Prabowo Subianto won more than 58% of the votes in the Indonesian presidential elections, according to preliminary results (French)
Jakarta -
With the announcement of the results of the quick count of the Indonesian presidential elections on Wednesday, February 14, 2024, it seemed that the victory achieved by candidate Prabowo Subianto (72 years old) was easy, as he won more than 58% of the votes, and more than double that of the next candidate, Anies Baswedan. Who received 25%, according to unofficial results.
But Prabowo's victory came after a long journey of failure, which spanned 20 years of running in internal party elections in the Golkar Party in 2004, for the position of Vice President in 2009, and for the position of President in 2014 and 2019, without succeeding in any of them.
But his determination and the flexibility he showed since the last elections by accepting the position of Minister of Defense in the government of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) (2019 - until today), and his ability to form a broad coalition that included 8 parties, paved the way for him to enter the presidential palace.
After Prabowo is inaugurated as President of Indonesia in October 2024, he will find himself facing a set of real challenges, at several political and economic levels, internal and external.
One of these challenges is forming a strong and balanced government at the same time, among the eight parties, the “fat coalition” that carried him to the presidential palace. And formulating a balanced foreign policy between the United States and China, in light of the escalating conflict between them on the Indonesian doorstep in the South China Sea.
The most important internal challenges awaiting Prabowo can be summarized in 3 related to:
Citizen livelihood and achieving good economic growth.
Changing the stereotype of him as a fierce special forces commander.
Managing the relationship with President Jokowi, who maintained a window for himself in the decision-making room through his son, Gibran.
Serious challenges await Prabowo during his 5-year rule (Al Jazeera)
Citizen's livelihood
Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia, and an area of conflict and economic influence between the United States and China. Although it has recovered from the days of the financial crisis, the economic challenges remain severe. Despite the list of issues that concern the Indonesian street, its priority lies in the economic issue and what is related to its livelihood.
These elections were the result of the democratic transformation that followed a revolution in the Indonesian street in 1998 due to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, which destroyed the Indonesian economy, and led to massive student protests that the Suharto dictatorial regime faced with violent repression, which led to the outbreak of violent riots in May that lasted for two days in In the streets of Jakarta, hundreds were killed, forcing Suharto to step down in the same month.
The decade that Jokowi spent in office is generally viewed as a decade of stability and growth for the largest economy in Southeast Asia, despite the citizen's suffering in his daily living, due to some negative economic indicators. Therefore, the citizen’s livelihood is a sensitive issue, and the authorities take it seriously into account.
The three contenders in the presidential elections pledged to continue most of his initiatives, including strengthening the mining industry, expanding social welfare, and continuing work on building a new capital to replace Jakarta at a cost of $32 billion.
Adi Prayitno, professor of political science at Sharif Hidayatullah University, believes that “Prabowo faces three basic challenges in which he must make progress, even if slight, in his first year, so that the citizen feels the seriousness of positive change,” and they include:
Reducing the number of poor people.
Controlling the rise in commodity prices.
Providing job opportunities.
He added in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, "As for the list of electoral promises that pleased the Indonesian voter, such as Prabowo’s promises to build 3 million new homes in rural, coastal and urban areas, and launching a free lunch program for school children within the framework of a policy designed to combat stunting, work to implement them requires a period of time." "Long, and with a big budget because they are very ambitious promises."
He confirms that the decline in the value of the Indonesian rupiah (15,500 against the dollar) and the rise in prices require serious economic steps taken by a strong and honest economic team that works to provide an atmosphere of confidence for foreign investors, so that they feel the rule of law and a commitment to transparency in business.
Prabowo won thanks to a strong coalition that includes 8 parties that he must satisfy in forming the government (Al Jazeera)
Portrait of a violent general
More than 20 years ago, Prabowo replaced the military uniform of the Special Forces with that of a politician, party leader and businessman, but the stereotypical image that was imprinted on him during his military service and the accusations that pursued him of human rights violations still hover over his head at every opportunity.
He was accused of kidnapping more than 20 pro-democracy activists at the end of the 1990s, about 10 of whom were never found. Prabowo was also accused of committing human rights violations in East Timor and Papua.
He was discharged from the army in 1998 and banned from entering the United States until 2020 after he became defense minister under Jokowi. But he was never formally charged, nor was any evidence presented against him.
Political analyst Tabiyas Basuki believes that Prabowo tried throughout his election campaign to change the stereotyped image of him by nominating the young man, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (36 years old), as vice president, and appearing as a cheerful and dancing man, until the Indonesian youth called him “gentle grandfather.”
Therefore, Basuki believes in his speech to Al Jazeera Net, "The real challenge for Prabowo, after assuming power, is to present another personality to society and the world, the personality of a politician who accepts the rules of the democratic game, and protects personal and public freedoms and human rights."
In a precedent, President Jokowi (centre) appeared in the propaganda campaign with presidential candidates Prabowo (left) and his son Gibran (Al Jazeera).
Jokowi behind the scenes
No one disagrees that current President Jokowi had an influential role in Prabowo's easy victory, through his direct intervention in the electoral scene, and mobilizing his relationships and influence during the 10 years he spent in power, primarily to make his son Ghibran successful before Prabowo's success.
As Praytno says to Al Jazeera Net, "Unfortunately, Jokowi's government stopped a number of large and important projects to provide social assistance funds provided by the government prior to the elections, which are usually distributed in the second half of the year, but this year they were distributed at the beginning of the year as part of the election campaign for candidate Prabowo and his deputy, Gibran Ibn President".
Jokowi's strongest intervention in the elections was by changing the electoral law to enable his son to run as vice president because he had not reached 40 years of age, as the law required, through the President of the Constitutional Court, Anwar Othman, who is Jokowi's brother-in-law, and who was held responsible for this change in the law. He was dismissed, but the law change remained in effect, and Othman is now seeking to return to his position through the Supreme Court.
In a first of its kind, Jokowi was present in Prabowo and Ghibran's election campaign posters, a reminder that he is an essential element in the next governing body, and that there is a third pivotal player lurking in the background of the scene.
Therefore, Basuki believes that the unspoken truth is that “Ghibran is a political novice, and he will remain under his father’s care in managing the files that he will handle, meaning that he will hold some strings behind the scenes.”
He added, "It should not be forgotten that Prabowo and Jokowi ran for the presidency in 2014 and 2019, and therefore the relationship was originally competitive, and the alliance was the exception to each party's need for the other."
The analyst and researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, Mohamed Salih, confirms that all the candidates tried to ally with Jokowi to benefit from his powers, but he chose to ally with Prabowo by nominating his son, so that he would have influence in the next government.
The same analyst explained to Al Jazeera Net that “Prabowo is an old politician who ran for the fourth time, and he has his own program and personal ambition, and this will appear after about two years of rule, and his relationship with Jokowi will change, as he is nothing more than a bridge through which Prabowo crossed to the presidency. I expect that he will return to square one with the alliance.” With the Suharto family in the 2029 elections.”
However, an estimate is being circulated by politicians, on social media platforms and in opinion articles, that there is mutual stalking between Prabowo and Jokowi. Prabowo twice suffered a stroke that still affects his unbalanced gait, and if he falls ill again or dies, Ghibran will become president, which opens the door wide for Jokowi to influence the country's politics.
Source: Al Jazeera