The Western coalition to supply Ukraine with air defense systems has begun its work, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said following the 19th meeting of the contact group in the Ramstein format.

“We are strengthening our air defense both with systems and missiles for them. The Integrated Air and Missile Defense Coalition has officially begun its work. 15 countries have already joined. I am grateful to Germany, France and the USA for their leadership,” Umerov wrote on social networks.

At the same time, a slightly different wording was published on the website of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. It notes that “representatives of the defense ministries of 15 countries signed an agreement in Brussels on their intention to create a new coalition of integrated air and missile defense.”

Thus, Kiev considered the signing of the agreement of intent to be the official beginning of the coalition’s work. The purpose of this association is to assist in strengthening the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Such a step will allow Ukraine to be effective on the battlefield, and will also provide more protection to civilians,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry says on its website.

  • Rustem Umerov

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Vladimir Zelensky announced his intention to create such a coalition back in November last year following the 17th meeting of the contact group on the defense of Ukraine. According to the newspaper Handelsblatt, this alliance is led by Germany and France.

As German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius explained, the West has already provided Ukraine with urgent assistance in the field of air defense and now we are talking about ensuring the long-term capabilities of Kyiv. In his opinion, the work of air defense is the main prerequisite for the success of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Rustem Umerov also announced the launch of a similar association in the field of UAV supplies.

“Drones. There will be more. We are strengthening interaction with partners on the issue of unmanned systems. Today the drone coalition officially launched its work. Eight countries have already joined - Sweden, Great Britain, Denmark, Germany, Lithuania, Estonia, the Netherlands, Latvia,” the minister said.

In addition, according to him, 20 countries have officially joined the mine clearance coalition.

A series of alliances

It is worth noting that, in addition to the air defense alliance, Germany also plans to lead a coalition on armored combat vehicles. Boris Pistorius announced this. In addition, Germany wants to take part in alliances on artillery, maritime security, mine clearance and drones.

In addition, at a meeting of the contact group on military assistance to Kyiv in Brussels, Pistorius promised that this year three to four times more artillery shells will be sent to Ukraine than in 2023, Handelsblatt reports.

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In turn, the United States currently leads only two coalitions. As Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin recently announced, Washington, together with Denmark and the Netherlands, is coordinating the work of the aviation alliance, and with France, the artillery alliance.

The formation of alliances for military-technical assistance to Kyiv is not a new practice in the West. Previously, NATO countries had already created a tank alliance, which included Denmark, Spain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Norway and Portugal. However, the effectiveness of this association in the West is assessed ambiguously.

For example, in February last year, Bloomberg wrote that the coalition's efforts to provide Ukraine with tanks had failed. The publication made this conclusion after Pistorius’ statement that Germany and Portugal were the only countries that pledged to send the Ukrainian Armed Forces one of the most modern versions of the Leopard tank, the Leopard 2A6.

The so-called coalition of fighters, which was supposed to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with F-16 aircraft, became known in the first half of 2023, but Kyiv has not yet received a single fighter. However, following the results of the 19th Ramstein, Umerov assured that work on the supply of F-16s is supposedly going on schedule within the framework of previously reached agreements.

Limited effectiveness

According to analysts, the creation of coalitions was initiated by Washington in order to distribute responsibilities for providing Ukraine with weapons among Western countries.

“Such small coalitions are needed to unite countries into different groups depending on their competencies. Some are engaged in artillery, others in mine clearance, and still others in aviation. The states that will join such associations will transfer weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as advise Ukrainians on the tactics and strategy of their use,” RISI expert Sergei Ermakov noted in a commentary to RT.

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In addition, coalitions make it possible to transfer the decision-making process on issues of supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the NATO platform to a separate format. Washington needs this because not all countries in the bloc support pumping weapons into Ukraine, political scientists explain. 

“Within NATO, it is very difficult for the United States to promote all these issues, since there are certain allied countries that are quite skeptical about expanding assistance to Ukraine. For example, Hungary may well block some decisions at the alliance level,” says Ermakov.

Such coalitions also allow the United States to gradually shift the work of providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces onto the shoulders of the Europeans, which is especially important given the difficulties in accepting a new aid package for Kyiv, the analyst believes.

“Washington is pushing its European allies to increase assistance to the Kyiv regime,” Ermakov is sure.

Alexey Podberezkin, director of the Center for Military-Political Studies at MGIMO, shares a similar opinion.

“The Americans would really like to shift a certain part of this work to the allies, so that they would supply the maximum possible volumes of ammunition and weapons,” the specialist noted in a conversation with RT.

At the same time, Sergei Ermakov believes that Brussels will still not be able to do without Washington’s help.

“The European Union is not able to completely replace arms supplies from the United States. Moreover, many European weapons systems are produced in cooperation with the Americans,” explained the RISI expert.

In turn, Alexey Podberezkin recalls that the defense industry of the European Union is significantly inferior to the American one. For this reason, according to the analyst, the effectiveness of mini-coalitions created without the participation of the United States will be noticeably limited.

“Coalitions will be effective, but to a certain extent. The military-technical capabilities of European countries are now approximately a third of those of the United States. Therefore, you shouldn’t expect very much from the EU, and the consumption of weapons in Ukraine is high. In this sense, coalitions will not be able to radically solve the arms problem that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now facing. However, the work of the coalitions will likely allow the Kyiv regime to hold out for some more time,” predicts Podberezkin.