China News Service, February 18. According to Taiwan's "United Daily News", the latest research from Taiwan's National Chung Hsing University and Utah State University in the United States predicts that under climate change, the severity of Taiwan's forest fire weather will increase significantly in the future, especially in the During the dry season from November to April, the peak forest fire season will arrive earlier due to changes in precipitation characteristics and rising temperatures. Scholars said the study highlighted the importance of integrating climate change predictions into forest fire risk management and called on Taiwan authorities to re-evaluate current forest fire management strategies.
Data map. Picture from Taiwan's "Forestry Department Taichung Branch"
Taiwan has experienced several forest fires in Alishan and Yushan in recent years, and the value of the burned trees is difficult to calculate. According to statistics from Taiwan's "Forestry and Nature Conservation Service", the number of forest fires on public forest land in 2021 was as high as 93, and the forest area damaged was 94.6 hectares, both hitting record highs. Although the number of forest fires dropped to 21 in the coming year, as of November last year, The number of forest fires increased again, reaching a total of 51.
According to reports, Liu Wanyu, a distinguished professor at the Department of Forestry at National Chung Hsing University in Taiwan, Wang Shiyu, a professor at Utah State University in the United States, and Yu Shunwen, a doctoral student at Taiwan National Chung Hsing University, analyzed future forest fire risks under different climate scenarios and found that forest fire risks in Taiwan show an increasing quantitative trend. , the research was published in the international journal "Climatic Change".
According to the study, compared with the baseline of the average number of forest fires in recent years (1992 to 2021), under the most severe circumstances of climate change, the number of forest fires in Taiwan at the end of the 21st century will increase by 35.6%. On the other hand, if the climate Under the least severe change scenario, the number of forest fires is expected to decrease by about 12.2%, indicating that reducing global warming will help mitigate the potential increase in forest fires.
Liu Wanyu said that climate change will increase the temperature and reduce the humidity, causing the litter and soil organic matter under the forest to dry out and reduce the water content, which means an increase in flammable materials, leading to a greater chance of wildfires. The study also found that Taiwan's historical temperature and wind speed showed a significant upward trend, which was accompanied by an increase in rainfall and humidity variability, resulting in a significant increase in forest fire risk. It is worth noting that forest fires in Taiwan are more affected by dryness than extreme heat.
Liu Wanyu emphasized that Taiwan's forests are indeed facing a climate crisis. Drought will become the norm in the future. When the dry season is longer, the soil will be drier and the trees will be more likely to be ignited.
Wang Shiyu said that integrating the latest climate predictions into forest fire risk management can help Taiwan develop more effective strategies to mitigate the impact of forest fires.