The fall of Avdiivka...a path opens for the Russians and a narrow time for Ukraine

Ukrainian analysts believe that the Russian advance after taking control of the city of Avdiivka will not be easy (Reuters)

Kiev

- The fall of the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Province, eastern Ukraine, at the hands of the Russians was not similar to the fall of the city of Bakhmut, which occupied the world months ago. The recent battles were more like flexing muscles and breaking bones, as it turned out, and its fall in the end did not affect the course of the war.

The situation is completely different with Avdiivka, as its fall is considered the biggest achievement achieved by the Russians since mid-2022, especially since it opens a path for them towards major residential blocs in the district, almost half of which are under their control, and makes it difficult for the Ukrainians to protect the other half. It also enhances the Russians’ hopes of regaining control over parts of the city. From neighboring Kharkiv province.

Indeed, signs of the matter appeared hours after the fall of Avdiivka, with violent bombardment launched by the Russians on the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the far north of Donetsk Province, close to the borders of Kharkiv Province, to which they approached - in practice - about 30 kilometers.

This is because the city of Avdiivka is located on the international road “H20” leading north to those cities, which was under Ukrainian control a few days ago, and it is a road that also connects to the cities of Izyum in the southeast of Kharkiv Province, and Kubyansk in its far east, where the Russians are mobilizing. Large numbers of troops.

A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar shell towards the Russians on the front line in the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka (Reuters)

Russian priority towards the north

Military analyst, Denis Popovich, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that “the Russians’ priority is to move north after Avdiivka, because their eyes are on Kramatorsk, the most important city under Ukrainian control in Donetsk, and on the international line and the railway line that connects Russia’s territory to all the hot battle fronts.”

Popovich believes that "this strengthens the Russians' hopes of achieving the goal of controlling the entire Donetsk province, and retrying to control Kharkiv as well."

To achieve these hopes, geography favors the Russians. Avdiivka, which is described as the gateway to protecting the city of Donetsk under their control (the capital of the province that bears its name), is located at the foot of a high hill, and this enhances the possibility of preserving their new positions there and targeting others.

This geography, which helped the Ukrainians to remain steadfast inside the city for 4 months, even though they were surrounded from 3 directions, has today become a reason that will make it difficult for the Ukrainians to regain the city in the near future, according to military analyst, Roman Cvetan.

Lack of ammunition and poor supply

The lack of ammunition was the main reason that prompted the Ukrainians to withdraw from Avdiivka, despite its importance, but today they face other problems on the way to protecting the rest of the province’s cities.

Oleg Zhdanov, a military expert and colonel in the reserve forces, believes that “time is running out for Ukraine. The problem of the lack of ammunition may continue until the end of spring, because it depends to a large extent on faltering American aid. Also, after the loss of Avdiivka, Ukraine will face difficulty in transferring supplies to the rest of the fronts.”

Before all of this, the fact remains the large numerical difference between the forces of the two sides. The number of Russian soldiers is 7 times the number of Ukrainian soldiers, and they enjoy aviation advantages and firepower, which Ukraine does not possess, according to Zhdanov.

Ukrainian soldiers were able to hold on inside the city of Avdiivka for 4 months before it fell into the hands of the Russians (Anatolia Agency)

The Russian advance is not easy

But other Ukrainians look with some positivity at the prospect of defending the rest of Donetsk after the fall of Avdiivka, and they consider that progress after that will not be easy for the Russians.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a political-military analyst in the “Media Resistance” group, tells Al Jazeera Net, “Regardless of the difficulties, we must not forget that we have been defending in those areas since 2014, and since the beginning of the war the Russians have not been able to achieve significant progress as they achieved in other northern and southern provinces.” .

He stressed that "every kilometer of advance in Donetsk costs the Russians thousands of soldiers. Regardless of the difference in numbers and strength, let us not forget that they lost about 48 thousand regular soldiers there, and other villages and cities will not welcome them."

In this context, he pointed out that the closest important cities to Avdiivka are Konstantievka, which is 30 kilometers to the north (on the H20 road leading to Kramatorsk), or Pokrovsk, which is 40 kilometers to the west (on the M04 international road).”

According to Kovalenko, “The advance of the Russians is something we realize will be inevitable, but they need a period of rest, recalculation, and regrouping before moving forward, and this currently coincides with their official and media celebrations of achieving control over Avdiivka.”

Source: Al Jazeera