China News Service, February 19 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun and Zhang Aolin) "Because of the inaction of the (U.S.) Congress, supplies have continued to decrease... Russia has achieved significant results for the first time in several months." Recently, the President of the United States announced at the White House This statement appeared in the content of Biden’s phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
The Russian army recently seized control of Avdeyevka, a key town in the Donetsk region, and the Ukrainian army announced its withdrawal. Faced with this situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front, US President Biden could not sit still and pointed the finger directly at his own Congress. Why is this?
It all starts with a multi-billion-dollar foreign military aid bill.
The huge aid bill to Ukraine is stuck, and Biden is anxious
On the 13th local time, the U.S. Senate passed a military aid bill involving Ukraine and Israel, totaling US$95.3 billion, including US$60 billion in aid to Ukraine. However, the bill is stuck in the House of Representatives because House Speaker Mike Johnson, on behalf of his Republican Party, put forward conditions, requiring the Biden administration to spend money to solve the illegal immigration problem at the US-Mexico border, otherwise it wants to use the money to aid Ukraine - "No way."
Data map: U.S. aid supplies to Ukraine.
Not only did Johnson pay lip service, he also continued to "amplify his tactics" by canceling the planned vote on the Ukraine aid bill and announcing a two-week recess for the House of Representatives.
Just as the bill was stalled, over there, the Russian army announced that it had captured Avdeyevka and pushed the forward sharply westward.
The President and Vice President of the United States cannot sit still. Biden said that the delay in passing the aid bill to Ukraine may "damage the reputation of the United States." It is "outrageous" that the House of Representatives adjourned the session at this juncture. He reminded members of Congress that if assistance is not provided as soon as possible, other cities in Ukraine may also be controlled by Russian troops. US Vice President Harris also strongly criticized Republicans in the US Congress, even calling on them to "not play political games."
Expert: The defeat of the Ukrainian army highlights the "weakness" of US and Western military aid
Regarding the reaction of Biden and others, Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to China News Service that, in fact, the current Ukrainian crisis is not only a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but also a conflict between Russia, the West, and The security and geopolitical game between NATO. In the past two years, the West has provided nearly 100 billion US dollars in military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Without Western military assistance, Ukraine may not even be able to survive for a month.
He noticed that starting in December 2023, the United States began to suspend and cut off its aid to Ukraine, and the EU was unable to match it, which led to a significant decline in the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army.
Data shows that the Ukrainian army's average daily artillery shell consumption has dropped significantly from the initial 20,000 to 30,000 shells. Recently, there is news that its daily average artillery shell consumption has dropped to less than 2,000. Zhang Hong pointed out that this number of artillery shells is obviously not enough to be used on the Russian-Ukrainian front line of more than 1,000 kilometers long, which is enough to show that the Ukrainian army is almost facing the dilemma of "running out of ammunition."
He further said that insufficient military aid was one of the most important reasons for the Ukrainian army's defeat in Avdeyevka, which highlighted the weakness of the United States and the West on the issue of aid to Ukraine.
Still "confident" that aid will arrive "even though it is late"?
Although he blamed political opponents in the U.S. Congress for the failure to pass the bill in time, Biden still expressed comfort to Ukraine. He said he "spoke with Zelensky and let him know that I was confident that we would get the money (aid to Ukraine)."
Data map: US President Biden.
Zhang Hong also pointed out that in fact, the West cannot give up on Ukraine strategically. At least economically speaking, Ukraine will not collapse now. In addition to the United States, the European Union is still insisting on providing assistance.
He pointed out that although the United States is currently in fierce partisanship due to the 2024 presidential election, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Johnson used the method of adjourning Congress to delay the bill of Democratic Party Biden and others, but the adjournment still has a time limit, and it cannot be adjourned indefinitely. In the end, it was difficult for the Republicans to block the passage of the aid bill.
Therefore, he judged that U.S. aid to Ukraine may be "late but arriving" and the bill will still be approved. At present, the overall pace of Western aid to Ukraine will slow down and the funding for aid to Ukraine will shrink, but it is impossible to completely cut off the flow.
Coach change, asking for help: Zelensky is also very busy
Faced with the recent decline of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, Zelensky is also very busy. On February 9, Zelenskiy successively replaced the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Chief of General Staff, carrying out a "major change" in the Ukrainian army's command center.
In this regard, Zhang Hong believes that, first, the main reason for Zelensky's change of generals is that there are differences in combat concepts and ideas between him and the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhny, which led to problems in cooperation.
Second, this is a choice Zelensky made out of political considerations.
Zhang Hong said that Zaluzhne not only commented on the Uzbek army’s frontline operations, but also spoke out on Uzbekistan’s domestic recruitment policy, national defense and anti-corruption, etc. These political thoughts and actions of Zaluzhny made Zelensky regard him as a potential competitor. Therefore, removing his faction from the national defense war system is also to maintain Zelensky's own authority to a certain extent.
Third, change your thinking by changing the future.
As the stalemate between Russia and Ukraine continues and Ukraine faces a passive situation, the change of generals also reflects Ukraine's desire to restart combat operations against Russia. Zhang Hong believes that this is a risky idea and an attempt.
Zhang Hong pointed out that in fact, with the shrinking of Western aid and the unequal strength with Russia, neither the newly launched Serski nor the original Zaluzhny could completely reverse the situation.
In addition to internal changes, Zelensky continues to seek foreign aid. He has repeatedly negotiated with the United States, France, Germany, etc. on the issue of aid to Ukraine. He also recently warned at the Munich Security Conference that the insufficient supply of ammunition to Ukraine will be conducive to Russia's offensive.
Regarding Zelensky’s multiple requests for help, Zhang Hong pointed out that as Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief Sersky announced, Ukraine will conduct a comprehensive defense in 2024. To put it bluntly, it means “defending”, but there is an increasing lack of The strength to launch a counterattack again.
Seeing that the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis is getting closer and closer, although the battlefield situation is gradually favorable to the Russian army, when talking about whether the two sides may return to the negotiating table in the near future, Zhang Hong expressed that he is not optimistic about this.
He believes that the diplomatic and military confrontation and confrontation between Russia and the West will become protracted, and there is very little room for improvement in relations, and it will be difficult to have real peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
This "Cold War"-like state will gradually "cut" the global landscape. If the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict cannot be controlled in the short term, the world may become more chaotic and divided, Zhang Hong concluded. (over)