The American presence in Somalia: one eye is on fighting terrorism and the other is on Bab al-Mandab

Biden decided to send hundreds of American fighters to Somalia (Associated Press)

In the culmination of military cooperation between the two countries, Somalia and the United States signed a military agreement in mid-February, according to which Washington would strengthen the capabilities of the Somali army in confronting the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement.

This step is an extension of the American military involvement in the Somali arena, which has witnessed continuous growth since May 2022, when President Joe Biden decided to send hundreds of American soldiers to Somalia in a remarkable retreat from the policy of withdrawal from “eternal wars” launched by his predecessor, Donald Trump.

Biden's decision reflected the geostrategic and security importance of Somalia, overlooking the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea, as it represents a key gateway to the east and depth of the African continent, and a focal point in the Horn of Africa, which constitutes one of the arenas of the current Cold War between Washington and its competitors.

The recent developments in the southern Red Sea highlight the behind-the-scenes military agreement concluded by Washington with Mogadishu, as many analyzes link the attacks carried out by the Houthis on Western interests near Bab al-Mandab and the US administration’s desire to support its military and intelligence presence in Somalia, which is close to this theater of operations.

President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud enjoys American support in confronting Al-Shabaab (Al-Jazeera)

new beginning

A paper issued by the King Faisal Center for Research and Studies argues that Biden’s decision to return his soldiers to Somalia embodied his desire to strengthen Washington’s presence in that country, after relations between the two parties witnessed great tension during the era of former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo (2017-2022).

In this context, it was noteworthy the timing of the announcement of the decision, which came one day after the election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as President of Somalia on May 15, 2022, which was considered at the time as a direct message of support for Sheikh Mohamud, who placed confronting security challenges at the top of his agenda, with the increasing activity of the Al-Shabaab movement following the withdrawal of... Trump sent his country's forces out of Somalia in December 2020.

In addition to this, the American move indicates a proactive attempt by Washington to reduce the expected security repercussions of the withdrawal of African forces from Somalia by the end of 2024, which constitute a vital support for the Somali army in its battle with Al-Shabaab, which will place the responsibility of assuming security duties in the country on the shoulders of the Somali forces.

Protecting regional allies

Recent years have witnessed a continuous increase in the strength of the Al-Shabaab movement in Somalia, which forced Stephen Townsend, the former commander of US forces in Africa (AFRICOM), to describe it in early 2022 as “capable of adapting, flexible, and having the ability to attack the interests of the West and its partners in Somalia and East Africa.” ".

In the face of this development, Washington aims, by activating its military and security presence in Somalia, to undermine the movement and besiege it, and to protect the United States’ regional allies from its targeting.

The "Global Terrorist Threat" assessment for 2024 - issued by the Center for Strategic Studies in Washington - listed Al-Shabaab among the most important security threats in East Africa, as the movement carried out bloody attacks on military and civilian targets in Uganda and Kenya.

This also included its attack on Kenyan and American forces at a base in Manda Bay in Kenya in 2020, and it also threatened to target Djibouti, which hosts the largest American military base in Africa.

A turbulent regional context

On the other hand, Washington seems concerned with preventing the expansion of Al-Shabaab’s activities into the volatile neighborhood of Ethiopia and Sudan.

In these two countries, the security fluidity resulting from the war in Sudan and the internal conflicts in Ethiopia provides the opportunity for the movement to penetrate within them and open new fronts for its terrorist activities, as these fragile environments represent an ideal environment for the activities of armed organizations.

The Ethiopian security authorities have repeatedly thwarted Al-Shabaab attacks, one of which targeted the capital, Addis Ababa, in the summer of 2022, while the movement’s penetration into Sudan means creating a belt of security chaos extending from the west of the continent in the Sahel region to its east.

Al-Shabaab poses a continuing threat in Somalia, according to US (French) estimates.

American counterattack

A paper issued by the Brookings Center describes the African continent as one of the regions witnessing the “dawn of the Second Cold War,” as the Horn of Africa has transformed over the last decade into an arena for a sharp test of power between the United States and its international competitors, led by China and Russia.

In this context, an article - co-written by Assistant Professor at the University of California, Samar Al-Balushi - argues that the US government’s plan to train Somali security forces represents an indirect strategy, not only to expand the US military presence in Somalia, but also to confront more decisively with other competing forces in Somalia. Region.

In this approach, Al-Balushi relies on the fact that Section 1202 of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2018 expands the United States’ ability to wage war through alternative forces in places where war has not been officially declared, with the aim of countering the influence of adversaries such as China and Russia.

In this regard, a paper issued by Brown University indicates that the total amount Washington spent on fighting terrorism in Somalia between 2007 and 2020 exceeded $2.5 billion, distributed across various fields such as training, arming, logistical and intelligence support.

Since May 2022, 450 American soldiers have been advising the Somali army and engaging in various training programs that also include African forces operating in the country.

According to the recent US-Somalia understanding, the Pentagon will build five military bases to train Danab forces in the south of the country, where Al-Shabaab is active, which will contribute to increasing field intelligence capabilities through direct contact with the clans residing in the region.

Air strikes

Air strikes are one of the main pillars of US operations targeting Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Washington admitted to carrying out 19 air strikes during the year 2023, a remarkable decrease from the peak it reached in 2019, with a total of 63 air strikes.

The American marches start from military bases in the region, especially the Lemonnier base in Djibouti, and target Al-Shabaab leaders, respond to the movement’s attacks, in addition to providing air cover for the offensive operations of the Somali forces.

Danab Brigade

Danab (meaning lightning in the Somali language) represents one of the most important American investments in the military security sector in Somalia. It is a brigade of rapid intervention forces that was established in 2014. It has a strength of approximately 1,500 soldiers, and the Pentagon aims to increase it to 3,000. It represents the spearhead in the battle with Al-Shabaab. .

Washington supervises Danab, as the American private security company Bancroft provides basic training to its soldiers, while the American Special Forces provides advanced training.

This unit is described as professional and far removed from the clan political maneuvers in Somalia, as a result of the close control of the United States over it. It not only trains it, but also provides it with logistical and armed support and fixed salaries, in addition to air coverage for its attacks.

Feasibility question

US military involvement in Somalia has provided vital support to a country suffering from the consequences of state collapse since the 1990s, providing, for example, air cover that Somali forces lack.

However, many criticisms have been directed at the military approach followed by US policy in Somalia, as its reliance on air strikes, despite their importance, reveals the limited ability to control the land without the availability of accompanying ground forces, and the risk of these strikes harming citizens and their property threatens to undermine popular support. Washington's efforts.

These and other challenges prompted Daniel Larrison, senior editor at the American Conservative magazine, to question the feasibility of the strategy followed by the United States, given the continued growth of terrorist threats in Somalia despite the billions of dollars that Washington has spent over nearly two decades.

In addition to the above, the uncertainty related to the results of the upcoming US elections casts a heavy shadow over the future of US military activity in Somalia, as the possibility of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House indicates the possibility of him withdrawing his country’s forces as he did previously.

Therefore, a paper published by the prestigious International Crisis Group proposes a number of steps to make US actions more effective and sustainable.

The proposed measures mainly relate to supporting non-military efforts to achieve stability in Somalia, by strengthening efforts to achieve reconciliation at all levels of the Somali state and society, supporting local peace dialogues, and expanding projects that the community desperately needs, such as repairing wells and facilitating the provision of services.

Source: Al Jazeera