Between Israel, Hamas, and China... What was stated in the Munich Security Report?

The Munich Security Conference will be held between February 16 and 18 of this year (Al Jazeera)

Berlin -

 The report of the Munich Security Conference for 2024 paid remarkable attention to the repercussions of the Israeli war on Gaza, and said that “the war that followed Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 last shook the region, and may have disrupted the trend towards a practical shift in the foreign policy of regional countries.”

Among the trends that have been disrupted, according to the report, is “giving priority to calming the escalation and achieving stability in the region,” especially in light of the normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries, which enabled Israel to export 24% of its arms exports to countries that signed these agreements.

The report represents an introduction to the conference that will be held in Munich between February 16 and 18, and will be attended by leaders and officials from countries around the world.

The report highlighted the fear of “the outbreak of a massive regional conflagration,” especially with “Israel continuing its military campaign in Gaza, and Iranian agents in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq continuing to intensify their attacks on Israeli and American forces,” which threatens to “dissipate initial hopes for rapprochement in the East.” "Middle."

The Munich Security Conference report raised fears of an increase in armament in the region after last October 7 (Anadolu Agency)

Western fear

“There was a Western perception that the region had become safe before the Hamas operation, but the opposite turned out to be the case,” Hosni Obaidi, director of the Center for Studies on the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva, told Al Jazeera Net, pointing out that the West realizes that the peace agreements have vanished and that the repercussions of the war are very great.

Among the reasons for Western interest in the war is the geographical proximity of the Middle East to Europe, as well as the threat to European economic security in the field of energy and securing maritime navigation, as well as the war’s acceleration in creating a new international order that will not necessarily be American, explains Obaidi, who also works as a lecturer at the University of Geneva.

The Munich Security Report stated that the Middle East is divided over relations with Israel, and that the current war “restored pro-Palestinian sentiment among many Arab peoples,” prompting leaders to “walk a fine line” to appease their citizens while ensuring that relations with Israel are not severed.

The document also stated that “a comprehensive and credible plan to reach a long-term political settlement and a method of governance in Gaza after the war is crucial,” but it also depends on several matters, including the intervention of external powers and regional parties, the manner of Iran’s responses, and the nature of Israel’s management of the war.

Commenting on the report, Kawa Hassan - a non-resident researcher at the Stimson Center - explains that “the report did not bring anything new regarding developments in the region. All it did was reproduce existing analyses,” but he points out that the West in general is afraid of the effects of The war, because "the Hamas operation was very large, and no one - including Hamas itself - imagined that it would be of this size and thus lead to all these repercussions."

Hassan added to Al Jazeera Net that the repercussions of the war are preoccupying the West, as "the results are very disastrous in Gaza, especially the humanitarian situation, and questions about the outcome of the political situation are still pending, especially regarding the form of Palestinian governance of the Strip, as well as the West's fear of losing its influence in the region."

Continuation of armament

The report said that “the Hamas attack returned the world’s attention to the divisions in the Middle East,” especially with regard to armaments, indicating that Middle Eastern countries spent an average of 3.9% of their gross domestic product on armaments in 2022 compared to the global average of 2.2%, and among the top ten countries. In the world there are 7 countries from the Middle East and North Africa.

The report also focused on European and American armament of these countries, as Middle Eastern countries received 40% of total American arms exports and 34% of French arms exports in 4 years.

The report indicates that freedom from dependence on the United States in the field of armaments also caused an increase in defense expenditures for countries such as Saudi Arabia.

Amid the game of international alliances, expert Hosni Obaidi confirms that the regional powers in the Middle East were looking to invest the cards they had in order to guarantee a place in the new regional order, especially after their freedom from American pressure in the wake of the Ukrainian-Russian war.

But the war on Gaza “changed the equation and restored the centrality of the Palestinian issue again at the popular level,” the expert adds, but at the same time most countries in the region are looking to reduce the security repercussions on their borders, and return to what the situation was like before last October 7.

For his part, Kawa Hassan says, "There is a kind of mistrust between a number of countries in the region, especially among major players such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey, and there is no regional organization that actually facilitates dialogue between these countries."

Hassan explains that regional competition and fear of the other party are two factors that exacerbate armament.

The Munich Security Conference report pointed to the Chinese role in concluding reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran (Getty Images)

China cares

The report referred to the “historic agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and mentioned China’s role in reconciliation, despite the fact that “Riyadh allowing Beijing to complete the deal came to attract the attention of the United States,” pointing out that Riyadh is still leading efforts to contain Iran, especially with regard to the Houthis, Likewise with regard to nuclear armament.

China has a great interest in the region, as well as - according to the same source - its invitation to join economic cooperation organizations, such as the BRICS organization inviting Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join, as well as Iran joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, based in Beijing.

The report believes that Middle Eastern countries believe that Washington wants to reduce the extent of its influence in the region and shift the focus to the Indo-Pacific region, while China is intensifying its efforts in the region, and has become the first trading partner of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, but America is still the region’s first provider in the security field.

Kawa Hassan comments, "China certainly aims to become a major player in the region, and will try to benefit from the current war and popular anger against the West because of its unlimited support for Israel in order to be an acceptable regional mediator in peace processes."

He continued that this Chinese desire is governed by the necessity of Beijing presenting a political and military strategy, which remains difficult to evaluate from now, especially to confirm that China will compensate the United States.

For his part, Hosni Obeidi confirms that China is the country that benefits most from what is happening, and that its diplomacy has not yet shown its full strength, indicating that its benefit began since the depletion of Western capabilities in the Ukraine war, whether military or economic.

The expert stresses that "the Western narrative about China not demanding countries in the region to respect human rights is an outdated narrative, because the West has strengthened its relations with countries that have not undertaken any reforms in this area."

Source: Al Jazeera