China News Service, February 23 (Xinhua) As the second anniversary of the Ukraine crisis is approaching, Qian Feng, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University and a senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank, wrote an article to review and look forward to the crisis.
He pointed out that the war situation has remained stalemate over the past two years, and its influence has continued to spill over. It has extended from the military confrontation between the two countries to the competition between countries and regions in the fields of politics, economy, culture and other fields. It has intensified the evolution of the world pattern under a century of changes and further Promote in-depth adjustments to international strategic forces and patterns.
The full text of the article is as follows:
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, and the crisis in Ukraine escalated.
Looking back two years since the outbreak of the crisis, the war situation is still stalemate, and the impact continues to spill over. It is not limited to the battlefield military confrontation between the two countries, but also extends to the game between countries and regions in the fields of politics, economy, culture, etc., intensifying the world pattern after a century of changes. The evolution of the world will further promote the in-depth adjustment of international strategic forces and patterns.
Data map: Ukrainian soldiers fired with howitzers.
First of all, at the military level, the battlefield situation is changing rapidly, and the battlefield form has attracted much attention.
In 2022, Russia will attack first and then defend, while Ukraine will partially counterattack.
The two sides are seeing each other's moves, the battlefield is wide open, and the confrontation is becoming increasingly fierce.
In the early stages of the operation, Russia carried out raids on important targets throughout Ukraine, and sent ground troops in four directions to carry out deep and intersecting attacks on key cities such as Kiev, in an effort to defeat Ukraine's will to resist with blitzkrieg and achieve a quick victory.
Although certain results were achieved, the set goals were not achieved.
With the support of continued military assistance from the United States and NATO, Ukraine began to stabilize its position, implement offensive defense, and recover large areas such as Kharkiv and Kherson through the autumn offensive.
Since then, Russia has shrunk the front line, mobilized partially, abandoned the goal of encircling and annihilating the heavy military group in eastern Ukraine from the north and the south, gradually pushed forward on the nearly 1,000-kilometer front, and announced that "the four areas in eastern Ukraine will be surrendered to Russia", and the war once again fell into a stalemate.
On the one hand, in the repeated tug-of-war, the two sides experienced trench warfare conditions similar to those during World War I.
On the other hand, the widespread use of civilian satellites, artificial intelligence, and drones has significantly rewritten the way modern warfare is fought.
In 2023, the two sides stabilized the front line and shifted to key testing. The war gradually evolved into a long-lasting and consuming toughness competition.
Ukraine mobilized a larger force and received more military assistance from the United States and NATO. In June, it launched a major counteroffensive. The goal was to advance the front to the coast of the Sea of Azov and recapture the strategic towns of Melitopol and Mariupol in one fell swoop. Cut off the land transportation lines between the Russian mainland and the Crimean Peninsula, then use asymmetric tactics to contain the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and isolate the Crimean Peninsula by both sea and land.
However, due to the tight defense of the Russian army, after nearly half a year of counterattack, the Ukrainian army has advanced slowly on many fronts in the south, advancing only less than 20 kilometers on average. The strategic goal of cutting off the Russian supply line is even more out of reach.
Due to the protracted war, increasing casualties and low morale, the Ukrainian army has a serious shortage of soldiers.
The Russian Defense Minister announced at a state conference in December that the Ukrainian military casualties had exceeded 380,000.
Although Ukraine has not announced specific casualty figures, President Zelenskiy's statement at the end of 2023 that he was "considering recruiting an additional 500,000 troops" confirmed the plight of the Ukrainian army.
Entering 2024, the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of stopping.
The two countries used missiles and drones to launch air strikes on cities, ports, docks, and military industrial facilities in their respective rear areas. This was also the longest and most frequent round of large-scale attacks on each other since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2016. The huge losses and casualties have cast a heavy shadow on the already gloomy situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Secondly, at the international political level, the Ukraine crisis is the largest geopolitical conflict since the end of the Cold War. It has profoundly affected the international security situation and continuously promoted in-depth adjustments to international strategic forces and patterns.
Over the past two years, the international security situation has become increasingly polarized.
This crisis has seriously intensified group confrontation and camp opposition in international politics.
Regarding the Ukraine crisis, the principle of consensus among major powers with the United Nations Security Council as its core is facing a difficult dilemma, and group confrontation is increasingly replacing institutional cooperation.
The escalation of the Ukraine crisis has caused changes in relations between major powers.
On the one hand, the relationship between Russia and Europe and the United States and Russia have broken down, and the relationship between the United States and Europe has become closer. Europe has fallen into a whirlpool of long-term geopolitical conflicts. Europe's long-term pursuit of strategic independence has encountered obvious setbacks, and its strategic dependence on the United States has deepened.
EU-Russia economic and trade cooperation has completely broken down, and political cooperation has been frozen. Confrontation has replaced cooperation as the main tone of EU-Russia relations, and isolation and isolation may continue for a long time.
