A camp for displaced Palestinians near the border fence between Gaza and Egypt (French)
David Hirst, editor-in-chief of the British Middle East Eye website, believes that the Israeli war government's insistence on occupying Rafah, where 1.4 million Palestinians who were forcibly expelled from northern and central Gaza are seeking refuge, hides growing doubts about what they will achieve when they get there.
Hirst pointed out that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not the only one who insists, "We will do it. We will control the remaining Hamas terrorist brigades in Rafah." There is also opposition leader Benny Gantz who pushes for this, saying, “To those who say the price is too high, I say clearly that Hamas has one choice. They can surrender, release the hostages, and the people of Gaza can celebrate Ramadan.”
Hirst commented that this was just showing off for local consumption, noting that it took the Israeli army 4 months to make its way to a plot of land 41 kilometers long and 12 kilometers wide.
In contrast, it took more than 5 weeks before the US-led coalition was able to capture Baghdad in 2003. Israel used the same amount of ammunition in 4 months as the United States used in 7 years in Iraq.
They are not superpowers
The writer added that it was clear that something had gone wrong. It is that either the Israeli soldiers are not the superpowers they thought, or the resistance of Hamas and other fighters was unexpectedly intense. But one thing is certain: the Israeli forces did not fight very easily.
Hirst pointed out that the aerial and artillery bombardment and march raids were intended to terrorize civilians and create conditions for a mass exodus. He said that mass human casualties and attacks on vital infrastructure are war aims, not collateral damage, which is what the International Court of Justice clearly recognized when it imposed an order on Israel to comply with the Genocide Convention.
However, the writer believes that this Israeli bravado hides darker glimpses of the ground campaign, noting that Israeli military intelligence believes that Hamas will remain an armed group capable of launching operations against it, and says that “real support” for Hamas remains high among Palestinians in Gaza.
Israeli journalist Ilana Dayan of Channel 12 reported that these conclusions were presented by senior army officers, Shin Bet officials, and members of the National Security Council to political leaders a week ago. She believed that "in this regard, at least, there will be no absolute victory."
Camps for displaced Gazans in the coastal area of Al-Mawasi, northwest of Palestinian Rafah (Al-Jazeera)
Religious war
Hirst commented on Dayan's speech that many outside Israel had reached this conclusion 4 months ago. He stated that there are other equally urgent questions for the Israeli high command: Do they have the forces necessary to launch a major operation in Rafah and reoccupy the Philadelphia axis, without having to call in more reserve soldiers?
He said that reoccupying the Philadelphia axis - the buffer zone along the border between Egypt and Gaza - would be a violation of the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979. There is another factor affecting the imminent ground invasion of Rafah, which is Washington, which has the power to stop or restrict the flow of weapons to Israel. However, President Joe Biden has not applied this pressure yet.
Hirst mentioned what Israeli historian Benny Morris told the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine about his intense hatred for Netanyahu. He said, “He is a fraud. But he is right that the war must continue until Hamas is crushed, because we have declared throughout the region that we will crush it, and we will be seen as a disgrace.” We will lose if we do not complete the mission."
Hirst responded to Morris that Israel “will never finish the job, and it has only two options: either to follow the example of Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in their quest to turn the war on the land into a religious war, or to sit down with a leadership that the Palestinians enjoy freedom of choice to discuss how to share the land on foot.” equality".
Source: Middle East Eye