LIGHTING
Indonesia: who will be the next president of the 3rd largest democracy in the world?
Some 205 million Indonesians out of 270 million inhabitants are going to the polls this Wednesday, February 14 to renew their Parliament, appoint their local representatives and choose the new President of the Republic. The outgoing Joko Widodo cannot run again after his two consecutive terms. A public holiday, the vote is expected to attract at least 80% of voters, a record average participation rate in the Asia-Pacific region and globally.
Presidential candidates and their running mates: Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD, hold their ballot papers for the presidential elections, during a ceremony at the electoral commission headquarters in Jakarta, Indonesia, November 14, 2023. REUTERS - WILLY KURNIAWAN
By: Nicolas Sanders Follow
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From our special correspondent in Jakarta,
In addition to the countless candidates in the legislative election (nearly 10,000 for 575 seats to be filled), three candidates are in the running in
Indonesia
for the presidential election. Each person proposes a “ticket” in the style of the American election, that is to say a running mate who is destined to become his vice-president. The candidates for the supreme office are designated by a number.
Number 1: Anies Baswedan (running mate: Muhainim Iskandar)
Anies Baswedan, aged 54, was educated in the United States, and entered politics after an academic career. Former pen of candidate
Joko Widodo
during the 2014 presidential election, he is running as an independent under the banner of the “Coalition for Change” dubbed by different political movements. Former Minister of Education in the first Jokowi government (Joko Widodo's nickname) and former governor of Jakarta, he is accompanied by Muhaimin Iskandar, president of the National Awakening Party (PKB), the largest Muslim political party in Indonesia. They received support from the NasDem party and another Muslim party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
Candidate Anies Baswedan and his running mate intend to make Indonesia "
fair and prosperous for all Indonesians
", by developing 40 cities across the country and canceling Jokowi's flagship project to relocate the Indonesian capital to the island of Kalimantan ( Borneo) to Nusantara. When Anies Baswedan ran for governor of Jakarta in 2017, he was criticized for playing on the religious sentiment of Muslim voters against his Christian rival Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known as Ahok , who ended up being imprisoned for 2 years for blasphemy, because he had rightly criticized the use of the Koran by his opponents in the campaign.
Candidate Anies Baswedan and his running mate Muhainim Iskandar, during a press conference after his last campaign meeting which brought together at least 100,000 people. © Nicolas Sanders/RFI
Number 2: Prabowo Subianto (running mate: Gibran Rakabuming Raka)
The current Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto, aged 72, former general of the Indonesian special forces, involved in several human rights violations notably in East Timor and Papua (accused but never indicted), is running for office. third time for the highest office, after losing to Jokowi in 2014 and 2019. His running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, mayor of Solo (city of 500,000 inhabitants in Central Java) and eldest son of Joko Widodo, did not only 36 years old and only managed to run after a ruling by the Constitutional Court authorizing candidates under 40 to compete if they have been or are currently serving as governor, regent or mayor. A decision marred by accusations of nepotism, to the extent that the president of the tribunal of the Constitutional Court was Anwar Usman, brother-in-law of Jokowi.
As head of Gerindra, a right-wing populist nationalist political party, Prabowo received support from a coalition of other parties, including Golkar and the National Mandate Party (PAN). Prabowo and Gibran did not receive direct support from Jokowi, as the outgoing president is supposed to remain neutral, but they are seen as “continuity” candidates. They proclaimed their desire to continue Jokowi's roadmap to make Indonesia one of the world's largest economies by 2045. Prabowo also promises the construction of several million homes in rural areas and free meals for schoolchildren in order to remedy the stunted growth that occurs among the poorest.
