Angry protests in the Senegalese capital, Dakar, against postponing the elections (Reuters)

The Senegalese do not hide at any time their pride that their country is an African exception to democracy in a space full of coups, and with some “transcendent” pride they bring this back to the consciousness of their politicians and elite and their army’s distance from politics.

However, the Senegalese today fear that the last weeks of the rule of their President Macky Sall will undermine what Senegal has built during 63 years, or at least 60 since the first postponement of presidential elections in the country’s history in 1963 during the era of former President Léopold Sédar Sénégor, and although the Senegalese do not want to Despite this delay, the winds of politics in Dakar seem stronger than the waves of the Atlantic Ocean, on the rocks of whose banks "Little Paris" has been sleeping for decades.

Over the past three years, Senegal has not experienced a state of rapprochement and political calm between its parties. Rather, the language of trials and violent demonstrations was the language most used in political deliberations in this country, which is confidently moving towards great horizons of development, and if the current president, Macky Sall, had managed - as His supporters say - to bring about a qualitative leap in development in his country, he is now also putting it - by postponing the elections - on a flaming plate.

The last hopes for a third term

The opposition forces accuse President Macky Sall of clinging to a third presidential term, or at least trying to control the electoral scene, to ensure that he has a level of influence on the changes that will result from his departure from power, and because power is sweet and shiny, this African politician has become - according to his opponents - one of the most influential. Those who cling to a rule that is being dispersed by the rule of law and the constitution from its hands.

With the Senegalese Parliament approving a proposal to postpone the elections until the end of the year, President Sall, who was elected in 2012 and re-elected in 2019, will benefit from at least about 10 months, in an extension that is the first of its kind in 6 decades.

Without a doubt, these ten months will enable President Sall to bring about the political and administrative change that enables him, and to leave the imprints he wants on the scene of the presidency after him. However, these months - according to some observers - will not be the “final end” as it seems for the president who has struggled. There are shouts of protest from within and dissatisfaction and anger from without.

Senegalese President Macky Sall's decision to postpone the elections has plunged the country into a political impasse (Al Jazeera)

Massive anger on the island of African democracy

Senegalese cities erupted in anger and strong demonstrations, and the security authorities responded with tear gas and bloody batons, in a scene that has not been uncommon for years in Dakar, Tiss, Saint-Louis and other ancient Senegalese cities. The demonstrators chanted against President Sall and described him as a dictator, which is the same title that began to be repeated on the tongues. Various politicians and opposition forces.

Despite the overwhelming public anger towards this postponement, the rift in the majority camp was limited, and did not go beyond the resignation of the Minister, Secretary-General of the Government, Abdellatif Coulibaly, a journalist and the brother of one of the two judges whose accusation of corruption was used by President Sall as one of the pretexts for postponing the elections.

Criticism of the postponement escalated, as opposition figure Tierno Alassane Sall considered that the president's move amounted to "high treason against the republic," while politician Malek Njay said that what happened was "not a postponement of the elections, but an outright cancellation" of them.

The opposition party excluded from the elections, Othman Sonko, called on the people to confront the “constitutional coup,” which is the same position expressed by the Association of Senegalese Imams and Preachers, who considered the postponement a danger to Senegal and bringing it into a political crisis that will further complicate matters.

In response to the Senegalese parliament's decision to postpone the elections, 12 opposition candidates agreed to put aside their political differences and unite their efforts to challenge the postponement decision.

International concern and dissatisfaction of friends

Countries and organizations friendly to Senegal did not hide their dissatisfaction with the postponement of the presidential elections in this country, which for decades has received many praises and messages of appreciation, influencing the stakes and attracting international poles.

During the past decades, the “democratic atmosphere” was able to bring to Senegal huge economic resources and enormous diplomatic relations, which transformed “African exceptionalism” into a huge resort for investments, relations and international bets.

France, which has strong relations with President Mekki Sall, did not hide its concern regarding the postponement, a position expressed more sharply by the United States, the European Commission, the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the ECOWAS Group, which means - according to a number of Senegalese opponents - that Senegal has become an African country receiving... Negative remarks after decades of Western pampering and praise given by “sponsors of democracy” towards Senghor’s country.

The Supreme Court in the Senegalese capital, Dakar (Al Jazeera)

Making a Post-Sal Scene

The Senegalese President's announcement to postpone the elections was based on multiple pretexts, including the request of the excluded candidate Karim Abdallah Wade (son of former President Abdallah Wade) to postpone the elections, due to his accusation of two Supreme Court judges of corruption, and his objection to excluding a large number of those seeking the presidency in his country. The most prominent among them is Wade himself and the most prominent opposition figure currently in prison, Othman Sonko.

