China News Service, February 24 (Zhang Naiyue, Wei Chenxi, Meng Xiangjun) Entering 2024, the IL-76 military aircraft was attacked by "Rashomon", the Ukrainian armed forces changed generals, and control of the important town of Donetsk changed hands...a series of events Drawing people's attention once again to the front line of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.

　　On the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the question that many people are most concerned about is: How long will Russia and Ukraine continue to fight?

Where will the turning point of the situation occur?

When will the dawn of peace come?

　　Regarding the direction of the Ukraine crisis and its impact on the global situation, China News Network specially invited Liu Ying, director and researcher of the Cooperative Research Department of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, Zhang Hong, researcher at the Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and China Institute of International Studies Chen Yurong, a researcher at the Eurasian Institute, solved the problem.

File photo: Avdeyevka.

Military stalemate continues

Russia and Ukraine "lost a lot"

　　Continuous wars, population decline, and economic recession... As the "breadbasket" of Europe, large areas of black land in Ukraine have become scorched earth, and some industrial cities have been reduced to rubble.

　　Many experts have pointed out that Ukraine "may have fallen into its most difficult period in two years."

Due to the huge losses suffered by both sides in positional warfare and war of attrition, and the delay in the arrival of Western military aid, Ukraine is facing increasing difficulties in the military confrontation.

　　At the same time, Russia has lost a lot in this crisis.

　　There were huge explosions in Moscow, Ukrainian drones flew over the city, and unmanned boats raided the Russian Black Sea Fleet... The intervention of high-tech means such as Starlink and drones has dealt a big blow to Russia.

　　"In this two-year military stalemate, both Russia and Ukraine paid a heavy price." Chen Yurong said.

Data map: "Haimas" high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system.

　　Recently, control of Avdeyevka, a major town in Donetsk, changed hands, attracting widespread attention from the outside world.

After the Ukrainian army announced its withdrawal from the area, Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly congratulated the Russian army on their important victory, while Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted that he was facing an "extremely difficult" situation on the front line.

After this battle, has the situation reached a new turning point?

　　In this regard, Liu Ying pointed out, "The change of hands of Avdeyevka shows from a military level that after nearly two years of war of attrition, Russia's overall national strength advantage over Ukraine has become increasingly obvious, and the Ukrainian army has lost ground in its follow-up troops and With the continued shortage of weapons and equipment, they were unable to maintain a long front and were forced to retreat proactively."

　　"At the level of politics and international relations, the advancement of the front is positively related to Russia's initiative on the international stage. At the same time, whether there will be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine depends on the game between Russia and Europe and the United States." Liu Ying believes.

Election year, big changes

Russia and Ukraine “It is difficult to usher in real peace talks”

　　Another major variable in the situation in Ukraine is the general election.

In 2024, both Russia and the United States will usher in an election year, adding many variables to the Ukraine crisis.

　　Chen Yurong and Liu Ying pointed out that in the short term, the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine will be difficult to resolve, and immediate peace talks are unlikely.

Moreover, 2024 coincides with an election year, and variables affecting peace talks will emerge intensively.

Data map: Zelensky.

　　"From Ukraine's perspective, this crisis is a 'card' played by Zelensky." Chen Yurong pointed out that according to the plan, Ukraine should hold an election in March 2024, but under the current wartime state, the election I'm afraid it can't be held. 

　　She also believes that "for Putin, winning the important town of Avdeyevka is his 'best achievement' in seeking re-election. Russia needs to take advantage of the victory and may not stop at peace talks with Ukraine."

　　For the United States, which is also facing an election in 2024, many experts believe that the strong military strength of the United States may have a greater impact on the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but the unpredictability of the U.S. political situation will add to the already complex situation. variable.

　　Judging from the current statements, Biden and Trump have very different positions on the Ukraine issue. Biden insists on "continuing to support Ukraine to contain Russia"; Trump believes that "there is no need to support Ukraine."

Data map: Biden.

　　"The United States is the biggest beneficiary of this crisis. It has not only achieved great economic gains, but also strengthened its control over European countries." Chen Yurong said, "These are achievements that will help Biden's re-election in 2024. This kind of Under such circumstances, he cannot stop the crisis in Ukraine."

　　Liu Ying pointed out that although Trump currently opposes aid to Ukraine, this is just a campaign slogan, and it is still doubtful whether it can be truly realized.

　　Zhang Hong also predicted that if there is no major internal crisis in the Western world, the diplomatic and military confrontation and confrontation between Russia and the West will exist for a long time before the end of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and even during Putin’s (future) term. , there is very little room for improvement in relations, and it can be said that it is difficult to usher in real peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

　　This "Cold War"-like state will gradually "cut" the global pattern.

If the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict cannot be controlled in the short term, the world may become more chaotic and divided, Zhang Hong concluded.

Europe is plunged into multiple anxieties

Trust deficit "freezes" relations between major powers

　　The Ukraine crisis has been mired in quagmire for two years, and the dilemma is difficult to resolve. It also reflects the unprecedented global geopolitical game between the United States and the West and Russia.

Data map: EU headquarters.

　　Zhang Hong believes that the strategic confrontation between Russia and the West is becoming long-term and solidifying.

Especially from the topic of whether the world is heading towards a "lose-lose" situation raised at the recent Munich Security Conference, it may be seen that Europe, which has been involved in the Ukraine crisis, is caught in multiple anxieties in terms of diplomacy and security.

　　Preferring to suffer losses rather than letting enemies or competitors gain is becoming one of the policies that Western countries are thinking about.

This trend reflects that Europe is not only falling into a panic, but also increasingly "Cold War-like" its thinking about global order, global issues, and regional hotspot issues, Zhang Hong pointed out.

This shows that the geopolitical crisis has caused substantial damage to global cooperation and the process of globalization.

　　He made an in-depth analysis and said that Russia now has zero interaction and communication with the entire Western world, and is in a state of isolation and marginalization.

Whether it is the Munich Security Conference or the OSCE Summit, the United States, Germany, France and other countries even refused to share the stage with Russian representatives. This shows that the two sides have fallen into a deep state of "trust deficit". It can be said that they have entered a state of "confidence deficit". "Frozen" relations between major powers.

(over)