Route analysis of sanctioned ships “transporting Russian weapons” Confirmation of travel to and from related countries

NHK's analysis of the routes of ships that have been sanctioned by the U.S. government for transporting Russian weapons has revealed that some Russian ships have recently been traveling to and from countries with deep ties, such as the Middle East. It has been confirmed that there is.

Last year, in May 2022, the U.S. State Department placed 69 ships operated by Russian shipping companies under new sanctions, including asset freezes, for transporting tanks and military equipment for the Russian Ministry of Defense. We have announced that we will add it.

NHK independently analyzed the routes of those ships since October last year.

As a result, 13 vessels were confirmed to have departed from Russia or arrived at a Russian port from abroad.

There are a total of six ships sailing through the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, calling at ports in Turkey and Egypt, two countries in the Middle East that have close ties with Russia.One of these ships arrived on October 9th at Novorossiysk, southern Russia, where there is also a naval base. The ship departed from the port, called at Alexandria in northern Egypt on October 15th, and made four round trips along the same route until January this year.

In addition, ships were also seen heading from the vicinity of Crimea, which Russia unilaterally annexed, to ports in southern Turkey.

Meanwhile, five of the 13 ships were sailing through the Caspian Sea and calling at Iran.

Public information does not reveal the cargo on either ship.

Yuyuki Hasegawa, a researcher at the Defense Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense, who is an expert on Russian security, notes that many ships take the route from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, saying, ``The Bosphorus and Dardanelles, which are controlled by Turkey, are important to Russia. "It may be a lifeline."

He added, ``Russia appears to be using a variety of methods to bring in strategic items that Russia views as important supplies to support the war in Ukraine and its survival as a nation.'' It has been pointed out that there is a possibility that they were carrying military supplies.

On the other hand, regarding the active traffic with Iranian ports, ``This highlights the importance of the Caspian Sea in terms of trade.It may be a major shipping route for importing unmanned aircraft from Iran.'' Analyzing.

The actual situation of import and export of ships of Russian shipping companies

NHK received records of Russian imports and exports from C4ADS, an American research institute that investigates the reality of so-called "sanctions evasion," and found that the vessels of Russian shipping companies that were subject to sanctions were being transported. We analyzed the supplies.

The records provided concern two Russian shipping companies that were subject to sanctions by the U.S. government for transporting weapons and other items for the Russian Ministry of Defense, starting after the invasion of Ukraine in February last year. These are about 300 import/export records up to June last year.

The records contain details such as the date and time of imports and exports, the goods, and the countries of departure and arrival.

Records of imports into Russia include substitute parts for ship equipment, metal products, and supplies such as marine engines and engine parts, some of which have additional explanations such as ``not for military use.'' Some things were added.

These goods were also imported from European countries such as Germany and Poland before May of last year, when the US government imposed sanctions on shipping companies, but since then the main source of imports has been Turkey. .

Yuyuki Hasegawa, a researcher at the Ministry of Defense's National Institute for Defense Studies, who is an expert on Russian security, said, ``My impression is that engines and other supplies are being shipped continuously.Although they are being shipped to Russia as civilian goods, they could soon be used for military purposes.'' '' analyzes that the supplies may have been diverted to military use.

Russia is facing a shortage of weapons; could it be procuring from North Korea or Iran?

Russia, which is facing a shortage of weapons due to sanctions from Europe and the United States, is believed to be procuring ammunition and other weapons from North Korea and Iran.

The US government announced last October that military supplies such as ammunition were transported from North Korea to an ammunition depot in the south via ports in Russia's Far East.

In addition, Ukrainian media reported that 24 North Korean ballistic missiles were launched by Russia towards Ukraine between late December and early February of last year, and at least 14 civilians were killed in the attack. It is reported that a person has died.

In an initial investigation report, Ukrainian authorities said two types of short-range ballistic missiles were fired, and that only two of the missiles were "relatively accurate."

Meanwhile, Ukraine has repeatedly pointed out that Russia is using suicide drones supplied by Iran in its attacks.

In addition, a senior US White House official pointed out on February 22 that Iran has provided Russia with many drones, guided bombs, and ammunition.

Furthermore, it is said that negotiations are progressing for Iran to provide short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.

The Iranian government has consistently denied supplying weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine.

“Russian weapons ``sanction evasion'' imported parts are used.''

It has been pointed out that Russia's weapons use many parts imported from foreign countries to avoid sanctions.

The group, which includes researchers from the United States, Ukraine, and other countries, and is investigating the effects of sanctions against Russia, has examined approximately 2,800 foreign-made parts found in missiles and drones used by Russia during the invasion. The report was published in January.

The parts found include integrated circuits and cameras, whose export to Russia is restricted by Europe, the United States and Japan because they could be used as weapons.

As for the countries where parts are produced

, the United States has the largest share at 72%

, followed by Switzerland at 6%

, Japan at 5%

, and China at 4%.

It is pointed out that these parts are passed from the country of production to multiple suppliers and then imported to Russia via third countries such as China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

According to the report, a year ago, Russia's import value of parts regulated by sanctions was at one point down to about 50% of what it was before the invasion.

However, the value of imports from January to October last year amounted to $8.77 billion, which is only about a 10% decrease compared to before the invasion. "However, he has made a significant recovery."

Benjamin Hilgenstock, a member of the survey and a senior economist at a think tank in the capital, Kiev, said, ``Russia is still able to import many of the parts that we should be regulating.'' "There are serious problems. The private sector is also unable to effectively manage supply chains."

He added, ``Russia needs foreign-made parts for use in things like guided weapons. Export restrictions alone won't end the war, but if the parts needed for missiles and drones are no longer available, "We can reduce attacks," he said.