On Friday, March 1, Polish farmers began to restrict the movement of vehicles on the border with Lithuania.
As stated by the coordinator of the action, Karol Pieszynski, the demonstration of farmers became even more justified after the unsuccessful negotiations that took place the day before with the head of the Polish Cabinet of Ministers, Donald Tusk.
“During the meeting with the Prime Minister, no concrete steps were taken, so the protest on the Polish-Lithuanian border is even more justified,” Piezynski said in a comment to the Lithuanian portal LRT.
Polish farmers announced their intention to block the Budzisko checkpoint on the border with Lithuania for a week in early March on February 23.
Their goal is to stop the so-called grain carousel, in which Ukrainian grain is sent in transit through Poland to Lithuania, and then returns from there to Polish territory under the guise of a European product.
In this way, Ukrainians manage to bypass the embargo that Warsaw imposed on Ukrainian agricultural goods in 2023.
As Pezhinsky noted earlier in a conversation with LRT, there will not be a “complete blockade” at the border, but farmers intend to check all cargo trucks.
“We, as farmers, together with the authorities on the Polish side, would like to check what is transported in trucks, especially paying attention to those vehicles that can be used to transport agricultural products.
Of course, this does not apply to personal vehicles,” the protest organizer emphasized.
According to him, farmers want to know “the source and scale of grain transportation to Poland.”
He added that grain from Belarus and Russia could also enter the country through the Baltic states.
Meanwhile, in Lithuania they look at the protest of Polish farmers differently.
According to the country's Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, the rhetoric of Polish farmers about the grain carousel is reminiscent of the Kremlin's attempts to quarrel between Ukraine's two allies.
In her opinion, the protest is more likely related to the political cycle and the upcoming elections to local government and the European Parliament.
In turn, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that the demonstrations are like “some kind of hybrid operation.”
In response, Polish Ambassador to Lithuania Konstantin Radziwill called such accusations unfair and recalled that similar actions by farmers are being carried out in many EU countries.
According to him, the indignation of agricultural producers is justified.
As Vladimir Olenchenko, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at IMEMO RAS, noted, there is nothing new in Shimonite’s statements about the “hand of the Kremlin.”
“Every other day, Shimonite gives interviews to American and British newspapers about “bad Russia.”
For her, this is the main topic,” said RT’s interlocutor.
“They took it right from the army”
It is worth noting that farmer protests have continued in Poland with varying activity since last year.
At first, the country's Cabinet managed to stem the wave of discontent with the help of an embargo on a number of Ukrainian goods.
However, when it became clear that Ukrainian products were still leaking into Poland, the demonstrations resumed.
Protesters are actively blocking border crossings with Ukraine, preventing the movement of trucks.
At the same time, Polish farmers emphasize that they are not against Ukraine, and recall that previously they were among the first to come to the aid of Kyiv.
However, as gratitude, Poland is now faced with the capture of the country’s food market by Ukrainian producers, farmers say.
“We opened a corridor of solidarity - and all markets were captured by Ukraine.
We have nowhere else to sell grain,” Roman Kondruv, leader of the “Deceived Village” organization, told RMF FM.
In addition to the influx of foreign goods, farmers are also unhappy with the EU's Green Deal, which envisages achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050.
This policy of Brussels reduces the competitiveness of European agricultural producers and causes protests in many EU countries, analysts recall.
Donald Tusk
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© Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto
In turn, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk did not rule out that under the current conditions, Warsaw may come to a decision to temporarily close the border with Ukraine.
According to him, the Polish authorities will resort to such a measure if the European Union and Kyiv refuse to limit the duty-free import of Ukrainian agricultural products into the EU.
At the same time, he admitted that this measure would be very painful not only for Ukraine, but also for Poland - in connection with a possible response from Kyiv.
The politician also said that the Polish government is considering the possibility of co-financing the shipment of surplus Ukrainian grain to countries in need and introducing an embargo on agricultural products from Russia and Belarus.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is already counting the losses from the blockade organized by Polish farmers.
According to Verkhovna Rada deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak, the loss of the state budget due to the blocking of checkpoints on the border with Poland in February amounted to about 8 billion hryvnia (more than $210 million).
“We are now financing the entire army through taxes and customs duties... We cannot cover this money even through international assistance, through some other loans.
This was not just taken from the state budget, it was taken directly from the army,” the parliamentarian said.
"Pure political calculation"
According to analysts, the Poles are unhappy with the influx of Ukrainian grain, since their own products are more expensive and cannot withstand competition.
“Polish grain costs significantly more because the soil there is worse, and the labor of local farmers is paid higher than the work of Ukrainian producers.
Since Poland does not allow Ukrainian grain to pass through, Ukraine is coming up with workarounds,” said the chief researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences in a commentary to RT
Nikolai Mezhevich.
In turn, Vladimir Olenchenko drew attention to the fact that American companies have been producing agricultural products in Ukraine for a long time.
“Most Ukrainian manufacturers belong to American companies.
Since Lithuania is not independent and always strives to emphasize its pro-American orientation, an attempt was made to circumvent the Polish embargo through this country,” he said.
— Moreover, this does not benefit either Lithuania, or Lithuanian producers, or the Lithuanian population and economy.
There is zero benefit for them.”
Protest of Polish farmers
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© Attila Husejnow/SOPA Images/LightRocket
Experts also state that the farmers’ actions are forcing the new government of Tusk to act in many ways towards Ukraine in the same way as the previous cabinet of Mateusz Morawiecki did.
“Donald Tusk sees how protests are growing in Poland.
If he does not react, this will lead to a clash with his own population.
And in Poland the agricultural movement and conservative views are very strong.
Such a clash will lead to the resignation of the Cabinet and, possibly, new elections.
So this is a pure political calculation: Tusk is playing along with his population, saying that he will close the border,” explained Vladimir Olenchenko.
According to analysts, the grain issue has caused discord in relations between Warsaw, Vilnius and Kiev.
“Lithuania supported Ukraine, but not Poland.
From the point of view of Vilnius, it is necessary to help Ukraine at any cost - even to the point of ruining its voters.
However, the Poles think differently,” said Nikolai Mezhevich.
Vladimir Olenchenko believes that the grain crisis cannot be resolved quickly, because it is based on the competition between Warsaw and Kyiv in the agricultural goods market.
“Polish farmers now need to decide how much to sow, what volumes.
As a result of the influx of foreign grain, they may begin to go bankrupt and reduce the area for crops.
Therefore, this conflict will last as long as there is competition between Poles and Ukrainians,” he concluded.