China News Service, February 19 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun and Zhang Olin) On February 17, local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian army has completely controlled Avdeyevka, an important town in the Donetsk region, and has moved the Russian frontline Great advance to the west. International public opinion believes that the Russian army’s occupation of Avdeyevka is as important as the Battle of Bakhmut (called Artemovsk in Russia) in May 2023.

　　It has been almost two years since the crisis in Ukraine broke out. The Ukrainian army's counterattacks have been repeatedly frustrated. Now control of Avdeyevka has changed hands. Do a series of changes mark the coming of a turning point in the situation in Russia and Ukraine? Putin congratulated the Russian army on its "major victory". What signal does it send to the outside world? Next, what other key battles on the Russian-Ukrainian frontline are worthy of note?

　　In this regard, China News Network specially invited Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to provide an in-depth interpretation.

Another "strong fortress" was breached

　　Earlier news from the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that in the past few weeks, the Russian army continued to advance towards Avdeyevka. Although the Ukrainian army tried to hold on, the Ukrainian army "fleeed" under the threat of the Russian army cutting off supplies and retreat. Only 24 hours after the "rout" occurred, Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Serski issued a withdrawal order.

　　According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, since 2014, the Ukrainian army has been consolidating Avdeyevka's strategic position and investing a lot of resources and energy in the area to turn this population center into a "strong fortress."

　　Through this battle, the Russian army controlled about 32 square kilometers of land and pushed its troops forward significantly, keeping the line of fire away from the local central city of Donetsk, thereby ensuring that it was protected from attacks by the Ukrainian army.

　　Zhang Hong said that Avdeyevka was previously one of the few areas in Donetsk still controlled by the Ukrainian army. It was an important military fortress built by the Ukrainian army for a long time. "It was like a 'wedge' inserted into Donetsk." The city of Donetsk, the capital of the Croatian region, is of vital military significance to the surrounding areas and the entire Donbas region."

File photo: Russian President Putin.

Putin spoke highly of it, which means a lot

　　After listening to the report on the Russian army's control of Avdeyevka, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Russian army on its success and commented that "this is an important victory."

　　What kind of signal does Putin’s statement send? Zhang Hong pointed out that this victory relieved the multiple pressures on Russia to a certain extent:

　　The first level is safety pressure.

　　First of all, the battle between Russia and Ukraine in Avdeyevka, an important town in the Donetsk region, lasted for one year and nine months. The capture of this area after paying a heavy cost of casualties was a breakthrough for the Russian army. , a major military victory.

　　Zhang Hong pointed out that Avdeyevka is only about 10 kilometers away from Donetsk, the capital of Donetsk Region. Previously, the Ukrainian army's shelling of the city of Donetsk caused security pressure on Russia. The victory of the Russian army means that the security environment in the Russian-controlled area of ​​Donetsk will be greatly improved.

　　The second level is political pressure.

　　Zhang Hong believes that if the normal life of the people in the Russian-controlled area of ​​Donetsk cannot be guaranteed, it will undoubtedly cause political pressure on Russia. When the Russian army captured the Avdeyevka region, Putin's congratulations were both military in nature and also showed his political will to control the relevant areas for a long time.

　　He further pointed out that, especially in March 2024, the four Russian-controlled states in eastern Ukraine are expected to participate in the Russian presidential election voting. Voting after the Russian army takes control of Avdeyevka will help enhance Russian society’s support for Putin in the election. Support adds a strong boost to Putin's political reputation and also contributes to the morale and unity of the Russian army.

　　Therefore, congratulating the Russian army on this victory conveys Putin’s firm political stance and determination towards Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.

Russia "uses war to promote peace" and increases pressure on Ukraine and the West

　　Zhang Hong believes that the Russian army’s victory has multiple meanings.

　　Specifically, first, since the Ukrainian army started its "big counteroffensive" in June 2023, it has tried to continue to put security pressure on the Russian-controlled areas. If the Russian army captures the Donetsk area, it means that on the eastern Ukrainian front, Russia will The military's battlefield initiative has become more flexible and expanded.

　　Second, the end of the Avdeyevka battle actually means that Russia is transforming its military initiative into diplomatic initiative.

　　Zhang Hong pointed out that the West and Ukraine have always refused to negotiate with Russia or dialogue with Putin. Therefore, Russia has continued to move forward through small military breakthroughs and regards military advancement as one of the important means to put pressure on the West. , increasing pressure on the West and Ukraine, and "promoting peace through war."

　　He believes that the Russian army's victory in Avdeyevka is to some extent an important symbol of the escalation of the diplomatic game between Russia and the West.

　　Third, Zhang Hong analyzed that Avdeyevka itself will not necessarily change the stability of the Russian-Ukrainian defense line in the Donbas region, but it just exposes the weakness of the West on the issue of aid to Ukraine.

　　Zhang Hong noticed that recently, the U.S. and Western aid to Ukraine has tended to slow down and shrink in scale. In this regard, he pointed out that combat not only tests manpower, but also the strength of equipment and logistics. Insufficient military aid is actually the most important reason for the Ukrainian army's defeat in Avdeyevka.

Data map: Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Ukrainian troops withdraw, is a new war about to break out?

　　Although Sersky called the withdrawal "to avoid siege and protect the lives and health of soldiers," and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy also said that "the decision to withdraw troops is correct," the Russian Satellite Network quoted a senior Pentagon official as saying , the situation in Avdeyevka may be a "precursor of a new defeat" for the Ukrainian army.

　　The official also said, "We are seeing that the Ukrainians are running out of critical supplies, especially ammunition. If they don't get additional funds, (Ukrainian army) troops will also run out of supplies in many places on the front line." "

　　It will be nearly two years since the Ukraine crisis broke out on February 24, 2022. Does the Ukrainian army's defeat at this important node mean that a turning point in the situation is coming?

　　In this regard, Zhang Hong pointed out that Russia and Ukraine are now at a deadlock on the battlefield and in political dialogue, and there has been no process of quantitative change to qualitative change. It is not yet certain how this crisis will end. However, the possibility of Ukraine continuing its military counterattack is actually getting smaller and smaller.

　　He also pointed out several trends worthy of attention:

　　First, the Donbas region is the main direction of the Russian army's current offensive. From Malinka to Avdeyevka, the next important location for the confrontation between the Russian and Ukrainian armies may be Bakhmut.

　　Russia may want to completely clear out a series of Ukrainian military positions around Donetsk to achieve security control over the entire Donbas region.

　　Second, Belgorod Oblast in southern Russia continues to be attacked and shelled by Ukrainian military rockets, and Russia must take measures to strengthen its response.

　　Zhang Hong noticed that Putin had proposed the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" in Ukraine in early 2024. Public opinion believes that this means that a certain range of areas will be demarcated in Ukraine to implement demilitarization and ease the current tension.

　　He also analyzed that he did not rule out that in the future, the Russian army would increase its attacks on some important military bases and key infrastructure of the Ukrainian army to consume and destroy the Ukrainian defense industry capabilities and combat capabilities, thereby forcing the Ukrainian army to reduce its attacks on Russia. Military raids in the south. (over)