiling. “No,” he said, Trump continued speaking, but Rutte interrupted him again with a smile, “It will not be positive. We have to find a solution.”

Source: Der Spiegel