A statement issued by the Senegalese Democratic Party (led by Karim Wade) said that “this bill will repair the damage caused to more than 40 candidates who were excluded from the presidential elections,” and called on its supporters to “strongly support postponement.”

Contrary to what was expected, Sall and his supporters found in Wade’s demand an irreplaceable opportunity to catch a breath that almost destroyed the opposition force, and shook the inner house of the majority, as the regime became the first beneficiary of a postponement whose first demand came from deep within the majority, transforming it from a request from the opposition camp into a deep bet for the authority. Especially since its presidential candidate is not convincing to all the majority, and he is competing for power with strong candidates who have a strong network of internal and external relations.

While the authority camp expects the postponement to be in their favor, the postponement could also give the opposition an opportunity to increase incitement against the regime and mobilize the street against it, if the national dialogue that President Sall confirmed that he will launch within a short period does not succeed.

But the men in power and those close to it are confident that they will overcome this impasse and overcome this challenge. “This is not the first time that Senegal has changed its president,” and the guarantees that provide the opportunity for a smooth transfer of power through transparent and unchallenged elections are available, according to what the Senegalese government spokesman said. In a previous interview with Al Jazeera Net.

In that interview, he refers to some of the guarantees provided by the Senegalese political environment for organizing credible elections: “I believe that Senegal’s reputation in the field of elections is sufficient, because recent history tells us that we are a democratic country, and since 1960 it has been steadily organizing free and transparent elections.”

He added, "Since 1990-1991 we have had a culture based on establishing what we call consensual election law. This means, in addition to the legal status and the role of the National Assembly (Parliament), that there should be, first and foremost, a discussion between political actors, the opposition, and the government to establish consensual rules, and one cannot expect A lack of transparency in elections in a country where the opposition won in the large cities during the last local elections, while the government won the elections in the countryside.”

Among the various bets, the glow of democracy appears to be increasingly declining, and African exceptionalism - as the Senegalese presidential spokesman said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - is in danger that may return it to the original African rule.

Imprisoned Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko (French)

Scenarios

According to the predetermined deadlines, the presidential elections were supposed to take place on February 25, with the current term of President Macky Sall ending on April 2, with the handover of power to the new president-elect, but the current postponement crisis has introduced the process into severe complications and opened The field faces several scenarios, the most prominent of which are:

  • - Responding to the appeals of opposition candidates, which means canceling the postponement decision approved by Parliament, and trying to put the electoral process back on track after the stumble that occurred in recent days, which led to widespread anger in the Senegalese street.

  • In this case, the elections can be held on the previously scheduled date on the 25th of the month, or a new election date can be set.

  • President Macky Sall retracted his decision, in response to internal and external pressures, and agreed to return the electoral process to the path it had deviated from since the postponement decision.

  • Although this option is excluded at the present time, its practical application will raise technical problems, such as the readiness to organize elections that had previously been postponed, or even political and legal related to the list of candidates supposed to run in the elections, given that the original list excluded some opposition leaders, which is what opened the door in the first place. Before the postponement decision, the postponement decision is no longer just a presidential decision, but rather was approved by Parliament.

  • - The continuation of the electoral process in accordance with the current decisions that raise widespread legal, constitutional and political controversy in Senegal. This means rejecting the judicial appeals submitted by the opposition, and the continuation of the political crisis as it is until the elections are organized on the date set for them at the end of the year, and perhaps beyond that.

  • - Obtaining a political consensus between the regime and the opposition, whether on the electoral schedule approved by Parliament, or on another consensual calendar, especially with talk of external mediation led by Nigeria, in addition to the presence of Sufi authorities who have a great influence on the political elite and often intervene in times of crises to pull the fuse. explosion, and restore calm to the country.

The agreement may include more than just setting a date for the postponed elections, to the issuance of a presidential pardon for the imprisoned opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko, and his aide, Bassero Diomai Faye, who has also been imprisoned since last year, as well as opposition activists who were thrown in prison during the unrest of March 2021 and June. /June 2023.

While the crisis is intensifying and the scenarios are multiplying, Senegal is writing diaries of a strong political scramble, but this country still has a lot of institutional strength and street energy, which enables it to absorb a hot and flaming crisis, especially since those with tough shoes are still far from commenting on the events.

Source: Al Jazeera + agencies