On the other hand, the United States has not changed its view of China as its biggest competitor and its main strategic goal of containing China. Under the guise of "Today's Russia and Ukraine are tomorrow's Asia," the United States has strengthened its bilateral alliances in the Asia-Pacific while promoting the "trilateral security" of the United States, Britain, and Australia. Partnership" (AUKUS) was formed, bringing about a "dramatic improvement" in Japan-ROK relations, strengthening the US-Japan-ROK military alliance system, and building multiple "small courtyards and high walls" exclusive organizations such as the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF) , fueling the situation of groupization and camp confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Third, at the international security level, the Ukraine crisis has boosted the global arms race and increased the risk of high-intensity confrontation between major powers.
Stimulated by the Ukraine issue, major countries around the world have increased their military expenditures, and the degree of militarization has increased significantly.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a well-known think tank based in London, pointed out in the 2024 Military Balance Report that global defense spending has risen to US$2.2 trillion in 2023, with an average growth of 9%.
The most prominent one is the United States, whose defense budget of US$886 billion already exceeds the combined military spending of the next nine countries.
In Europe, Germany's military budget increased by 3.4%, reaching US$56.5 billion; France's military budget increased by 7.5%, reaching US$49.7 billion; Russia's military budget increased to approximately US$120 billion.
In Asia, South Korea released the "Mid-term National Defense Plan from 2024 to 2028", which plans to invest approximately US$270 billion in military expenditures in the next five years.
According to the government budget draft approved by the Japanese Cabinet meeting, Japan’s defense budget for fiscal year 2024 will be US$55.9 billion, an increase of 16.5% over fiscal year 2023, setting another record high.
Fourth, since the Ukraine crisis escalated, the United States and its allies have launched uninterrupted extreme sanctions against Russia, politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing the world economy, undermining international trade rules, increasing risks in the international debt and financial fields, and posing a threat to the international food supply. Prices and energy prices have had a huge impact, making the "obstruction" of the global supply chain more serious, causing some industrial and supply chains to break, and posing more obstacles to the world economy that is struggling to recover.
In this great geo-economic shock, the three-pole structure of the world economy has changed. The weight of the European pole has been reduced, and the European economy has suffered multiple impacts.
Affected by the backlash of EU sanctions against Russia, European energy prices have soared, inflation is high, companies have suffered huge losses, people's real wages have shrunk severely, and purchasing power has declined.
The center of gravity of the global economy is further tilted towards the Asia-Pacific.
The refusal of developing countries to follow the United States and the West in imposing sanctions on Russia also shows the increasing desire and ability of the "global South" for economic independence.
Actions against U.S. economic hegemony, including “de-dollarization”, are increasing day by day.
Data map: U.S. aid supplies to Ukraine.
It has been two years since the crisis in Ukraine broke out. War-weariness and peace-loving sentiments are fermenting around the world. Currently, there are only sporadic glimmers of peace and no obvious signs of easing the situation.
Russia and Ukraine have now gradually adapted to the war situation.
Russia has gradually shifted to a wartime system, various economic indicators have rebounded, the military industry is fully supplying the front line, and the number of follow-up troops continues to be replenished.
Although Ukraine has entered a comprehensive defense posture, the majority of the people in the country do not accept negotiations and insist on continuing to fight.
Although the United States and the West have reduced their support for Ukraine due to domestic political struggles, the Gaza conflict and other reasons, they will not stop generally due to ideological, geopolitical and other factors.
The EU recently passed 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine, and Biden is also pushing for a new aid bill to Ukraine.
The U.S. and the West will soon provide assistance to Ukraine with F-16 and other equipment.
From this point of view, the Ukraine crisis will continue in 2024.
For some time to come, this crisis may go through a long process of alternating between hot and cold, sometimes slow and sometimes rapid.
Both sides are faced with the embarrassing situation of being unable to win, negotiate, or retreat. The goal of the conflict has also become to make the opponent bleed more, suffer greater losses, consume the opponent's resources to the maximum extent, and force the opponent in a competition of will and resilience. Give in.
It remains to be seen whether the results of the US presidential election at the end of 2024 will bring about positive changes in the final ceasefire of this brutal crisis.
China is not a party to the Ukraine crisis. China has always insisted on resolving differences and disputes through dialogue and consultation through peaceful means.
China adheres to the principle of "non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting of third parties" towards Russia, and has also maintained communication with Ukraine.
China's position does not depend on the closeness of the relationship, but on the merits of the matter itself.
China has always opposed the Cold War mentality and group confrontation, and advocates proper respect for and appropriate response to the legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries.
Facts have proved that mankind is an indivisible security community. Only by adhering to a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, firmly safeguarding the international system with the United Nations at its core, and firmly safeguarding the basic norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter Only by building a balanced, effective and sustainable global and regional security architecture can this war-torn world become peaceful, prosperous and beautiful.
(The author of this article is jointly invited by China News Network and Tencent News)