Two years after the invasion of Ukraine, EU countries are in turmoil, and Russia's neighbor Estonia is

Highlights: Two years after the invasion of Ukraine, EU countries are in turmoil, and Russia's neighbor Estonia is. Estonia has been actively providing military support to Ukraine, believing that if Ukraine loses to Russia, it will become an even greater threat to itself. Military assistance to date has amounted to 500 million euros, or approximately 80 billion yen in Japanese yen. Inflation caused the price of natural gas to soar in Europe, accelerating inflation. A company in northern Italy, near Milan, uses large amounts of gas to heat them to increase their strength.

[NHK] Almost two years have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Last week, Russian forces took control of the eastern stronghold after heavy fighting. But the maximum...

Almost two years have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Last week, Russian forces took control of the eastern stronghold after heavy fighting.

However, in the United States, the largest donor country, former President Trump, who is aiming for a comeback in the autumn presidential election, has taken a passive stance toward providing aid, further increasing uncertainty.

Under these circumstances, the EU (European Union) is becoming increasingly important. However, even in the EU, there is a lack of coordination and ``support fatigue'' is beginning to surface.

We covered the situation in EU member countries Estonia and Italy.

(Broadcast on "Good Morning Japan" on February 21st)

Estonia “We have no choice but to support Ukraine”
Italy: “Protect livelihoods rather than military aid” Inflation accelerates

EU opinion poll Support for military aid varies by country
Delays in support from the EU also pointed out
Expert: ``European countries' positions are becoming increasingly polarized''

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Estonia “We have no choice but to support Ukraine”
Italy: “Protect livelihoods rather than military aid” Inflation accelerates
EU opinion poll Support for military aid varies by country
Delays in support from the EU also pointed out
Expert: ``European countries' positions are becoming increasingly polarized''

Estonia “We have no choice but to support Ukraine”

Estonia, one of the three Baltic states bordering Russia, was annexed by the former Soviet Union for approximately 50 years after 1940, and it is said that over 75,000 people were killed or forcibly relocated.

Even after independence in 1991, there is still a strong sense of wariness towards Russia, and the Estonian intelligence agency released a report on February 13 that states that in the coming years Russia will deploy more troops near the Estonian border before the invasion begins. He pointed out the possibility of doubling the capacity.

The Estonian military has been conducting exercises with multinational forces of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) stationed in the country, and the joint exercise held on February 10th was held in the bitter cold when the enemy invaded from the southern part of the country. It was done as expected.

Commander Andrus Melillo of the Estonian Army's 1st Infantry Brigade emphasized, ``The exercise is preparation for a real war. We are trying to increase our advantage over Russia.''

Regarding Russia, citizens said, ``Until now, the question was whether Russia would attack us, but now the question is when it will attack us.'' and ``Estonia is like a buffer zone between Russia and Europe, so we don't want to attack it.'' "It's easy to accept. I'm very concerned," one person said.

Estonia has been actively providing military support to Ukraine, believing that if Ukraine loses to Russia, it will become an even greater threat to itself.

Military assistance to date has amounted to 500 million euros, or approximately 80 billion yen in Japanese yen, including grenades, anti-tank missiles, and anti-tank mines.

The ratio of GDP to gross domestic product is 1.4%, making it one of the highest countries in the European Union.

Estonia is now calling on European and American countries, including EU member states, to allocate 0.25% of their GDP to military aid to Ukraine every year.

In an interview with NHK, Defense Minister Pevkuru said of the amount of aid, ``It exceeds the total amount of military aid provided by each country in the past two years, and will greatly help bring Ukraine closer to victory. It also sends a message to the General Staff that if they can do it, we will do it too.''

"Russia is and will continue to be a threat to all NATO member states. We have no choice but to support Ukraine," he said, reiterating his appeal to all countries to step up their support.

Italy: “Protect livelihoods rather than military aid” Inflation accelerates

Russia's military invasion of Ukraine caused the price of natural gas to soar in Europe, accelerating inflation.

A company that makes bolts for car engines near Milan in northern Italy, one of Italy's leading industrial areas, uses large amounts of gas to heat them to increase their strength.

The effects of rising gas prices are said to be continuing.

