Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is facing an unprecedented crisis. A few months before the local and European elections, will he manage to quell the controversy arising from the pardon granted in a child crime case? The head of government has not spoken for almost a week, simply posting, on Wednesday February 14, a photo of the cabinet "at work".
In just a few days last week, the affair sealed the fall of President Katalin Novak and former Minister of Justice Judit Varga, expected to be head of the European list.
These two most prominent women of the Fidesz party, faces of the Orban regime abroad, took responsibility and disappeared from the political scene overnight, after years of loyal service.
Since the return of the nationalist leader in 2010 and the gradual bringing into line of counter-powers, "no scandal has had such a dazzling political impact", estimates the Political Capital think tank in a note.
For analyst Robert Laszlo, interviewed by AFP, "what makes these events extraordinary is the succession of controversies without the government managing to stop" the infernal cycle.
“Cardinal Richelieu”
Because on the very evening of the resignation, February 10, of the former Minister of Justice, Peter Magyar, her ex-husband and very good connoisseur of the mysteries of power, let his resentment explode on social networks.
“I don’t want for another minute to be part of a system in which the real leaders hide behind women’s skirts,” he said, announcing his withdrawal from two public companies.
He persisted the next day, during an interview broadcast on the Partizan YouTube channel, one of the few independent media outlets.
In this video viewed more than 1.6 million times, an exceptional audience in a country of 9.7 million inhabitants, he castigates the endemic corruption of Hungary, last in the ranking of the NGO Transparency International covering the 27 EU countries.
Over the years, Viktor Orban's close circle has grown spectacularly rich and faced with suspicions of misappropriation of European funds, Brussels has frozen billions of euros.
“This situation cannot continue,” says Peter Magyar. “Is it normal that a handful of families own half the country?”
It describes an authoritarian system controlling public discourse and governing the private lives of its members. If he does not directly attack the Prime Minister, he specifically targets his eminence grise, the all-powerful Antal Rogan, "Cardinal Richelieu" of Hungary.
Asked by AFP, Peter Magyar did not respond. The government has swept aside “the desperate maneuvers of those with their backs to the wall”.
Solid seat
“The scandal has cut to the heart of the government's narrative on child protection,” comments Andras Biro-Nagy, director of the Policy Solutions institute, and revealed the fragilities of a system trapped in its own propaganda.
The indignation, he points out, was amplified by the fact that Katalin Novak built her career on her image as a mother, a leading figure in pro-natalist policies.
His departure did not resolve the mystery behind the pardon received by the former deputy director of a children's home, sentenced in 2022 to more than three years in prison for covering up the child criminal actions of his superior.
No explanation was provided. Called into question, the Calvinist bishop Zoltan Balog, advisor to the president, admitted having supported the clemency measure without detailing the reasons.
After demonstrations last week at the call of the opposition, influencers called a rally on Friday in solidarity with the “victims betrayed” by this decision.
A sign that Viktor Orban will not be able to turn the page as quickly as he would have liked.
But in the opinion of Political Capital, "it is unlikely that the affair will tarnish his reputation among his supporters" as he has firmly established his power.
To end this unpleasant episode, experts also expect a new turn of the screw against the independent press which revealed the pardon, discreetly granted on the occasion of the Pope's visit in April 2023.
Viktor Orban's State of the Nation speech, scheduled for Saturday, will be carefully examined.
With AFP
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