Pablo R. SuanzesBrussels Correspondent
Agencies
Brussels Correspondent
Updated Friday, February 16, 2024-14:25
Russia Russian opponent Alexei Navalny dies in prison, according to prison services
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Obituary Alexei Navalny, the opponent who became the biggest threat to Putin
A decade ago, journalist
Peter Pomerantsev
, born in Kiev in the midst of the Soviet Union, published a prescient book that explained the daily life of the "new Russia." The title summed it up perfectly: "Nothing is true and everything is possible in the era of Putin." The news about
the death of the opponent Alexei Navalny
fits like a glove. First, because it is impossible to know if the announcement by the Russian authorities is true, since everything is contaminated, hidden, and not even the political prisoner's own family and foundation accept it as good yet. Second, because this shows that everything, no matter how brutal and cruel, no matter how inconceivable, is undoubtedly possible.
But if another lesson can be extracted from that book and other good recent analyses, it is that Putin responds to patterns, to incentives, to dynamics. His interpretation of the world in February 2024,
almost exactly two years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine,
is that the right circumstances exist for the stakes and the challenge to be raised.
And that is why it is no coincidence that just now the death of the main opponent and the only vague internal threat to his regime is announced. It is no coincidence that it is a few days after closing the doors to the only half-credible candidate who could cast some shadow on him in the elections in a month's time. It is no coincidence that the death of the greatest symbol of hope is announced while world leaders and the entire Security and Defense community on the planet are meeting for the Munich Conference, including the now widowed Yulia Navalny. And it is no coincidence that the shock also comes just
a few days after putting the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas,
one of his harshest critics and always in the running to lead NATO, on a wanted list.
since September.
"Navalny fought for the values of freedom and democracy and for his ideals, he made the ultimate sacrifice. The EU considers the Russian regime solely responsible for this tragic death. I extend my deepest condolences to his family. And to those who fight for democracy around the world in the darkest conditions. Fighters die. But the fight for freedom never ends," said the President of the European Council,
Charles Michel.
"There is nothing Putin fears more than the dissent of his own people. A grim reminder of what he and his regime are all about. Let us unite in our fight to safeguard the freedom and security of those who dare to stand up to autocracy," the president of the European Commission,
Ursula von der Leyen, has reacted.
"The world has lost a fighter whose courage will resonate through generations. Horrified by the death of Sakharov Prize winner Alexei Navalny. Russia took his freedom and life, but not his dignity. His fight for democracy lives on. Our thoughts They are with their wife and children," wrote the president of the European Parliament
, Roberta Metsola.
The condemnations, lamentations, rage and fury come from the four corners of the continent, especially from its neighbors. "Alexei Navalny did not die in prison, he was murdered by the Kremlin's brutality and its goal of silencing the opposition at any cost. The Russian regime must face the consequences. He must be brought to justice," said the Lithuanian president.
Nauseated Gypsies.
The Secretary General of NATO, present in Munich, has been more cautious for the logical reasons of his position and after showing his pain and concern he has only said that "Russia will have to answer many questions":
Europe reacted this Friday quickly and with many words. But Putin believes there won't be much more. The sanctions against his country, his family, his circle, have been there for a long time, and although they have done some damage, not enough.
On Monday, the foreign ministers of the 27 meet in Brussels and the issue will undoubtedly be on the agenda, as a last-minute item
.
So far the continent has held its own, something it did not do in 2008 and 2014 after its military aggressions against neighboring countries, so it is willing to take it a little further. "Alexei Navalny was a defender of democracy and human rights. His tragic death once again underlines why we will continue to support Ukraine. Russia will not prevail. Our thoughts are with the family and friends of all brave Russian political prisoners," he said. assured by the Belgian Prime Minister,
Alexander de Croo
, whose country holds the presidency of the EU Council this semester.
If there is one thing that has characterized Vladimir Putin over the last two decades, it has been his ability to read his adversaries, domestic and international. When the air was favorable, he did not hesitate to approach NATO and attend its summits, to organize joint exercises. When the winds changed, they mobilized their armored battalions. When the West, Europe and the US, hesitate, hesitate, he acts with all the brutality and devastation that is necessary. He did it in Chechnya, in Georgia, in the Donbass and in the Crimea. He did it almost exactly two years ago now with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And he did it with the journalist
Anna Politkóvskaya,
with the deputies
Vladimir Golovliov and Sergei Yushenkov,
with the former deputy prime minister
Boris Nemtsov
or the former spy
Alexander Litvinenko.
Not to mention Wagner's founder, his chief mercenary,
Yevgeny Prigozhin
.
After two years of unity with Ukraine, the shipment of weapons, 100 billion dollars of international aid, Putin has seen weaknesses, smelled blood. He sees the fissures in the EU thanks to his main supporter, Viktor Orban, but also to those from Slovakia or the Netherlands who advocate turning back in search of a fictitious peace. And he has seen the vein in the United States, in the ranks of an unrecognizable Republican Party. The GOP that belonged to Reagan or Bush is full of isolationists at best and conspiracists, pro-Russians and authoritarians unthinkable two decades ago who want to cut off aid to Ukraine and leave the European board in the hands of Moscow. Starting with its leader, Donald Trump.
Putin believes that time and wind are in his favor, and that useful fools and propagandists like Tucker Carlson are doing his job, so he has no incentive to slow down and everyone to speed up. While his people murder opponents or
ban them from elections, as has happened with political scientist Boris Nadezhdi,
apologists praise the Moscow subway or marvel at coin-operated supermarket carts. Or they block in Congress, in Washington DC, the package that kyiv needs to survive.
Europe will need a much stronger response in the coming days because any scenario of withdrawal, peace, understanding, is pure fiction, fantasy. Appeasement has not worked nor is there any indication that it will after what many see as the assassination of Navalny, the direct threats to Kallas, the increase in attacks in Ukraine. Elections are approaching on the continent and in the US. Putin is deploying his pawns with complete clarity, he has never hidden his intentions and moved his pawns. And the clock, apparently, gives him more leeway than before.
The president of the Spanish government,
Pedro Sánchez
, has been "shocked" by the death of the Russian opponent Alexei Navalny, who was, he said, "unjustly imprisoned by the (Vladimir) Putin regime for his defense of human rights and democracy". For his part, the Minister of Foreign Affairs,
José Manuel Albares
, demanded this Friday that Russia clarify the circumstances of Navalny's death. "We demand clarification of the circumstances of his death, which occurred during his unjust imprisonment for political reasons. Our condolences to his family and support to those who work for freedom," says Albares in his X account. .