Cal's Lucas Asia Correspondent
Asia correspondent
Updated Wednesday, February 14, 2024-16:13
Joko Widodo elections: the legacy of the furniture manufacturer who reinvented the economy of the world's third largest democracy
There was a time when mentioning the name of
Prabowo Subianto
in Indonesia meant invoking the figure of
a feared general
who had been
expelled from the army
under
accusations of kidnapping and torturing pro-democracy activists
. Even the United States banned him from entering the country for more than 20 years. But in a new exercise in collective amnesia in a Southeast Asian country, Prabowo has
won a presidential election
and will be the next leader of the world's third largest democracy.
Election day in Indonesia is always extraordinary - and a challenge for a democratic system traditionally overwhelmed by corruption - because we are talking about an
archipelago with 270 million inhabitants
, with hundreds of different languages and ethnicities, spread
over more than 17,000 islands
. It is a country with rich natural resources and a rapidly growing economy. Furthermore, due to its key strategic location, it plays a fundamental arbitrator role in regional geopolitics.
The winner needed to exceed 50% of the votes to avoid a second round. According to unofficial counts, Prabowo has swept the polls,
around 60%
. Indonesian analysts point to three key factors in his victory: he has left behind the tough military profile to
present himself in the campaign as a friendly grandfather
to a very young electorate who is far from the years in which Prabowo served under the deceased Dictator Suharto. He has also had the
support of popular President Joko Widodo
and has promised a policy of continuity with the successful development plans of his predecessor.
Widodo (62 years old) could not run again in these elections after exceeding the constitutional limit of two terms. But one of the controversies during the electoral campaign was that the leader managed to sneak into the vice presidential candidacy, teaming up with Prabowo, his eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (36 years old), mayor of the city of Surakarta.
The controversy was that Gibran was able to run as a candidate because a court changed the eligibility criteria, starting with the minimum legal age to run for vice president. The president of that court was Widodo's brother-in-law.
Another controversy centers on fears that the outgoing leader, the only one since Indonesia's independence in 1945 who does not come from a military or aristocratic lineage, is
weaving a new political dynasty
to control the country in the near future. Widodo's critics have long denounced Indonesia's democratic retreat, with increasing repression against activists and journalists.
Very young voter profile
This Wednesday, nearly 205 million people could vote for their new executive and legislative representatives in the fourth largest country in the world, with an 88% Muslim population. The particularity of these elections in the busy electoral year that we have been going through was the
dominant profile of the young voter
: more than half are
between 17 and 40 years old
, and around a third (63 million) less than 30 years old.
That demographic group has been the one that Prabowo has captivated during a campaign in which
he has moved with agility on social networks
, especially with viral videos on TikTok where he has left behind his old tough man profile to sell himself as the ideal father-in-law and like an endearing dancing and talkative grandfather.
All of this has helped to internally erase Prabowo's reputation as the leader of the army special forces that were accused of kidnappings and torture in the 1990s, and also of bloody military operations in East Timor - a country that gained independence from Indonesia. in 2002 - that left hundreds dead. Prabowo has always denied the allegations. He defends that, if they had been true, he would have been tried in court.
It was the third time Prabowo, who comes from a wealthy political dynasty, had run for president. He lost against Widodo in 2014 and 2019. But
in the last legislature
, dominated by a coalition government, the military man, representative of the conservative Gerindra party,
entered the cabinet as Minister of Defense
. It was then that Washington lifted his punishment and invited him to a meeting with senior Pentagon officials.
The United States
, which was trying to form alliances in Southeast Asia against China, also
forgot the veto
that decades before had imposed on a military
man, son-in-law of the dictator Suharto
, who was expelled from the army after being accused of ordering the
kidnapping of at least 24 young activists in Jakarta
. Nothing more than 13 of them were ever heard from again.
It was precisely these kidnappings that ignited the massive protests in Jakarta that led to the end of the Suharto regime in 1998. After the tyrant's fall, Prabowo went into exile in Jordan. But the most curious thing now is that, as local media have reported, several of the activists tortured by members of the special forces led by Prabowo are now members of the Gerindra party.
Prabowo has passed at the polls
over his two rivals
, the former governor of Jakarta,
Anies Baswedan
(54 years old), and
Ganjar Pranowo
(55 years old), former governor of Central Java. With the official results still to be known, the winner of the elections and his running mate Gibran gave a victory speech on Wednesday night in a stadium in Jakarta. "Indonesia's democracy is working well. I will form a government for all Indonesians and made up of the best in the country," the former general said.
Prabowo has promised to continue some of Widodo's applauded policies, such as encouraging investment in the rich nickel processing industry or moving the capital from Jakarta - which is sinking due to flooding and rising sea levels - to the island of Borneo. , more than 1,000 kilometers away, where a modern city is being built in the middle of the jungle.
The next leader has indicated that he will be able to raise annual economic growth from 5 to 8%. In foreign policy, Prabowo's Indonesia is expected to be faithful to the geopolitical juggling that Widodo promoted, maintaining optimal commercial and diplomatic relations with China, allowing the US navy to walk through its waters to carry out joint military maneuvers and continue with the purchase of arms and oil to Russia.