Go into debt for security
After Donald Trump's verbal withdrawal from NATO's obligation to provide assistance at the weekend, it seems clear what lies ahead for Europe: If Trump is re-elected US President in November, the USA can no longer be counted on as a guarantor of Europe's security. This man does not see dictators like Vladimir Putin as his enemies. But his western allies.
It will therefore not be enough to keep our fingers crossed for Joe Biden. Europe's politicians must take Trump's words as an opportunity to make Europe more defensive. Above all, this means that defense spending must increase – significantly. More weapons are needed for Ukraine, but also supplies for the Bundeswehr. The federal government boasts that it will achieve NATO's two percent target by 2024. But that won't be enough to defend the Baltics against a Russian attack. And if the 100 billion euro special fund is used up in three or four years, there will be a huge gap in the defense budget. This could only be changed if the debt brake was relaxed or the special assets were increased. Ultimately it comes down to the same thing: Germany has to take on debt for its security. The debate about this should begin now.
And the EU must also pull itself together and finally breathe life into the not entirely fresh idea of a common defense and security policy. After all, the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland, who met yesterday in Paris, confirmed this. "If Putin sets out to divide Europe, then he has achieved exactly the opposite," said Annalena Baerbock after the meeting. Hopefully she's right.
You can read more about the topic here: The Panzer Chancellor
Govern or block?
The biggest loser in Sunday's Berlin mini-election is the FDP. It must give up a mandate without replacement - as the only party. Now there are still 91 FDP members in the Bundestag, but the trend is likely to remind party leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner of 2013. At that time, his group was thrown out of the Bundestag. FDP Vice President Wolfgang Kubicki warned on Monday that his party needed a course correction. So govern instead of block? Or will the FDP now insist even more on its positions?
This could become apparent in the next few days: The EU supply chain law will then be voted on in Brussels. A first vote was recently postponed because the FDP had apparently tried to mobilize resistance to the law. If the German abstention demanded by the Liberals in Brussels remains, the entire project could fail. The FDP is also blocking other traffic light legislative proposals, such as the Democracy Promotion Act.
A party member survey a few weeks ago was just about in favor of the traffic lights. But hardly anyone would currently bet on the FDP remaining in the traffic light alliance until the end of the legislative period.
You can read more background information here: The supply chain massacre
Baerbock's Mission Impossible
Annalena Baerbock has traveled to the Middle East four times since the brutal Hamas terrorist attack. Today the Foreign Minister is receiving a representative of the Palestinians in Berlin: her counterpart Riad al-Malki. The meeting is a signal that Germany is committed to a post-war order in the Gaza Strip that includes the representatives of the autonomous authority in Ramallah. There is much to discuss: How to govern and build Gaza? How can the two-state solution be implemented? And: Who will finally send the aged Mahmoud Abbas into retirement?
Tomorrow Baerbock will travel again to Israel, where she will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who rejects a two-state solution. It is to be hoped that Baerbock will make it clear to him that this attitude will not be tolerated by the federal government. Not despite, but because of Germany's special responsibility for Israel's security. It's Baerbock's Mission Impossible.
The most important issue will certainly be the situation in Rafah, the city in the southern Gaza Strip near the Egyptian border, where a majority of the approximately 2.3 million people have taken refuge. It is the only reasonably safe place - and presumably also a retreat for Hamas. Israel is now planning a military offensive there and has already freed two hostages in Rafah on Monday night. However, the joy is clouded by the fact that, according to the Hamas health authority in Gaza, at least 67 people are said to have been killed, including women and children. Because the Israeli army bombed houses in the area, probably as a distraction.
The liberation operation and the announcement of a military offensive in Rafah are probably intended to put pressure on Hamas and force it to make concessions. And thus offer Netanyahu a way out. Because his right-wing extremist coalition partners reject the hostage deal that is currently being negotiated. But time is running out for the other 100 or so hostages who are presumably still alive. And for Palestinian civilians, the situation in Rafah is becoming increasingly catastrophic.
You can read more about the topic here: How Israel managed to free the two hostages from Rafah
Click here for the current daily quiz
The starting question today: What are the “red states” in the USA?
Loser of the day...
...is the train driver. Deutsche Bahn is testing whether it can travel faster, more punctually and more effectively with self-driving trains in the future, as my colleague Lukas Kissel has researched. Although self-propelled does not mean driverless, the train driver would no longer be so crucial. His future task: "Look at the track, operate the doors and make sure there are no deer on the tracks." Braking, adjusting the speed, all of that would be done by the computer. Maybe at some point people won't be needed anymore. Train drivers who paralyzed half the country with strikes would then be a thing of the past. Unfortunately, the colleague warns that it could take even longer until the driverless train arrives. That's right, it's Deutsche Bahn.
Automation on the railway: When the computer controls the train
The latest reports from the night
Israel proposes tent cities for population of Rafah:
Israel's planned military offensive in Rafah is met with sharp international criticism. According to a media report, the country has submitted a plan to its neighbor Egypt on how to evacuate the city.
Israel's Defense Minister describes the hostage rescue in the Gaza Strip as a turning point:
Israel's military has succeeded in freeing Hamas hostages from the Gaza Strip for the second time. "The day when there will be further operations is not far away," says Israel's Defense Minister Joav Gallant.
1,700-year-old, undamaged egg contains yolk and protein:
During excavations in Aylesbury, England, archaeologists found an intact chicken egg. Subsequent investigations make the discovery even more valuable: it is probably the oldest unintentionally preserved bird egg in the world.
Germany has the fourth highest school dropout rate in the EU:
Germany has a significant problem with school dropouts. In 2022 the rate was well above the EU average. Education Minister Stark-Watzinger is concerned about the “prosperity of our country.”
I would particularly like to recommend this text to you today:
Uprising against Tesla:
In Grünheide there are four old village churches, monuments - and Tesla's only factory in Europe. And that's exactly what's causing trouble again. Elon Musk wants to expand the electric car factory in northwest Brandenburg. The only problem is that a forest of around 100 hectares in size needs to be cut down. Residents and environmentalists are very concerned about groundwater. My colleague Franziska Schindler got an idea of the mood on site. The case is tough. Citizens will soon vote on the Musk plan. There will also be a vote on Tesla in general - and on the big question: Are people still behind the gigantic prestige project at the gates of the capital?
I wish you a good start to the day.
Your Juliane von Mittelstaedt, deputy head of the international department