``Audi Ivka will be taken back someday.''
(Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Sirsky) `
`Audi Ivka'' was one of the fierce battlegrounds where Russia's military invasion of Ukraine continued for a long time. In the early hours of the 17th, the Ukrainian military announced that it would withdraw its troops.
What does withdrawal mean? And what will be the impact going forward?
We asked an expert for details.
(Megumi Ebitsuka, International Department)
table of contents
Ukraine will “take it back”
What do experts think?
table of contents
table of contents
Ukraine will “take it back”
What do experts think?
What is “Audi Iuka”?
Audiivka is an industrial city in Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, and is home to one of the largest coke factories for steel manufacturing in Europe.
Since 2014, fighting has been taking place between pro-Russian armed groups and the Ukrainian military, and since Donetsk city was taken over by pro-Russian forces, it has become a front-line defense base for the Ukrainian military. .
The Russian military, which invaded Ukraine in October, has continued to attack Audiivka since the beginning of the invasion, using it as a foothold to take control of the entire Donetsk region.
According to the local mayor, the city was reduced to rubble due to the fierce fighting, and most of the infrastructure for daily life was suspended.
Many of the city's 33,000 residents before the invasion have evacuated, with only about 900 remaining in the city as of early this month.
Ukraine will “take it back”
Commander-in-Chief Shirsky
On the 17th, General Tarnowski, who commands troops around Donetsk Oblast, posted on social media, ``Although the withdrawal was carried out according to a plan, we were overwhelmed by overwhelming enemy forces, and some soldiers were taken prisoner in the final stages.'' '', indicating that the evacuation was nearing completion and calling for humane treatment of prisoners of war.
In addition, on the 17th, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Sirsky took to social media to praise the soldiers who had engaged in fierce battles with the Russian side for a long period of time, saying that they had "caused great damage to the enemy's personnel and equipment," and also praised the soldiers who had fought fiercely with the Russian side for a long time. "We will take Uka back someday," he said, emphasizing his commitment to retaking it in the future.
Russia is 'completely in control'
Minister of Defense Shoigu
Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 17th that Defense Minister Shoigu had reported to President Putin that the Russian military had taken full control of the Audi Ivka.
Furthermore, he reiterated his policy of aiming to take control of the entire Donetsk region, stating that he would ``continue the offensive in order to advance the liberation of Donetsk.''
The Russian military has been intensifying its offensive against Audi Ivka since around October last year, and the Putin administration, ahead of the presidential election in March, has announced to the people that seizing control of Audi Ivka is an important outcome of the invasion of Ukraine. It seems that there is also a desire to appeal.
What do experts think?
What is the meaning of this withdrawal and what will be the impact on the future?
We asked Shinji Hyodo, research secretary at the Ministry of Defense's National Institute for Defense Studies, to find out more.
Q What is “Audi Iuka” for Russia?
A: Donetsk Oblast is one of the two eastern regions that President Putin has prioritized from the beginning of the war. President Putin was more interested in Audi Ivka politically than because it was strategically important.
Q What is “Audi Ivka” for Ukraine?
A Since the Russian side is paying attention to this area politically, President Zelenskiy must have believed that this area must be protected as a symbol of its resistance. From President Zelenskiy's point of view, the withdrawal must not have been his intention.
Q Regarding the reason for the withdrawal, the new commander-in-chief, Mr. Shirsky, has explained that it is "to protect the lives of the soldiers."
A: “Political damage to President Zelensky is inevitable?”
Former Commander-in-Chief Zarzhny, who was dismissed by President Zelensky, made the same argument. As a result, President Zelenskiy ended up taking the move that Zarzhny had advocated for withdrawal.
If the war situation improves, the appointment of the current commander-in-chief will likely receive a certain amount of praise in Ukraine, but the decision to withdraw from Audiiivka means that Isn't there a possibility that opinions will be raised from within Japan asking, "What was the reason behind the replacement?"
Q What is the impact of withdrawal?
A: “Paying attention to how it will affect each country's military aid”
As aid from Western countries dwindles, Ukraine is facing a shortage of ammunition on the front lines. This highlights the current military predicament of the Ukrainian military.
I think Ukraine will take this opportunity to appeal to Western countries for further reinforcement of military support, but on the other hand, from Western countries' point of view, the situation that Ukraine is in is difficult and even if they provide further military support, Ukraine will not be able to do so. There is a possibility that some people will question whether there are any results.
Q What is the future situation of the war?
A: “I don't think the stalemate situation will continue.” The
Ukrainian military will likely strengthen its defense lines in the east while preventing the Russian military from further expanding its control. With the Russian military's current military strength, it will not be easy to significantly expand its control in a short period of time.