Withdrawal of peacekeeping forces from Somalia... contexts, achievements and challenges

Highlights: Withdrawal of peacekeeping forces from Somalia... contexts, achievements and challenges. African forces in Somalia have begun to gradually withdraw and hand over tasks and bases to Somali forces before the end of 2024. What is the nature of that African force? Is the Somali government ready to assume these tasks? In April 2022, a new African Union transitional mission - “ATMIS” - took over responsibility from the “AMISOM” mission, assigning it to support the Somali federal government.

African forces in Somalia have begun to gradually withdraw and hand over tasks and bases to Somali forces before the end of 2024. What is the nature of that African force? Is the Somali government ready to assume these tasks?

A military parade by the Somali forces, which are preparing to fully take over security and military duties from the African Union forces (Reuters)

The African Union has begun to end the longest and largest peace process in its history, and African forces in Somalia have begun to gradually withdraw and hand over tasks and bases to Somali forces, in a process planned to be completed by the end of 2024.

This report highlights the nature of the mission, its tasks, what it accomplished throughout its period of service in Somalia, the most prominent challenges it faced, and whether the Somali government and its military and security agencies are ready to assume these tasks.

Growing up circumstances

After the collapse of the Somali government in 1990, and the outbreak of civil war between the two war leaders at the time, Generals Ali Mahdi Mohamed and Mohamed Farah Aidid, the United Nations tried to establish a mission called “Unosom” for humanitarian operations.

Later in 1992, with a lack of response and response, the United States of America established the “Restoring Hope” force to be part of the United Nations task force known as “UNITAF”, which was also unsuccessful, and chaos continued in Somalia for a decade. And half a decade.

A previous review of the forces of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) (Reuters)

African mission

In 2005, an Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mission called IGADSOM was proposed to provide peacekeeping forces, and the Islamic Courts had not yet taken control of Mogadishu.

After the courts took control of the capital in 2006, the African Union quickly established AMISOM forces, which replaced IGAD forces.

According to the definition of the Institute for Peacekeeping and Stability, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is a regional peacekeeping mission run by the African Union with the approval of the United Nations.

It was established by the African Union Peace and Security Council on 19 January 2007 with an initial mandate of 6 months, and approved by the United Nations Security Council in Resolution 1744. In February and August 2007, the UN Security Council encouraged AMISOM To undertake new tasks.

Al-Shabaab militants in a show of force in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in 2008 (Reuters)

Formation and tasks

The African Union Mission in Somalia was composed of 4 main components: the army, the police, a section for civil affairs, and another for humanitarian affairs, but the military component was the main component of the mission.

The mission was headed by Ugandan General Jim Besigye Owesigir, and the mission consisted of Djibouti, Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, and a limited force from Sierra Leone.

The Ugandan unit is considered the largest in terms of numbers, as the number of its forces exceeded 6,000 individuals, while the total military force reached 22,000 members from a mission of 28,000 individuals.

As for the tasks, Simon Molong, Deputy Commission of the African Union in Mogadishu, summarized them - in an interview with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies - saying that the mission’s first task was to expel Al-Shabaab from the capital and create conditions that would enable the transitional federal government to work.

Molong points out that UN Security Council Resolution No. 1772 stipulated that among the mission's tasks was to support the transitional federal government, implement the national security strategy, in addition to training the Somali security forces, and helping to create a safe environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid.

African Union forces enabled the Somali government to control several important areas (Anatolia)

From "Amisom" to "Atmis"

In April 2022, a new African Union transitional mission - called “ATMIS” - took over responsibility from the “AMISOM” mission, pursuant to African Peace and Security Council Resolution No. 1068, assigning ATMIS to support the Somali federal government in implementing the transitional plan and transferring security responsibilities. To Somali security forces and institutions.

Explaining the nature of the transfer of tasks from “AMISOM” to “ATMIS”, the African Union Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Bankole Adeoye, said that ATMIS was created to be more flexible and capable of movement, and it is also designed to have rapid reaction forces, in addition to responding to emerging and evolving security threats. Better and prepare the Somali security forces to assume the country's security responsibilities.

Several reports confirmed that the establishment of the Atmis transitional mission came under the urging of the Somali government and its desire to gradually transfer security responsibilities to the Somali forces.

Achievements and failures

Observers believe that one of the most important achievements of the African forces in Somalia was to remove the Al-Shabaab movement from the capital, Mogadishu, in 2011, and to extend the state’s influence over the Lower and Middle Shabelle regions after they had been besieged in the capital, which later paved the way for the formation of parliament and the election of the president, which created a positive political environment. In addition to providing protection for government headquarters and main facilities in Mogadishu, such as the airport and port, and training the Somali police and providing them with the necessary equipment and tools.

As for the failures, most reports and research focus on the inability of African forces to defeat Al-Shabaab despite their expulsion from the capital and a number of cities, in addition to their inability to work as a single unit due to disagreements between the commanders of the forces of the countries contributing to the mission.