Electoral permanence in Jakarta of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka. © Nicolas Sanders/RFI
Number 3: Ganjar Pranowo (running mate: Mahfud MD)
Former governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, aged 55, comes from the ranks of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), a nationalist and secular political party which supported Joko Widodo for president in 2014 and 2019, led by ex-president Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of national hero and first Indonesian president, Sukarno. Ganjar Pranowo is accompanied by Mahfud MD, 66, former Coordinating Minister of Political, Legal and Security Affairs. Ganjar presents himself as a candidate close to the people and their concerns, highlighting his desire to improve the living conditions of the most deprived by expanding the scope of social protection.
He received support from the United Development Party (PPP), the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo). Ganjar became the subject of international controversy over his campaign in 2023 to exclude Israel from participation in the FIFA Under-17 World Cup in Indonesia. A tournament finally moved by Fifa to Argentina, due to the action of Ganjar, who lost the support of the many football fans in the archipelago, but regained in the process that of radical Islamists and supporters of the Palestinian cause.
On a busy street in Jakarta, free distribution of T-shirts bearing the image of Ganjar Pranowo and his running mate Mahfud MD. © Nicolas Sanders/RFI
What are the stakes in the presidential election?
Employment and the cost of living are among the major concerns of Indonesians, as in many countries. According to the Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik), the unemployment rate in August 2023 had fallen to 5.32%, and the average monthly salary in Indonesia stood at 3.18 million rupiah (188 euros). . However, it is interesting to note that according to the results of the “What worries the world” study by the French Institute Ipsos in Indonesia, corruption remains the first concern of 53% of voters, followed by poverty (43%) and crime (22%). These three concerns are closely linked in the minds of voters in the archipelago who consider that corruption is a criminal act whose direct consequence is the impoverishment of Indonesia for the benefit of the enrichment of a few.
If the presence in the ballot of Joko Widodo's own son as Prabowo Subianto's running mate allowed the latter to take off in the polls (for 81% of Indonesians,
the directions followed by Jokowi
took the country in the right direction), the The student movement did not hear it the same way. The student demonstrations that have occurred in recent weeks on Indonesian campuses against a backdrop of demands also including the question of human rights sound like a warning to the next government, particularly if its composition displeases the demonstrators.
Third largest democracy and first Muslim country in the world by population (around 88% of Indonesians are Muslim), the archipelago benefits from a strategic location giving it geopolitical importance. A member of several international organizations, including the United Nations, G20 and ASEAN, Indonesia occupies a prominent place in regional and international affairs. The political stability of the country is an essential cog in maintaining regional peace and stability. As one of the world's largest exporters of coal, nickel and palm oil, Indonesia also plays a key role in the climate change crisis.
In the struggle for influence between the United States and China in Asia, Indonesia is considered by Washington as a “swing state”. Joko Widodo has thus considerably strengthened ties with China at the same time as he has maintained a strong relationship with the United States, particularly in the area of defense.
What do the polls say?
The Prabowo-Gibran ticket remained at the top of voting intentions throughout the campaign, between 45 and 48% according to the different institutes, even surpassing the 50% mark in the last days before the election. If these figures were to be confirmed by voters, the Prabowo-Gibran ticket would win in the first round. The Ganjar-Mahfud MD ticket given between 26 and 20% for its part suffered a clear erosion at the end of the campaign, falling to between 16 and 19% of voting intentions. A regression which mainly took place to the benefit of the Anies-Iskandar ticket, credited between 16 and 20% at the start of the campaign, to end up with between 20 and 25% of intentions in the final straight.
For his last campaign meeting, Anies Baswedan, the “third man” of this election, gathered more than 100,000 of his supporters at the Jakarta International Stadium, the stadium of the football club in the Indonesian capital. At the end of the rally, he explained to RFI during a press conference what, according to him, sets him apart from the other candidates.
What differentiates us from other candidates is that we defend the idea of change...
00:59
Anies Baswedan
Nicholas Sanders
How does this gigantic election take place?
