China News Service, Beijing, February 22 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The European economy is in big trouble: the former "locomotive" seems to be becoming the "crane tail".

　　As the largest economy in the European Union, Germany recently lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 0.2%, which is far lower than the 1.3% predicted by the government in October 2023.

Officials admitted that due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, world trade growth at a historic low, and high interest rates inhibiting corporate investment, "our recovery from the crisis has been slower than expected."

　　The German economy has been weak for a long time.

Last year, the German economy shrank by 0.3% year-on-year. Although its economic aggregate replaced Japan as the third largest economy in the world, it was still pointed out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the worst-performing major economy.

　　France, another engine of the European economy, also recently lowered its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 1%, citing the negative impact of the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, as well as the economic growth of its major trading partner Germany and most Asian economies. Slow down.

Even if the forecast value is only 1%, French officials still believe that this is a "relatively optimistic" number.

　　Official data shows that the French economy will grow by only 0.9% year-on-year in 2023, a significant decline from 2.5% in 2022 and 6.4% in 2021.

Last year, except for France's second quarter, which grew by 0.7% from the previous quarter, the other quarters all had zero growth from the previous quarter.

　　Affected by the economic malaise of Germany and France, Europe's economic recovery is faltering.

In its latest economic forecast, the European Commission predicts that the euro zone's gross domestic product will grow by 0.8% this year and the EU will grow by 0.9%, which is lower than its forecast last autumn of 1.2% and 1.3%.

　　According to the IMF's forecast, the euro zone's economic growth will be 0.9% in 2024, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast.

　　Han Meng, an assistant researcher at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the traditional "leader" of the European economy is becoming the "tail", dragging down the overall recovery process.

In addition, there are uncertainties in the transmission strength and speed of the EU's monetary policy, as well as the outlook for inflation. High interest rates have suppressed market demand, and uncertain supply shocks can easily cause changes in European inflation factors, leading to continued economic pressure.

　　Some analysts believe that weak economic growth may lead the EU to accelerate its shift to trade and investment protectionism, which in turn will further dampen the European economy.

　　Previously, the EU had launched a countervailing investigation into China's new energy vehicles.

At the beginning of this year, the EU launched the "European Economic Security Package", which includes five major categories of methods to strengthen the EU trade toolbox, including foreign investment review and export control. It is said to be intended to strengthen protective policy barriers in sensitive areas such as high-tech and information security. .

　　Han Meng said that if the EU continues to implement its politically and security-oriented trade policy, the trade losses caused by trade frictions will put more downward pressure on the European economy, making its road to recovery even more difficult.

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