The "Ukraine in 2024" forum in Kiev reviews current year's expectations for developments in the Ukrainian war (Al Jazeera)
Kiev -
On the occasion of the two-year anniversary of the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the capital, Kiev, yesterday, Sunday, witnessed the activities of the “Ukraine in 2024” forum, in the presence of dozens of local and foreign journalists, and representatives of civil society organizations.
Ukraine mobilized its senior officials for this event, and it was clear that the purpose was to broadcast certain messages, reveal other information and clarify, and anticipate what developments this year might bring, depending on internal and external factors.
Zelensky expects continued difficulties facing his country's forces during the next two months (Al Jazeera)
Military advance
Defense Minister Rustam Amirov spoke during the forum about Ukraine's military plans to penetrate the Russians' defenses and advance deep into Ukrainian territory they control.
He stressed that this year's plans will be successful, holding the West responsible for the failure of Ukrainian counter-operations in 2023, due to the delay in the arrival of 50% of the required military aid, he said.
During a press conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his expectations of facing difficulties in the coming months that will be affected by Russia's preparations for an attack in the summer.
Oleksiy Danilov: I am sure that American aid will continue regardless of the election results (Al Jazeera)
F-16 arrival
To achieve a major breakthrough, Ukraine relies on achieving a balance in air power, through receiving and using the promised F-16 aircraft, which the Ukrainians are currently training in many countries.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, told Al Jazeera Net, on the sidelines of the forum, “It was the Russians’ control of the airspace that led to the recent fall of Avdiivka, in addition to many other cities before that. Their aviation destroyed the cities.”
Danilov added: “I do not consider this a victory, as these cities are not their cities in the first place, and they are cities that were already wiped off the map, not to mention that they have been trying to control them since 2014. In the end, these cities are not the size of Berlin or Paris, so what great victory are they talking about?” ?
Kirilo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, threatened the Russians with qualitative operations (communication sites)
A feast for the Russians
For his part, the head of the Military Intelligence Department in the Ministry of Defense, Kirilo Budanov, promised the Russians qualitative operations during the current year, whether inside their territory, or in the territories under their control.
He said: "The regime in Russia will not collapse without our help. We are already working for that. The presence of this regime poses a permanent danger to the world in the future."
Budanov sent a message to the residents of Crimea, saying: “New surprises await the enemies. I do not advise the civilian population to use the so-called Crimean Bridge.”
In another regard, the same spokesman said: “Russia did not receive missiles from Iran, and only used a few North Korean missiles.”
Defense Minister Rustam Omerov: 50% of military aid did not arrive on time (Al Jazeera)
Warfare marches and techniques
Also according to Defense Minister Omerov, the current war is out of the ordinary in that it is a war with drones controlled by smartphones, in addition to being a war in which the amount of ammunition and the number of soldiers do not affect it as modern technologies do, he said.
In the same context, Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Sectors Oleksandr Kamyshin stated that his country has tripled its military production in general in 2023, and plans to double it 6 times in 2024.
For this purpose, according to Kamyshin, 100 state military industries companies and 400 private companies are working, all of which include about 300,000 employees and workers, and production areas include marches, and all types of machinery and weapons.
As an example, Kamyshin pointed out that Ukraine increased the production of mortar shells 42 times, and various artillery ammunition 2.8 times, noting that “Ukraine’s need for these ammunition exceeds the production capabilities of the United States and European countries combined.”
In a related context, Mykhailo Fyodorov, Minister of Digital Transformation, pointed out that drones have become a major weapon in war, and are now classified like other weapons.
Also, 90% of the drones his country uses are manufactured in Ukraine.
Fyodorov acknowledged that his country would not outnumber Russia (in terms of weapons and soldiers), but he stressed that “the balance of minds and technical progress” tips in favor of Ukraine, with its domestic production and the aid it receives.
Obsession with the American elections
The forum repeatedly touched on the issue of Western support in general, and American support in particular, and Ukrainian concerns regarding the decline in the desire to support Kiev in Washington, especially if former President Donald Trump comes to power again, who explicitly opposed helping Ukraine.
It was clear that the participating Ukrainians agreed in their answers about the policy of reducing these concerns, including the statement of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, to Al Jazeera Net: “We must not confuse the politics of governance with electoral races. When the president holds the position of president, he is informed of information "There are different facts, and decisions are based on them. This is an important fact."
