Defend to better attack afterwards?
Two years after the Russian invasion, Ukraine officially adopted a new strategy focused on defense, aware of an "extremely difficult" situation on the front, according to the words used on February 19 by President Volodymyr Zelensky in his message daily.
Since the failure of the summer counter-offensive which cost Valery Zalouzhny his post as chief of staff of the armed forces, the time is no longer for major maneuvers aimed at finding the fault in the Russian system, according to highly placed Ukrainian sources.
“We have moved from an offensive action to a defensive operation,” admitted the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrsky, in an interview broadcast on February 13 by the German channel ZDF.
Also read: General Oleksandr Syrsky, new war hero in Ukraine
It is difficult to imagine another option for the Ukrainian army which for months has been coming up against an imposing Russian defensive line made up of trenches, concrete cones and minefields over 15 to 20 km, prohibiting the passage of armored vehicles.
"After regaining part of the ground that had been gained by the Russians, the summer of 2023 brought a turning point in the conflict. The deep Russian defensive lines literally exhausted the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The Russians still have gaps and command problems but they learn quickly and we should in no case underestimate their ability to adapt,” says Guillaume Lasconjarias, military historian and teacher at the Sorbonne.
The massive use of drones in the Ukrainian theater of war also heavily penalizes the attackers.
With these "eyes" placed on the entire front line, the battlefield has become "transparent" making the effect of surprise dear to the military obsolete.
“The notion of concentrating efforts in a space and in a place is less and less possible. Instead, we have strategies made up of multiple stabs. But in the end, this generates exhaustion,” notes Guillaume Lasconjarias.
Ammunition crisis
As a result, the front is frozen and neither of the two belligerents seems able to make the adversary bend.
“Just like during the First World War, we have reached a technological level such that we find ourselves in an impasse,” Valery Zaloujny admitted in November 2023, in an interview published in the British weekly The Economist.
"It is also necessary to take into account the recent change in leadership within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A change in leadership requires that the Armed Forces take a moment to reorganize and reorient their structure and actions in accordance with the plans of the new leader. "returning to a more defensive strategy in the short term can help carry out this reorganization," analyzes Nicolo Fasola, specialist in Russian military issues at the University of Bologna.
The alarming lack of ammunition also requires kyiv to adopt a more cautious posture.
In this war of positions, hundreds of thousands of shells are fired each month by the two armies.
However, the blocking of American aid in Congress and the delays in deliveries promised by the Europeans are heavily penalizing Ukraine in this area.
According to military experts, the "fire ratio", which measures the difference in the rate of artillery fire, is today one to ten in favor of Russia.
Also read “Tactical impasse”, Western pessimism… kyiv in search of a second wind against Russia
"Even if it tended to balance last summer, the volume of fire has always been in favor of the Russians. In the Russian-Soviet military tradition, artillery represents an extremely important dimension in shaping the field of battle. Faced with this numerous and diversified artillery, the Ukrainians have more precise guns like the French Caesar or the American M777 but with two problems: they must move more often to avoid being destroyed and they are obliged to return fire only when they know that they will hit the mark because of the lack of ammunition,” explains Guillaume Lasconjarias.
“Ukraine has increasingly limited resources,” adds Nicolo Fasola.
"It must also be emphasized that the most sophisticated equipment supplied to kyiv was not used effectively. It is illusory to think that the Ukrainian armed forces, which could not be trained in depth, could use these resources as efficiently as a Western army.
Preserve national unity
The recent withdrawal from the town of Avdiivka, in the east of the country, illustrates kyiv's new defensive posture.
After months of fierce fighting, the Ukrainian general staff made the difficult choice of tactical withdrawal, offering a symbolic victory to the Kremlin but preserving the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers at the same time.
A decision that contrasts with the extremism observed during the bloody battle of Bakhmout, a town in Donbass that fell in May 2023.
Along with the lack of ammunition, the lack of arms constitutes the other major problem of the Ukrainian army.
According to a declassified document sent to the American Congress, kyiv suffered losses in two years estimated at 70,000 dead and 120,000 injured compared to 315,000 killed or injured on the Russian side.
Beyond the losses suffered, the exhaustion of Ukrainian soldiers, some of whom have been deployed since the start of hostilities, also makes rotations necessary in the coming months.
“The real challenge of this year 2024 is the capacity for Ukraine to regain some of the flexibility of employment of the deployed brigades which are today exhausted. We will also have to be able to mobilize others , to train them, to equip them and to take them to the front. And there, it is the question of the social acceptability of the conflict which arises", explains Guillaume Lasconjarias.
To remedy the problem, a controversial bill facilitating enlistment was passed by the Ukrainian Parliament at first reading in early February, but the text also triggered a lively debate within society as the war bogged down, the stagnation of the front and the uncertainty weighing on Western support have logically affected the morale of the troops and the rear.
In this context, President Volodymyr Zelensky will have a lot to do to preserve the national unity so often praised by his Western partners.
“From a military point of view, it seems impossible to avoid some form of extension of conscription but it will be very costly politically,” confirms Nicolo Fasola.
"This also poses a problem of troop management because if people are recruited by force or against their will, there are two possibilities: either you treat your troops like Russia does, that is to say without worrying of their dignity and free will, or you end up with people who don't want to fight and follow orders, which is very problematic for your military strategy and effectiveness."
Slowly but surely
While waiting to be able to reconstitute an offensive potential, the Ukrainian army will try in the coming months to inflict maximum losses on the Russians while preserving its men and its ammunition.
But Ukraine will not just sit back.
It should continue its in-depth attacks against the logistical infrastructures of the border regions of Bryansk and Belgorod as well as those of the annexed Crimean peninsula in the hope of weakening the Russian military system.
The objective stated by kyiv, however, remains unchanged: to reconquer the territories annexed or occupied since 2014 by Russia, i.e. 18% of Ukrainian territory.
But according to analysts, only increased Western support could allow General Syrsky's troops to move forward again.
Support far from being acquired at a time when Democrats and Republicans are torn apart in the American Congress and Donald Trump, hostile to continued American aid, is trying to take back the White House.
Moscow and kyiv "are racing to rebuild their offensive capacity. If Western funds are not released, if Russia gains the advantage in one way or another, it will have the opportunity to make further progress," assures AFP Andrea Kendall-Taylor, researcher at the Center for New American Security, based in Washington.
“The dynamic has changed,” said this analyst, emphasizing that “from Putin’s point of view, 2024 is a crucial year.”
See also Ukraine, ten years after the Maidan revolution
According to experts interviewed by France 24, Russia should be able to continue to supply the front with men and equipment during the year but without being able to gain a decisive advantage in the short term.
"The front line is not expected to change radically. Over the coming months, Russia will continue to gradually erode Ukrainian control over the front line, which will nevertheless be very costly for Moscow," predicts Nicolo Fasola.
“I expect the war to continue in the same way as it does today, as a war of attrition that is going slightly, slowly but steadily in favor of Russia.”
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