According to the preliminary results, this is how Prabowo easily won the presidency of Indonesia

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Jakarta -

The results of the quick count, which opinion poll centers conduct with voters in Indonesia when they leave the polling stations, showed that presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto led by a wide margin over the other two candidates, and with more than double the votes than the next one, which qualifies him to decide the presidential race in the first round.

Although the official results, which will be announced by the Election Commission next March 20, after counting all the votes and receiving objections and appeals and deciding on them, the results of the quick count after counting approximately 90% of the votes, which are unofficial results and issued by several statistical centers, showed that the candidate obtained Prabowo received approximately 58% of the votes on average, which is more than the 50% + 1 required to win, while his competitor, Anis Baswedan, received approximately 25%, and Gangar Brannow came third with 17%.

This result is considered close to what was expected by polls of credible specialized centers in Indonesia, except that the votes obtained by Prabowo were higher than expected by about 5%.

Prabowo's supporters celebrate his victory in South Jakarta Hall (Al Jazeera)

Rush into celebrations

It seems that these results have settled the electoral scene in favor of Prabowo due to the large difference between him and Anis, so Prabowo and his allies (8 parties) hastened to celebrate the easy victory they had achieved, and held a celebration in a hall in the Sunain area, south of Jakarta.

In his victory speech, Prabowo thanked the Indonesian people, regardless of their choices in the elections. What is important, according to his opinion, is that “the largest elections in the world, which were held in one day, were conducted smoothly and carefully organized, without anything occurring that disturbed their integrity.” He thanked the Election Commission and everyone who participated in the success of the process. Electoral.

Prabowo confirmed that he and his deputy, Gibran, will form a presidency for all the Indonesian people, regardless of their religions or political positions, but they will wait for the final result that the Election Commission will announce on March 20.

Prabowo thanked Indonesia's former leaders, from Ahmed Sukarno to Jokowi, through Suharto, Habibie, Abdul Rahman Wahid, Megawati, and Susilo Bambeng Yudhoyono, "all of whom served and advanced Indonesia."

For his part, his deputy, Ghibran, said, “Three months ago, I was a citizen like other young people, so I thank the nation’s youth for supporting me in reaching this position, and this is due to their keenness to have a role in running the country and working on its renaissance.”

The vote counting process continues at the polling stations (Al Jazeera)

An easy and surprising victory

The remarkable victory achieved by Prabowo, which brought him one step away from the presidency of Indonesia, for which he had previously fought 4 attempts over 20 years to reach it (2004 - 2024), surprised observers, who expected him to win, but not so easily.

Dr. Mada Sukmagati, professor of political science at Gajah Mada University, says, “The current president, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), has a clear imprint on Prabowo’s victory, by mobilizing support in various ways behind the winning candidate, such as the social aid that the president distributed before the elections, which is a legal and legitimate method.” His powers, but the timing of the aid served Prabowo and his deputy (Jokowi’s son).”

He added in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, "The president also intervened illegally and intangibly at the same time, by pushing state officials and employees such as village chiefs, police, and other civil servants to elect Prabowo."

It was noteworthy that the Struggle for Democracy Party, led by Megawati Soekarnoputri, and with the support of the third candidate, Ganjar Branwo, obtained the largest percentage of seats in the central parliament, with approximately 18% of the votes, while Ganjar’s share of the votes did not exceed 17%.

This is explained by Sukmagati by saying, “Many supporters of the Struggle Party did not vote for the party’s candidate, Ganjar, but rather supported President Prabowo’s candidate,” knowing that the president won the last elections for the Struggle Party.

The political science professor believes that Prabowo's nomination of Ghibran alongside him as vice president attracted a large segment of young people to vote for him, and therefore he is expected to receive approximately 60% of the votes, a percentage he described as very high.

For his part, analyst and researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies in Jakarta, Muhammad Salih, believes that "Prabowo achieved an easy victory because he was able to bring together important political figures in Jakarta and various regions of Indonesia."

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Saleh agrees with Sukmagati’s opinion, that “the decisive factor in Prabowo’s victory is his alliance with Jokowi, who harnessed his powers and state institutions to support the alliance, and without this support, he would not have been able to win the elections.”

Saleh asserts that “all the candidates sought to ally with Jokowi, to benefit from his influence in state institutions, but he chose to ally with Prabowo by nominating his son, so that he would have influence in the next government.”

From the hall celebrating Prabowo's victory in Jakarta (Al Jazeera)

An alliance that may not last long

The broad coalition that contributed to Prabowo's easy victory will create difficulty for him in distributing the spoils of victory among 8 parties, as a reward for their support and mobilizing their supporters behind him, especially since Prabowo's party (Girendra) will receive approximately 14% of the votes in the legislative elections, according to the results of the quick count, so it will remain He needs to maintain his coalition under the dome of Parliament.

Regarding this, Sukmagati believes that what he described as a “very fat coalition” will pose a challenge to Prabowo, and requires great wisdom in forming the next government, and “the election coalition may not be the same as the coalition to form the government.”

He believes that the other challenge that Prabowo will face is his relationship with current President Jokowi, after he actually assumes the presidency, and the role that the president will continue to play after his term ends next October.

Sukmagati does not rule out that Prabowo will open up to the Struggle Party led by Megawati, given his political weight and his leadership in the legislative elections. He says, “I think the government will not be strong if it does not include the Struggle Party.”

Saleh believes that “Prabowo is an old politician and succeeded in the presidential elections on his fourth attempt, and this indicates the clarity of his vision of what he wants to achieve.” Therefore, he believes that “Prabowo has taken Jokowi as a bridge for the presidency and will maintain his alliance with him for two years, then he will begin to change his alliances.” He does not rule out Prabowo must restore his relationship with the Suharto family in order to ally with it in the next elections in 2029.

Counting votes in polling stations in the presence of observers (Al Jazeera)

Stay tuned for the final results

The rapid count of the legislative elections is still underway, but according to what has been counted - which is around 70% - 9 of the 18 parties at the national level that ran in the elections will not be able to enter the next parliament, because they did not cross the parliamentary threshold (4% of the votes). Which may be approximately 6 million votes, according to the voting percentage of the total number of people eligible to vote.

In general, the next parliament will be composed of 9 parties like the current parliament, and it does not seem that the parties’ shares will change significantly, as what has been announced so far in the quick count is close to what the 9 parties obtained in the last elections in 2019, and none of them achieved a noticeable leap in this. Elections, but the matter remains dependent on the final results that the Election Commission will announce next month.

Source: Al Jazeera