15,200 candidates are competing for 290 seats in the parliamentary elections in Iran early next month (Al Jazeera)

Tehran -

Iranian circles expect that popular participation will constitute an important obstacle in the upcoming electoral elections, similar to the 2021 presidential elections, in light of the reluctance of many prominent figures to run, or the exclusion of others according to the “desirability control” mechanism that determines the eligibility of candidates.

There are those who believe that parliamentary elections have a local character, and that citizens’ behavior in them differs from their behavior in presidential elections.

This is because they do not submit to political and partisan alignments, and their preferences are local and regional, and perhaps tribal and familial.

More than 61 million Iranians are entitled to vote in the 2024 elections (Al Jazeera)

Lend legitimacy to the system

Political researcher Ahmed Zeidabadi told Al Jazeera Net, “The Islamic Republic has always considered the level of public participation in elections as an indication of the people’s support for the political system,” and this has been argued by local and foreign critics and opponents, considering that its regime has legitimacy supported by the majority of the Iranian people.

He added that the failure of the majority of the people to participate in the elections constitutes a challenge to the regime’s “claim” of relying on the vote of the majority, which also raises criticism from opponents.

Zaidabadi believes that “the general environment, which can be interpreted as a mobilization of the collective spirit,” plays an important role in Iranians’ participation in the elections, as this collective spirit depends on hope or despair about the future, the economic situation, social satisfaction, and foreign policies.

He concludes by saying, "I see that the collective spirit of Iranian society has moved away from the ballot boxes, and does not show any enthusiasm for them."

Zeidabadi: The political system in Iran considers participation as a form of legitimizing it (Al Jazeera)

Local behaviour

Political analyst Mokhtar Haddad believed that popular participation is always important, as the Islamic Revolution emphasizes the role of the people in determining their fate.

For comparison, he says that in the last parliamentary elections in France, the participation rate did not exceed 20%, while in the last parliamentary elections in Iran, this percentage reached 47%.

He told Al Jazeera Net that, based on this, he does not believe that there is a major challenge in this regard, as he expected that the upcoming elections in Iran would witness high participation, explaining that the parliamentary elections are different from the presidential elections and are of a local nature. “If we isolate the capital, Tehran, which is characterized by behavior... "The electoral process is political and partisan, and the Iranian elections will witness high participation in other cities."

In this regard, Haddad explained that political affiliations in major cities, especially the capital, play a major role in electoral behavior.

But in general, in parliamentary elections, economic and social issues play an important role, in addition to the individual interests of the candidates and their influence on voters’ decisions.

Mukhtar Haddad: Voting behavior in parliamentary elections is linked to economic and social issues and individual interests (Al Jazeera)

War rhetoric escalated

Political analyst and head of an electoral headquarters affiliated with the reformist movement, Mehdi Shirzad, considered that the turnout rate in the elections constitutes a challenge to every democracy in the world, not just Iran. But what gives more importance to the current Iranian elections is that they are taking place at a time when the country has been witnessing consistency in The authorities, meaning that one ideology and trend controls the government.

On the other hand, Shirzad told Al Jazeera Net that Iran is going through dangerous and sensitive circumstances at the international level in addition to regional tension, and this doubles the importance of the elections to the authorities and the participation rate in them.

But he says that the fundamentalist movement that now rules does not pay attention to this importance and insists on adopting closed elections, and resorting to the exclusion of candidates from the anti-government movement, “and it seems that parts of the regime do not want a high participation rate.”

Shirzad added that there is another determinant added to the importance of these elections on the political level, “which is that a section of what we can call “the other,” that is, an ideology and orientation different from the government, which is represented by the reformist movement, decided to boycott the elections, while there is another section of the same movement that believes in preserving the electoral process. Through active participation in the elections.

He said that this difference of opinions in the reformist house came out into the open and led to the birth of a new political movement from the heart of the reformist movement, and in his opinion, "this is important for the political scene in Iran."

Official propaganda continues for a week before the elections in Iran (Al Jazeera)

The boycott is a challenge

Shirzad believed that the main challenge to the elections in Iran is that the majority of society believes that their vote in the elections does not bring about change, and does not create an impact on the political scene and the general situation in the country.

He added that until this moment, it seems that people in the major cities are not paying attention to the elections, and the scene appears as if people are treating the elections with indifference and boycott resulting from anger.

Regarding the electoral behavior of Iranian citizens, Shirzad stressed the importance of citizens feeling that their electoral vote has an impact on the policies and administration of the country.

He explained that in many cities there is a local, regional behavior that dominates the general political behavior in the electoral process, and that some groups, such as retirees or teachers, are not interested in public policies, but rather the representative who meets their demands.

He concluded by saying, "Public opinion still lacks interest and passion in participating in the elections, and we will not see a good turnout rate, but there are concerns among people about the escalation of warlike rhetoric toward the country, which may push them to participate in the coming days."

Source: Al Jazeera