China News Service, Beijing, February 27 (Reporter Chen Su) The reporter learned from the China Meteorological Administration on the 27th that this El Niño event has passed its peak and is expected to end around April 2024.
According to monitoring by the National Climate Center, in January 2024, the sea surface temperature in most of the equatorial Pacific was higher than the same period in normal years, and the warm water center in the eastern Pacific was more than 2.5°C higher.
The sea temperature index in the key El Niño monitoring area (Niño 3.4 area) is 1.80°C, a decrease of 0.22°C from December 2023, indicating that this El Niño event (starting in May 2023) has begun to decay since January 2024, and the peak has appeared In December 2023, there will be a moderate intensity El Niño event.
The tropical atmosphere responds quickly and changes in concert with sea temperatures.
In January 2024, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 0.31, an increase of 0.61 from the previous month.
There is abnormal rising motion over the tropical western Pacific and near the date line, abnormal rising motion over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, and abnormal sinking motion over the central and western equatorial Indian Ocean.
Combining predictions from domestic and foreign dynamic climate models and statistical methods, the National Climate Center predicts that sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to decline in the next three months, and the El Niño event will end around April 2024.
Regarding the impact of the late El Niño on China, the National Climate Center previously stated that in the spring of 2024, temperatures in most parts of China are expected to be higher than normal for the same period. Except for the southwest, precipitation in most other parts of the country will be close to normal to above normal.
Meteorological drought is likely to develop in most of the southwest, and the forest fire danger level is higher in the central and western regions.
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