On February 14, around 820,000 polling stations spread across the 18,000 islands of this sprawling archipelago open at 7 a.m. and close their doors at 1 p.m., in the three Indonesian time zones (UTC +7/8/9). Voters aged over 17 (52% of registered voters are under 40 and a third of them are under 30) must choose from three presidential tickets as well as from several tens of thousands of candidates who are face around 20,000 national, provincial and district posts. Finally, 10,000 candidates from 18 political parties are vying to win one of the 575 seats in the national Parliament. Each political party
must have a woman
in at least one position in three on its lists. You must obtain at least 4% of the votes at national level to hope to be represented in Parliament.
The vote, from which the police and the military are excluded, is supervised by nearly seven million assessors, electoral officials and independent workers. In 2019, during the last election, nearly 900 of them died due to overwork caused by this gigantic election. The counting of votes begins as soon as the polling stations close. Thanks to the sampling method, projections on the results will be published on the evening of February 14 by the electoral commission. A first count that observers of Indonesian political life consider to be quite reliable. The official result should be known within 30 days, perhaps a little longer if the numbers turn out to be close. The electoral law provides for a maximum period of 35 days for the disclosure of the final results. The new president must be inaugurated on October 20 and appoint his government within 15 days.
Three questions for Soeprapto Tan, executive director of the Indonesian branch of the Ipsos institute
“Now it is on social networks that the battle is being fought”
RFI: Why is this presidential election more important than the others?
Soeprapto Tan:
This election is very important, because the big challenge for the next president will be to continue the development started 10 years ago, to the extent that Indonesia now finds itself at a crossroads: there is always the risks engaging in a form of stagnation, as a backlash to this incredible leap forward that we are experiencing. Our country is changing, it is moving from being a developing country to a developed country, we are really close to that. Whoever the next president is, the challenge will be to continue our momentum. Candidate No. 2 [Prabowo Subianto, editor's note] has a good chance of winning but with No. 1 [Anies Baswedan, editor's note] and No. 3 [Ganjar Pranowo, editor's note] it's 50/50, there is a risk that I would therefore describe as political risk. But whatever the voters decide, at least we can't go back. At worst, in the event of stagnation, we will have to be content with what we have done so far.
Isn't the major problem of corruption the ultimate challenge for the next president?
Almost any project of a certain size involves commissions and therefore corruption, it is almost planned in advance. Even during the Covid period. What does that mean, other than that we are not a perfect country... In my opinion, this is really the key to everything, the next president, whoever he is, will have to work to resolve the problem in the most definitive way possible. A bill is currently being examined in Parliament, which will undoubtedly make it possible to deal more harshly with the problem of corruption, by imitating somewhat what happened in China with the confiscation of the property of the corrupt. But all that takes a long time, and there is still a way to go. And then there is another major issue, namely that of the expansion of the middle class: people receive better education, they have better opportunities, they climb the social ladder, they have better jobs than before .
What are your thoughts on the electoral campaign for this election?
I noticed that during this presidential campaign, and this is really the first time that this has happened, religion has not been an issue. Because this is what divided the nation in the past, even in 2019 during the previous presidential election, for example in my own family we clashed because of individual beliefs. But at least now the climate is much more positive, it's much more exciting. And then in the past, there were, for example, candidates who occupied all the media space on TV, by buying a lot of advertising space during prime time. But that has changed, because now it is on social networks that the battle is being fought. So, in the end, even if we do not agree, we can exchange as much as we want, because we have turned the back to the old ways of dividing people. Everyone expresses themselves freely, whatever their origin, ethnicity, opinions… No one really feels offended by what others say, and this is a true sign of political and democratic maturity in this election. We didn't know this before. You see the progress made, and it's quite a beautiful thing for Indonesian society. In a way, Indonesia has finally achieved unity in diversity, which is the country's motto. A motto, initially, is above all an intention, that’s clear. In this specific case, we try to be more and more united.
Soeprapto Tan, executive director of the Indonesian branch of the Ipsos Institute in Jakarta. Behind him, the first metro line opened in the Indonesian capital in 2019. © Nicolas Sanders/RFI
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