The unsurprising and without real opposition re-election of Ilham Aliev as head of Azerbaijan on February 7 was the scene behind the scenes of a discreet new illustration of the deterioration of Franco-Azerbaijani relations.

For the first time, at least in the last decade, no French elected official or independent observer participated in the contingent of international observers to guarantee the sincerity of the vote. In a context of tightening of Ilham Aliev's mandate, it is clear that fewer representatives from Western European countries are present to monitor the smooth running of the vote. But German, Austrian, Spanish and even Italian elected officials still made the trip. 

Escalation of tensions

The absence of a French presence results from a common disagreement between France and Azerbaijan. The French parliamentarians who, as electoral observers, were able to visit the former Soviet republic in the past no longer want to hear about it. “When we have a president who is systematically elected with more than 80% of the votes, I do not call that free elections,” explains Claude Kern, senator from Bas-Rhin who was part of the French delegation for the presidential election of 2018.

Even the Association of Friends of Azerbaijan in the National Assembly has experienced an exodus of almost all of its members in recent months. 

But Azerbaijan also seems to have closed the door to the rare French people wishing to observe the presidential election on site. This is the case of Jean-Michel Brun, who feeds the Muslim sites of France and the Gazette du Caucasus, two portals with a pro-Azeri tone. His candidacy was rejected by the Azerbaijani authorities, without explanation, a few days before the election. According to him, “relations with Azerbaijan are so rotten at the moment that they have perhaps decided not to invite French people”. Contacted by France 24 and Forbidden Stories, the Azerbaijani authorities did not respond on the reasons for this absence of French people. 

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Because this episode concerning electoral observers is part of a broader context of tensions. The month of December was notably marked by a sharp escalation: a Frenchman accused of espionage was arrested in Baku, two diplomats were expelled from Azerbaijan, and Paris in return declared two Azerbaijani representatives personae non grata. All accompanied by harsh statements from both sides.

On site, “the French authorities made us understand that we had to be careful because we could be expelled overnight,” confides a French person living in Azerbaijan. Aside from these tensions, he claims to be rather satisfied with the living conditions in the country. Contacted on this subject, the French embassy did not respond.

With the diplomatic conflict between it and France, Azerbaijan “has reached an unprecedented threshold of bad relations with a Western country”, maintains Altay Goyushov, political scientist at the Baku Research Institute, an independent Azerbaijani research center. Accusations of espionage are, for example, “procedures that those in power reserve for their opponents, but rarely for foreign nationals, especially if they come from a European country,” he adds.

Anti-Macron song

Historically, it has not always been this way. France, like other European countries, has long been the target of what is called “caviar diplomacy”. Various and varied gifts, trips to Azerbaijan with all expenses included, help with the renovation of buildings such as churches... The Azerbaijani government thus sought to secure relays of influence within the political-media world. 

In addition, France has always occupied a special place in the eyes of Baku. Since the beginning of the 2000s, Paris has indeed tried to play a central role alongside the United States and Russia - within the Minsk group - to find a diplomatic solution to the territorial conflict around the separatist Upper East region. Karabakh, disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

It is therefore not surprising that Azerbaijan sought to get closer to the French. Especially since the power in place in Baku has always had the feeling that the Armenian community in France weighed in on the public debate, as all the pro-Azerbaijani interlocutors interviewed by France 24 and the Forbidden Stories consortium were able to affirm.

The war of September 2020, which resulted in the reconquest of a third of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, marked the beginning of a rupture. Two years later, French President Emmanuel Macron declared, during an interview on France 2: “we will never let go of the Armenians”. It's a cold shower for Baku. “It was very frustrating for Ilham Aliev who wants to be able to impose his demands on an Armenia in a weak position, which is not the case if Yerevan thinks it can count on French support,” notes Altay Goyushov. 

This French support, moreover, began to take shape in October 2023 when the French Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna affirmed that “France has given its agreement to the conclusion of future contracts forged with Armenia which will allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia so that it can ensure its defense”. To the great displeasure of Ilham Aliev who accused France of “preparing the ground [for] new wars”. 

A sequence which pushed Azerbaijan to make a diplomatic turn which will increasingly resemble a 180 degree turn. The tone is first set by a song performed on the public television channel and soberly titled “Emmanuel”. Broadcast a week after the interview given by Emmanuel Macron to France 2, it lists the criticisms against the French president, accusing him of “betraying his promises”, while children punctuate each verse by singing “Emmanuel” in chorus.

This bravado is emblematic of the new Azerbaijani strategy towards France. There is the tip of the iceberg, consisting essentially of the declarations of Ilham Aliev and his entourage who accuse France in particular “of undermining the peace efforts [with Armenia, Editor's note]”, according to Elchin Amirbayov, the representative of the Azerbaijani president for the normalization of relations with Armenia. And the submerged part, which includes several initiatives aimed at denigrating France. 

Against “French colonialism”

This is how a very critical video on the organization of the Olympic Games in France caused a media wave last November. For Viginum, the French government agency for defense against foreign digital interference, this is an influence campaign linked to “an actor close to Azerbaijan”. 

In its technical report, which France 24 and Forbidden Stories were able to consult, this organization concludes that the operation, amplified by fake sites and accounts on social networks, is “likely to harm the fundamental interests of the nation”.