President Brugola said, ``I have to say that the cost of energy and gas is more than double what it was before the invasion. All of this has been a huge blow to our company.''

Local residents also said things like, ``Ukraine is in a difficult situation, so I think it's right to provide assistance, but we also need to look at the domestic reality,'' and ``There are Italians whose lives are in poverty due to the effects of this invasion.'' There were many voices in the country saying that the budget should be used to protect the lives of Italian people rather than providing military aid to Ukraine.

According to Senator Romeo of Italy's ruling coalition, the League, there are voices within the ruling party calling for diplomatic efforts to end the war due to this public opinion.

Senator Romeo said, ``A stalemate in the war cannot be resolved militarily. People are feeling the effects of the war, not just in Europe but all over the world. There is a possibility that it can be finished quickly," he said.

EU opinion poll Support for military aid varies by country

EU opinion polls show that overall support for military aid to Ukraine tends to decline over time, and there are differences between countries.

A survey conducted in June and July 2022, when the invasion began, found that 68% of people across the EU supported military aid to Ukraine, compared to January and February last year. In a survey, it was 65%, and in a survey conducted from October to November last year, it was 60%.

Looking at the results of the survey from October to November last year by country,

91% of respondents in Sweden

, 90% in Finland, and

85% in Poland showed that northern and eastern European countries, where they feel the threat from Russia more strongly, While support is high in many countries,

it tends to be lower in countries with strong economic ties to Russia, such as

31% in Bulgaria and Cyprus and 37% in Greece.

Of these, in Italy, which also holds the G7 Presidency this year, the number of people who answered "I support" decreased from 57% to 51% compared to June and July last year, but the number of people who answered "I do not support" decreased from 57% to 51%. The number of respondents has increased from 37% to 44%, and the gap is narrowing.

Delays in support from the EU also pointed out

Up until now, each member state of the European Union (EU) has provided military support to Ukraine, including tanks, air defense systems, grenades, and artillery shells.

Since the beginning of the invasion, the EU has been supporting member states by paying part of the cost of sending weapons to Ukraine.

According to the EU, the total amount of military aid provided by member states and the EU was 28 billion euros as of the end of January this year, or 4.5 trillion yen in Japanese yen.

On the other hand, the EU has set a goal of providing 1 million shells to Ukraine by March this year, but it is expected that only about half, about 520,000 shells, will be delivered by March, and delays in aid are likely. It has been pointed out.

In addition, negotiations are continuing with the aim of increasing the EU fund to support the provision of weapons to member countries by 5 billion euros or 800 billion yen, but an agreement has not been reached due to opposition from some countries. .

Under these circumstances, France, Germany, and other countries have announced their intention to continue supporting Ukraine, including announcing additional military assistance one after another in February.

Expert: ``European countries' positions are becoming increasingly polarized''

Brockmans, a senior researcher at the Center for European Policy Research, a Belgian think tank where the EU is headquartered, said of the debate between EU member states over military aid to Ukraine, ``Basically things progressed quickly in the beginning, but the war will continue for quite some time.'' Negotiations are taking longer and more money is needed.After two years of constant headlines about Ukraine, people are starting to turn their attention to domestic issues. "There is a sense of support fatigue among member countries," he said.

``Countries that are tired of war and do not want to bear any more financial burden will likely take conciliatory moves toward Russia, taking into account the possibility of Trump's return to power in the United States.'' "I think they will be more positive about negotiating a cease-fire agreement and even a peace agreement. On the other hand, some countries feel that such a move threatens their own existence," he said.This year, the positions of European countries are changing. He pointed out that there is a growing tendency for differentiation.

Regarding future discussions in the EU, Brockmans said, ``The three Baltic states have repeatedly voiced the threat posed by Russia, and it has been accepted as a valid argument immediately after the invasion, but from now on, fatigue towards these countries will be felt in other European countries. "There is a possibility that there is a risk that countries such as the Baltic States will be sidelined in future discussions."

``2024 will be a difficult year for Ukraine, and it will also be a difficult year for Europe to muster the political will to secure the necessary budget for military aid.'' He predicted that this would be a critical moment in the EU's continued military support.