This is Transnistria – and this is what the conflict is about

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Troops of the de facto regime at a military parade

Photo:

Artem Kulekin / SNA / IMAGO

The Kremlin has been putting pressure on little Moldova for years.

Most recently, the separatists loyal to Moscow in breakaway Transnistria unexpectedly called a special congress; there were fears that the conflict could worsen.

Would the territory seek to join Russia?

The conflict between Moldova, Russia and the region is already old and dates back to the Soviet era.

Where is Transnistria and who lives there?

The region is located in the east of the Republic of Moldova and is a strip around 200 kilometers long and in some places only a few kilometers wide that borders Ukraine - and only Ukraine.

Transnistria – like the rest of Moldova – does not have access to the sea.

The population has been falling for years, most recently it was reported at around 375,000.

Under international law, the region belongs to Moldova, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Transnistria split off from the newly independent republic.

During the Soviet era, Russian culture and language became more and more influential, especially in this part of Moldova - and it is still the same today: the majority of the population speaks Russian, while Romanian dominates in the rest of Moldova.

Soviet symbols are also omnipresent.

The flag features a hammer and sickle, there is a huge statue of Lenin in the de facto capital of Tiraspol, and a bust of the Soviet leader is in front of the town hall.

It is also called the House of Soviets.

Transnistria uses its own currency - the Transnistrian ruble - and has its own security forces and passports.

Moscow supports Transnistria's economy by supplying gas for free.

Transnistria has long been considered a smugglers' paradise.

Cigarettes, alcohol and other goods arrive there from the port in nearby Odessa across the Ukrainian border.

How did the split come about?

In 1991, Moldova broke away from the crumbling Soviet Union - and shortly afterwards Transnistria broke away from Moldova.

In 1992, the separatists fought a war with the western-oriented government of Moldova with the support of the Russian army.

Hundreds of people were killed and the Russian army intervened on the side of Transnistria.

Moldova's troops then had to quickly retreat.

Since then the conflict has been considered frozen.

To date, the country has stationed 1,500 of its own soldiers in Transnistria as so-called peacekeepers.

In 2006, the last special congress of separatists until this week decided to call a referendum on joining Russia.

97.1 percent of voters voted for unification in the internationally unrecognized vote.

An outcome that could have destabilized Moldova in its attempt to become part of the EU.

In June 2022, Moldova received the status of an EU candidate country.

What is the situation today?

According to observers, Transnistria is now being used by Russia to inflame tensions and assert Russian influence in the region.

Two months after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian General Rustam Minnekayev declared the conquest of southern Ukraine the war goal and also spoke about Transnistria, "where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population."

Minnekayev used the same lies as Putin that the Russian army supposedly had to come to the aid of suffering Russian-speaking people.

Since the beginning of the war there have also been repeated incidents and signs of growing tensions.

Shortly after Minnekayev's statements, several explosions with unknown causes rocked the area, with the de facto regime blaming Ukraine.

In March 2023, the separatist leadership declared that Ukraine had carried out a failed assassination attempt against their leader.

In September 2023, rocket remains were found in the region.

Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry finally said that Ukraine was planning a military attack on Transnistria, but provided no evidence of this.

What are the recent developments?

The news that the Transnistrian regime had called a special congress for this week recently made people sit up and take notice.

The renowned Institute for the Study of War, for example, suggested that the region could prepare a referendum on the annexation of Transnistria to Russia.

This was very reminiscent of the annexation of the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine, which violated international law and which Russia implemented with sham referendums based on the alleged wishes of the population.

In fact, according to Russian media reports, the regime representatives only formulated the demand for alleged "protection" from Moldova and should not apply for accession to Russia.

Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin also preferred to deal with other issues than annexing Transnistria in his state of the nation speech shortly afterwards.

Security experts argue that such a move could be problematic for Putin.

Nico Lange, senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference, wrote on X that Putin's military options were "very limited there."

"Russia can't reinforce itself either by air or by sea."

sol/afp