Artistic illustration of the European Remote Sensing Satellite ERS-2 in space (British press)

The European Space Agency announced that a satellite weighing about 2,294 kilograms will collide with the Earth tomorrow, Wednesday, about 29 years after it was launched into space and declared out of service in 2011.

It is possible that the ERS-2 satellite will reach Earth within 15 hours before or after the expected date of its fall, as the space agency cannot accurately predict the time and place of its entry into the Earth’s atmosphere, according to what the British newspaper “Daily Mail” reported yesterday. Monday.

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A large satellite will fall to Earth next week

A large satellite is expected to fall to Earth on Wednesday, February 21, 2024 AD. It is a European satellite called (ERS-2), which was launched on April 21, 1995, and was used for remote sensing purposes. It remained operational until July 4, 2011, when it ended. Its lifespan... pic.twitter.com/OqTVEJM9Fr

- International Astronomy Center (@AstronomyCenter) February 17, 2024

— Update 11:00 CET, 20 February —

ESA's Space Debris Office currently predicts that the #ERS2reentry will take place at:

19:24 UTC (20:24 CET) on 21 February 2024


(+/- 9.91 hours) pic.twitter.com/i7Iu1BFacx

— ESA Operations (@esaoperations) February 20, 2024

During a press conference held on February 13, the European Space Agency estimated that “the largest part of the satellite that could reach the Earth’s surface is 115 pounds (52 kilograms).”

According to the agency, “The odds of a piece of satellite falling on someone’s head are estimated at one in a billion. When taking into account that 71% of the Earth’s surface is water, it is likely that the satellite will make a large splash somewhere.”

When the satellite enters the Earth's atmosphere, the intense heat resulting from friction disintegrates it and burns large parts of it, and usually 20 to 40% of the initial mass reaches the Earth, but due to the moon's relatively large size, there remains a chance to cause damage as a result of a collision. What remains of its wreckage.

According to the space agency, most of the ERS-2 satellite will burn up upon its return to Earth's atmosphere, with some remaining fragments likely falling into the ocean, and none of the fragments will contain any toxic or radioactive materials.

ERS-2 spotted! 📸🛰️

The ESA satellite is on a tumbling descent that will lead to its atmospheric reentry and break up this week.

These images of ERS-2 were captured by @heospace for @spacegovuk using cameras on board other satellites.#ERS2reentry pic.twitter.com/GTuubP6apJ

— ESA Operations (@esaoperations) February 19, 2024

The European satellite... a 30-year story

On April 21, 1995, the European satellite “ERS-2” was launched from the French province of Guiana. It weighed about 5,057 pounds (2,294 kilograms), and its mission was to collect data on the land and oceans.

#CallForMedia: Journalists are invited to register to attend media events at Europe's Spaceport at Kourou, French Guiana, for the first flight of Europe's new rocket #Ariane6 👇


🔗 https://t.co/ZphTt67hhG pic.twitter.com/v9YtH4VLVA

— ESA (@esa) February 19, 2024

Fifteen years after its launch, the European Space Agency announced the completion of the mission and officially announced its death in 2011, saying that its batteries had run out and the communication antenna and electronics on board had been turned off, meaning that there was no way to effectively control the movement of the satellite from Earth during its descent.

At that time, experts wanted to reduce the risk of colliding with other satellites or increasing the cloud of "space junk" currently present around Earth, and ground control experts began lowering its height from about 487 miles (785 km) to 356 miles (573 km).

Satellites...an inevitable fate

On October 16, 2017, Gulf residents watched a satellite fall to Earth, and this was also repeated one week later when a Russian satellite fell about 38 years after its launch.

The Russian satellite was launched on July 31, 1979. It was used by the Soviet Union for communications purposes. During its operation, it revolved around the Earth in a highly elliptical orbit once every 12 hours. During its orbit, its distance from the Earth varied from 550 kilometers to 40,000 kilometers, and its mass reached 1,600. One kilogram, its length is 3.4 meters and its diameter is 1.6 meters.

According to experts, all satellites orbiting the Earth in low orbits (less than a thousand kilometers) end up falling towards the Earth due to their constant friction with the atmosphere.

It is scientifically known that about 70% of the fall of effective satellites is uncontrolled, that is, they fall at an unspecified time and place, while only 30% of the fall of satellites is controlled, and this only occurs for large satellites or those loaded with dangerous materials. .

In 2014, the International Astronomy Center established an international program in which those interested from various countries of the world participate in monitoring the fall of satellites on Earth. The international program is supervised by 4 experts: an expert in tracking satellites, especially those falling on Earth, an expert in following satellites and determining their orbits, and a specialist in predicting dates. Satellites fall, in addition to the center director.

The United States is the first country in the world to own satellites in space, with a rate of 3,415 satellites, followed by China in second place with 535 satellites, then the United Kingdom with 486 satellites, then multinational cooperation comes in fourth place.

The missions of satellites are summarized in espionage, television services, communications, navigation, accurate weather forecasting, Earth observation, and scientific research and war missions, as some governments are working to develop satellites that carry intercontinental missiles.

Commercial businesses account for a 74% share of satellite launches into space, with 4,047 satellites.

Space pollution...a phenomenon that began 7 decades ago

In April 2023, Roscosmos Director General Yuri Borisov announced that there are currently more than 7,500 active satellites, and by 2025, the number of satellites in Earth's orbit may increase to 70,000, making the problem of space debris even more significant. Urgently.

The phenomenon of space pollution began with the launch of the first Soviet satellite "Sputnik" in 1957. The collision of satellites with each other and their explosion is one of the most important causes of space pollution.

Scientists point to two events that greatly exacerbated the problem of space waste. The first was in February 2009, when a communications satellite from the Iridium company collided with the Russian military satellite "Cosmos 2251", by mistake, which led to the separation of more than two thousand objects. Metallic than them, these objects took random orbits around the Earth.

As for the second incident, it was in January 2007, when China tested an anti-satellite weapon on an old weather satellite called “Fengyun.” The experiment left more than two thousand fragments in space.

There are also two sites that have become alarmingly crowded, one of which is low Earth orbit used by satellites, the International Space Station, Chinese manned missions and the Hubble Telescope, among others.

The other is in geostationary orbit, used by communications, weather and observation satellites that must maintain a fixed position relative to the geostation.

The US Space and Aviation Agency says it monitors the orbits of 20,000 large fragments, ranging in size from an apple to a bus, to avoid them colliding with operating satellites.

This agency counts the presence of more than 500,000 fragments with a diameter exceeding one centimeter, in addition to millions of other small pieces orbiting the Earth at a high speed of up to 27,000 kilometers per hour, and their orbits cannot be tracked.

Source: Al Jazeera + British press