He added: “The elections are an American internal matter. Our dealings are at the level of countries, and not at the level of the personalities of presidents. Let us mention that Ukraine received the first American defense military aid during Trump’s term in office. I am sure that American support will not stop, even if it slows down for some reason.” "Or else."
Don't be afraid of Russia
Regarding the difference in Western positions regarding the extent of support for Ukraine, and the fear of some capitals of “angering Russia,” Mykhailo Podolak, advisor to the president, spoke about his country’s policy to dispel “artificial fears.”
He said: “Everyone is concerned about the future. The Russian threat is one of the biggest “artificial fears” affecting the lives of Europeans and others today. Russia is a large country in terms of its area and the size of its resources. But it is weak in its policies and the corruption of its regime, and even in its weapons that do not compare with the quality of Western weapons. Russia must "Face it firmly, not slowly."
Regarding the same issue, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, told Al Jazeera Net: “We are in a real third world war, which the Russians practically started by attacking Georgia in 2008. Then the civilized world closed its mouth and eyes and covered its ears, and with the weakness of its position, it gave Putin the opportunity to do more. "And it happened, and it happens after that."
Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klimenko: 20% of the internal forces support the “attack” forces of the National Guard (Al Jazeera)
Ukraine reveals its losses
For the first time in two years, the Ukrainian president revealed that the number of Ukrainian army deaths since the beginning of the war reached 31,000, but he refused to specify the numbers of those injured, because they contain “secrets that help the enemy move.”
Pointing out that Russian losses amount to 500,000 dead and wounded, especially since “for every Ukrainian soldier there are 7 Russian soldiers.”
In order to participate and fill the gaps, the Minister of the Interior, Ihor Klimenko, announced the formation of 10 units of the “attack” forces of the National Guard, which includes about 10,000 fighters alongside the armed forces, which represents about 20% of the Interior forces.”
Regarding Ukraine’s civilian losses over two years, plaques in the forum hall indicated that 11,869 civilians were killed, including 527 children, and 18,962 were wounded, including 1,224 children.
In addition to psychological problems facing 77% of Ukrainians due to the war.
The Ukrainian Attorney General, Andriy Kostin, confirmed that his country has documented about 142,000 war crimes, and is working hard to put Putin and his entourage on trial, whether through the International Court of Justice, or special courts for the Russian war on Ukraine.
Responsible for the human rights file in the Ukrainian Parliament, Dmytro Lobinets (Al Jazeera)
Release of civilians
Regarding the prisoners, the head of the human rights file in the Ukrainian Parliament, Dmytro Lobinets, renewed his previous assertion that “international organizations are not working,” noting that 28,000 Ukrainians are being held by Russia.
Lobinets also noted that "exchanging civilians for civilians is prohibited under international law. Therefore, Ukraine is looking for new methods and countries that can join the process of returning civilian hostages."
He continued in this regard: "The Qatari Prime Minister expressed in Doha a week ago his country's readiness to try to return civilian hostages. We need to establish an international coalition for this purpose."
Yermak: The first peace summit will be hosted by Switzerland without the participation of Russia (Al Jazeera)
International peace summit
The end of the war, from the Ukrainian perspective, must be through a peace summit based on “security guarantees” promoted by the Ukrainian president’s office in the countries of the world, from 10 points that record a consensus among all countries.
This was confirmed by Andrey Yermak, Director of the Presidential Office, noting that Switzerland will witness a global summit on peace in Ukraine in the spring of this year.
But he pointed out that Russia will not be present, and after the summit, the participating countries will work together to develop a peace plan in Ukraine, and Russia may be invited to attend the second summit on this matter.”
Economic recovery
Regarding the economy, officials spoke positively about the recovery witnessed last year, after a major setback that practically lasted until mid-2022.
Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal expected that his country would soon receive $12 billion from the United States, and the World Bank pledged to support Kiev over a period of 4 years, with about $15 billion, with guarantees from the “Group of Seven” (G7) countries.
Yulia Sviridenko, Deputy Minister of Economy, pointed to the return of 90% of Ukrainian companies to work, and a growth of about 6.6% achieved by the country by the end of 2023, after a decline of 29.1% due to the war.
She also indicated that Ukraine received budget income support of about $75.4 billion, and a major improvement in port traffic, with the export of 12 million tons of grain last year.
Source: Al Jazeera