The mission also failed to persuade Somali political elites to reconcile, and was also unable to protect civilians in its areas of operations despite the African Union developing a strategy to protect civilians and rules of engagement for the protection of civilians.

Many challenges

An analysis by the African Institute for Security Studies indicated that the most prominent challenges facing African forces in Somalia are the inability to balance military tasks in fighting Al-Shabaab and working to address the roots of the problem, which are clan polarization and the politicization of the tribe, which has given the movement popularity in some areas. What researcher Paul D. Williams described as “the imbalance between hard power and soft power.”

In his research entitled “The Struggle for Peace in Somalia,” Williams talked about

a number of challenges facing African forces in Somalia, which are:

Problems of internal coordination between the mission’s components:
The strategic planning and political work of the African Union mission takes place in Addis Ababa, while the mission’s main headquarters and the mission analysis unit are located in Nairobi, while the military units and operations command were in Mogadishu, in addition to the fact that the head of the mission is outside Somalia.
Quarrelsome partners:
This is related to the local environment partners in Somalia, including the Somali government, and the problems related to the Somalis’ view of the government as an external creation, in addition to some armed parties that do not view the government’s legitimacy positively, which makes their members vulnerable to polarization in favor of other parties.
Coordination between external partners:
The lack of coordination between international partners in Somalia has remained one of the challenges facing the mission, due to the large number of parties that express cooperation, but in an atmosphere of chaos and disorganization.
Lack of resources:
This challenge is considered one of the challenges that most affect the mission’s performance, as it is linked to gaps related to a number of aspects such as planning, administrative capabilities, and financing, which is what reports from the African Institute for Security Studies indicated as the most prominent challenges that hinder the accomplishment of the mission’s tasks in Somalia.

Somalis in a previous protest in Mogadishu in support of the war against Al-Shabaab (Anatolia)

Reasons for terminating mission tasks

According to a study prepared by the Somali Center for Studies on the exit of the Atmis mission from Somalia, the period set by the African Union and supported by the UN Security Council is 3 years (2022-2024), to implement the main tasks.

Although a major part of these tasks was not completed properly, the

forces began to withdraw for the following reasons:

The funding dilemma:
In light of the African Union’s inability to finance the mission, the European Union took over paying the salaries of its personnel, but with the decline in achievements on the ground and the expansion of the areas controlled by Al-Shabaab, funding began to decline.
The mission's failures to accomplish the tasks assigned to it
: The reference here is specifically to the weakening of the Al-Shabaab movement, which is still capable of targeting the main centers in Somalia.
Increasing the number of Somali forces:
by training large numbers in preparation for assuming the duties of African forces.
According to government sources, the government is still training additional forces to reach the numbers that qualify them to carry out all necessary security and military tasks in attack and defense.
The success of the Somali military strategy:
This is represented in achieving effective results in the theater of operations against Al-Shabaab, despite some setbacks it suffered at the beginning of 2023, and the government has undertaken measures to restructure the army so that it regains its effectiveness and dynamism.

Doubts and fears

At the Somali arena level, assessments and positions on the operation vary. Some Somali government officials confirm the readiness of government forces to assume tasks and their ability to extend their control and control in all tracks, while some opposition politicians fear the situation will collapse once the withdrawal of African forces is complete.

Earlier, officials of the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia said that the withdrawal of forces would not affect security and stability in the country.

Mohamed El Amin Soueif, Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission in Somalia and Head of Atmis, said that the Mission remains committed to ensuring an efficient and effective transition that does not jeopardize the security of Somalis.

The Somali government trained about 23,000 recruits in preparation for assuming security and military duties in the country (French)

Somali preparations

Several factors increased the need to rearrange the papers of the security and military establishment in Somalia after the current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud assumed power, namely:

First:
The president’s announcement of his intention to resolve the battle with Al-Shabaab militarily, and his rejection of any understanding with it, which called for the necessity of adequate military preparation.
Second:
The final departure of the African Union mission from Somalia by the end of 2024, the transfer of operational tasks to the Somali side, and the need to arm some local forces loyal to the government, to fight the decisive battle.

The government has been able to accomplish a lot by training thousands of soldiers in Eritrea, Uganda, Egypt, and inside the country, where informed sources estimate their number at about 23,000 recruits. It has also trained some forces for special missions in other countries.

Optimists and pessimists

Optimists believe that the situation in Somalia is more prepared than ever before to bear all the responsibilities related to the management of security and military affairs, especially since Somalia has been exempted from debts and has the ability to deal with international financial institutions, and the arms embargo on Somalia has been lifted, which enables it to arm itself. It will meet its needs for military equipment, and thus it will be able to restrain and defeat Al-Shabaab.

On the other hand, pessimists believe that the situation in Somalia is still fragile and could collapse in a short time due to the strong military presence on the ground of Al-Shabaab, and hence the fear that Somalia will return to the stage of complete failure, as happened in the early 1990s.

Source: Al Jazeera