At the same time, Azerbaijan is promoting in all directions the demands of a new structure called the “Baku Initiative Group”. Its members, separatists from French territories and regions - such as Guyana, Martinique, New Caledonia and Guadeloupe - have not missed an opportunity, for more than six months, to denounce the “colonialist policy” of France from 21st century.

“During the last Conference of the movement of non-aligned countries [chaired at the time by Azerbaijan, Editor's note] in July 2023 in Baku, we wanted to take stock of the situation of the territories still under French domination and we decided to form the Baku Initiative Group,” summarizes Jean-Jacob Bicep, president of the Popular Union for the Liberation of Guadeloupe. “The goal is to make France's colonial policy known to the world,” adds another representative who preferred to remain anonymous.

These separatists have already been able to deliver their speeches against what they call “French colonialism” before the UN on two occasions, first in September at the New York headquarters of the international organization, then at the Geneva office in December . All under the Baku Initiative Group.

What does this have to do with Azerbaijan? It is not just due to the chance of an Azerbaijani presidency of the non-aligned group at the right time. Thus, the executive director of this gathering of separatists is the Azerbaijani Abbas Abbassov, who worked for a long time for the National Oil Fund of Azerbaijan.  

In addition, the Conference at the end of which the project to create this group was approved was organized by the Air Center, one of the main think tanks in Azerbaijan, whose president, Farid Shafiyev, is the former ambassador of Azerbaijan to the Czech Republic. Contacted, the think tank did not respond to questions from France 24 and Forbidden Stories.

Support for Corsicans and Kanaks

Among the French who attended meetings of this group, there are also well-known figures from the pro-Azerbaijani camp, such as journalist Yannick Urrien. “It was Hikmet Hajiyev who asked me to come to a group conference in Baku in October 2023,” explains this manager of the local magazine La Baule+. Hikmet Hajiyev is not just anyone: responsible for external relations of the Azerbaijan presidency, he is close to Ilham Aliev. “He is the main organizer of the denigration campaigns against other countries including France,” assures Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for Prospective and Security in Europe and former advisor to Azerbaijan over a period of approximately six years.

Ilham Aliev himself even gave a speech with strong anti-colonial overtones during which he referred to France more than 20 times, during a conference organized by this same group in November in Baku. 

Some members of the Baku Initiative Group deny being used or prefer to ignore the issue. "These are not my things. We are seizing every opportunity that presents itself to achieve our objective and France only has to resolve its own problems with Azerbaijan,” retorts Jean-Jacob Bicep. Another participant, who prefers to remain anonymous, recognizes that the creation of this group came at the best possible time for Azerbaijan which “does not really have any chemistry with France at the moment”. Probably a way of asking the French government “to sweep its own door before criticizing what others are doing [in Nagorno-Karabakh, Editor’s note]”, adds the latter. 

And Azerbaijan has been able to be creative in increasing the resonance of these independence demands. On Twitter, they are relayed by anonymous Azerbaijanis and more influential figures, such as the director of the Air Center, Farid Shafiyev.

Since last October, the Azerbaijani parliament has even hosted a group supporting the Corsican people, which published a press release at the beginning of February to denounce "the Macronist dictatorship".

Azerbaijan was also accused, in December, of having sent journalists “known for their proximity to the Azerbaijani intelligence services” to follow the trip to New Caledonia of the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu. Their objective: “to write articles with an anti-France angle”, assures Europe 1, which revealed the affair.

Like the Russians

The creation of the Baku Initiative Group and the media hype around the question of anti-colonialism are “a monumental error”, affirms Emmanuel Dupuy. For this former advisor to Azerbaijan, this strategy would have “no chance” of making France move one iota on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, while scuttling relations between the two countries. An opinion that he does not hesitate to share with his relations in Azerbaijan.

However, it is not surprising that Baku would resort to this type of tactic, says Altay Goyushov of the Baku Research Institute. Disinformation operations on the Internet and criticism against a French “colonial policy”? Hello, the Kremlin? Russian troll factories have become symbols of disinformation on the Internet and Moscow has more than once started the refrain of the fight against French neocolonialism to gain influence on the African continent to the detriment of France. This copy and paste of Russian methods is due to the fact that “the individuals in power in Baku still have their eyes turned towards the East when it comes to imitating this type of campaigns worthy of the KGB”, underlines the political scientist.

But Altay Goyushov does not foresee the success of this Azerbaijani offensive. Firstly because the country does not have the same means as Russia to deploy very large-scale operations, such as for example the Russian Doppelgänger disinformation campaign which has made it possible to spread false information in several European countries since 2022 before go do the same in South America.

Read alsoInvestigation: Russia-Africa, networks of influence

Then, because Azerbaijan “is much more economically dependent on Western countries than Russia,” notes Altay Goyushov. According to him, Ilham Aliev cannot afford the luxury of getting permanently angry with a power like France.

“It’s quite similar to what happened in 2013 with Germany,” recalls this expert. At the time, Germany took the liberty of criticizing attacks on religious freedom in Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim country. It was shortly before a presidential election, “there were many attacks against Germany for about two years”, underlines Altay Goyushov. 

Then, nothing more. The reason, according to Altay Goyushov, is that these smear campaigns mainly serve internal political purposes. “In an authoritarian regime, you sometimes have to find a common enemy who allows the country to unite around the leader,” he explains. COP29, organized by Azerbaijan, will perhaps be an opportunity for the authorities to redress the diplomatic bar with the West and in particular France. 

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