Opinion polls indicate Trump (left) ahead of Biden in 4 swing states (Associated Press)
After the landslide victory achieved by former US President Donald Trump over his rival Nikki Haley in the primary elections in the state of Michigan yesterday, Tuesday, which comes a few days after his victory over her in her stronghold of South Carolina, it has become clear that the competition to obtain the Republican Party nomination for the presidential elections has been decided in his favor. .
All indicators so far seem to reinforce the expectations that have long indicated that the race for the White House this year will be another round of competition between Trump and current President Joe Biden, who announced his candidacy last April for a new term in the 2024 presidential elections.
But knowing the candidates of the two parties does not help much in anticipating the outcome of the electoral battle between Biden (81 years old), who is considered the oldest American president ever, and doubts have recently arisen about his mental abilities, and Trump (77 years old), who is being pursued by the judiciary in 4 major cases in several American states.
It also seems that American voters do not feel enthusiastic about another round of racing between the two men to sit on the presidential seat in the most powerful country in the world, which observers believe may have a negative impact on the voter turnout rate in the upcoming elections, noting that the turnout rate in the 2020 elections reached 62%. %.
What are Trump's chances of winning over his Democratic rival in the presidential elections this year, and what are the obstacles that might hinder his efforts to return to the White House?
Trump has won the Republican Party primaries in 5 states so far (American press)
Indicators
The successive victories achieved by Trump during the primary elections, the most recent of which was his victory over his rival Haley in Michigan - yesterday, Tuesday - and South Carolina last Sunday, a state that Haley ruled for 6 years, indicate the extent of his popularity among Republican Party voters.
Trump won the six states that have witnessed primary elections so far: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and the US Virgin Islands, which prompted the withdrawal of all Republican candidates facing him except Haley.
According to a report published by the Washington Post by journalist Aaron Blake, Trump is the first Republican candidate outside the White House to win a landslide in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and he added Nevada and South Carolina to them, in another precedent, as the same report indicates that he is the first candidate from both parties outside the White House to sweep. The two states since they began holding primaries in 2008.
After the defeat she suffered in her stronghold, observers are unlikely that Haley will achieve any significant progress in the remaining primaries, and opinion polls indicate that Trump is ahead of her in the Michigan state elections, which began in the early morning hours local time in the state on Tuesday.
The competition in Michigan is the last major race before the primaries expand on Super Tuesday, when 15 states hold elections on March 5.
Despite the aforementioned results that indicate his popularity among Republican Party voters, Trump faces challenges that are not insignificant, as opinion polls indicate that about 31% of voters believe that he will not be qualified to hold the position of president if he is convicted in the cases in which he is being prosecuted before the American judiciary. .
According to a report in the Washington Post, opinion polls in 3 states where Trump won the primary elections indicate that 3 out of 10 voters believe that Trump will not be fit for the presidency if he is judicially convicted.
Trump supporters used a forensic photo taken of him in an Atlanta prison to collect donations for his campaign (Reuters)
Bumps on the road to the White House
Perhaps this is the first election in which Americans find themselves forced to choose between two elderly presidents whose mental abilities are in doubt, and the judiciary is pursuing one of them - Trump - in 4 cases in which he faces a combined 91 criminal charges.
Trump was convicted in one of the cases filed against him this month, as a New York court ruled on Friday, February 16, to fine him $355 million in a financial fraud case.
Trump will be tried in some cases next month, including the case of conspiring to overturn the results of the presidential elections, which are scheduled for next March 4 in Washington.
Also, some of the cases in which Trump is being prosecuted could carry a sentence of up to 20 years if he is convicted, which has prompted some political analysts, including political expert Julian Zelizer, to interpret Trump’s Republican rival Nikki Haley’s insistence on not withdrawing from the race against him despite her successive losses, as saying that Hold out long enough for legal action to undermine Trump's candidacy.
Observers do not rule out the hypothesis of his conviction before the presidential elections on November 5, and many opinion polls indicate that his popularity will decline significantly if that happens.
American officials said that anger over Biden’s handling of the Gaza war may lead to a decline in his support (Getty)
Biden's dilemma
But despite the aforementioned challenges that may impede Trump’s aggressive march towards the White House, it seems that his chances may not be bad, especially given the challenges facing his opponent Biden, the Democratic candidate who removed him from the White House in 2020.
Biden - the only Democratic candidate so far - faces challenges, most notably the doubts surrounding his mental abilities, which have become a concern for many Americans, in addition to feelings of anger and frustration among Democrats due to the US President’s unconditional support for the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip.
A report published by Reuters - yesterday, Tuesday - indicated a decline in Biden's popularity due to his position on the war on Gaza, and the agency quoted a senior adviser to Biden's election campaign as saying that the party was harmed by its support for Israel in a way that was more than expected.
Biden's chances declined in some swing states, most notably the state of Michigan, where Biden won the primary elections yesterday, Tuesday, and where he narrowly won over Trump in the 2020 presidential elections.
Michigan is now witnessing a movement of Arab and Muslim Democrats and supporters of the Palestinian issue calling for punishing Biden and not voting for him in the presidential elections because of his position on the war on Gaza.
Arab and Muslim Democrats in the state have launched a campaign urging voters to vote “non-compliant” in the Democratic Party primary elections, in protest against Biden’s policies towards Gaza and his support for the war on it, and the campaign has gained growing momentum over the past few weeks.
Wall Street Journal: Opinion polls in Michigan indicate difficulties facing Biden that put his re-election in jeopardy due to the conflict in Gaza #Gaza_War #News pic.twitter.com/abe1qGh8GL
- Al Jazeera Channel (@AJArabic) January 22, 2024
Who will win the 2024 elections?
In an analysis published in The Times newspaper, journalist David Charter believes that if the two parties confirm the nominations of Trump and Biden at their national conferences, the results of the general elections on November 5 will likely be close.
He says that, unlike what happened in 2020, when opinion polls always indicated Biden’s lead over his opponent Trump, opinion polls this year indicate that Trump is slightly ahead of Biden in many states.
He explains that recent opinion polls indicate that Trump is ahead of his Democratic opponent in 4 swing states, which may decide the outcome of the elections.
He also points out that there is another factor whose impact is difficult to predict in the upcoming elections, which is the role played by independent candidates.
For his part, political analyst Osama Abu Irshaid believes that the race for the White House this year between the two men is different from the race between them in 2020, which ended with Biden’s victory.
Irshaid said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that the momentum that overwhelmed the last elections and the desire to get rid of Trump due to his mismanagement of the Corona pandemic and its repercussions, his repeated clashes with state agencies, the worsening disagreements within his party and even with the army, and the escalation of racism in the United States are all factors that led to the mobilization of public opinion to get rid of him. .
But the equation has now been reversed, as Biden is facing dissatisfaction within his party due to several factors, including his age and the decline of the American economy, in addition to his role in the war on Gaza, which gives Trump a real opportunity to outperform him and win the upcoming elections.
Some observers believe that independent candidates in the presidential elections will play a decisive role in favoring one of the two party's candidates during the elections at the expense of the other.
While awaiting the developments and surprises that the next eight months that separate us from the presidential elections may bring, which may raise the fortunes of one party and collapse the fortunes of another, Trump remains the most likely candidate in the upcoming presidential elections, according to observers.
Source: Al Jazeera