“More destructive and bloody.” Does Israel fear an all-out war with Hezbollah?

Smoke rising from an Israeli army position on the border with Lebanon after it was hit by a missile fired by Hezbollah (French)

Occupied Jerusalem -

At a time when mutual bombardment continues on the Lebanese border, a study was unveiled that extrapolates the scenario of what would happen on the Israeli home front if a comprehensive confrontation broke out on the northern front between Lebanese Hezbollah and the occupation army, and turned into a multi-front war.

According to the security study published by the Calculist newspaper, the potential war would be more destructive and bloody for Israel, and it also reviewed the horrific details of what it described as a “horror scenario” that predicts what the Israeli home front will look like if this war breaks out.

The multi-front war, according to the same study, will begin from the north with Hezbollah launching huge, intense, and destructive missiles almost everywhere in Israel, at a rate of 2,500 to 3,000 launches per day, and will include inaccurate and accurate long-range missiles.

The party will also fire a massive barrage of missiles at sensitive centers targeting important military bases for the Israeli army or cities in the greater Tel Aviv area, which will be targeted by hundreds of missiles in one day, and the shooting will continue day after day until the last day of the war, about 3 weeks after its outbreak. .

Lebanese Hezbollah fighters participate in cross-border raids with the Israeli occupation (French)

Multiple fronts

This scenario is not a response that was formulated after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle on October 7, 2023. Rather, it is the result of a study that began about 3 years ago at the “Counter-Terrorism” Policy Institute at Reichmann University in Herzliya, at the end of which a report was prepared entitled “Dealing with... With the challenges of the combat front and winning the campaign.”

Six research centers participated in preparing the study - consisting of 130 pages - including approximately 100 Israeli experts in the so-called "fight against terrorism", former security officials, academics and government officials, who studied critical aspects related to preparing the Israeli army and the home front for a multi-front war.

According to the study, in the early stages of the war, which will cause panic for the Israelis, more armed organizations from the Middle East will join Hezbollah, including pro-Iranian organizations in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Aside from the massive destruction that Israel has never known before, with the expected deaths of thousands of soldiers and civilians, one of the main goals of the shooting will be to cause the collapse of the air defense systems of the occupation army.

Armed organizations will launch precision missiles, drones, and cruise missiles to inflict physical damage on the Iron Dome batteries and completely destroy them, and the rate of fire and the intensity of the missile bursts will expose Israeli military technology to challenges it has not faced before.

According to this study, the stock of Iron Dome and David's Sling interceptor missiles will run out within a few days at most from the start of the fighting, and Israel will be exposed to thousands of rockets and missiles at all hours of the day without an effective air defense, certainly not an airtight one.

Massive attack

At the same time, Hezbollah will attempt to disrupt the activities of the Israeli Air Force and limit its ability to operate from its bases, where heavy and accurate missiles will be directed to the runways at intervals that prevent or make it difficult to recover them.

Intense fire will be directed towards the military aircraft warehouses in which the F-16, F-35 and F-15 aircraft are stored, which constitute the base of the bulk of the Israeli combat air force.

Precision missiles with warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms, including cruise missiles, will also be directed at vital infrastructure projects that are under targeting, including power generation plants, electricity sector infrastructure, and water desalination and transportation facilities. The sea ports in Haifa and Ashdod will be closed, and trade will be suspended. International goods.

Swarms of dozens of Iranian-made suicide drones will fly at a very low altitude towards sensitive, high-quality targets deep inside Israel, in an attempt to strike weapons factories, emergency warehouses belonging to the Israeli army, and hospitals that will be crowded with wounded in huge numbers that medical teams have not witnessed even in the days that Following the October 7 attack.

Vital transportation infrastructure, means of communication, and websites of government ministries and local authorities will be the target of large-scale cyber attacks, to the point of disrupting the functioning of the Israeli economy.

Road traffic will also be difficult and dangerous, because traffic control systems will collapse, missiles will fall everywhere, and mass unrest will close central roads.

The chaos will intensify when Hezbollah sends hundreds of Al-Radwan fighters, its commando force, to penetrate into Israeli territory, in an attempt to control the settlements along the border with Lebanon and the positions of the occupation army in the Upper Galilee.

The Israeli army will be forced to deal with fighting and chaos, and engage in battles and clashes with Hezbollah fighters inside Israeli territory, and this will be at the expense of directing military efforts to launch immediate combat operations in Lebanon and ground maneuvers to control missile launching areas from southern Lebanon.

Huge damage

The Israeli public will find it difficult for several days to obtain updated and reliable information about the situation, and will lose confidence in the messages it will receive from Israeli officials and spokespersons.

Anxiety and panic will increase among Israelis, given the large number of deaths, massive damage, power and water outages, the delay in the arrival of rescue forces to sites of destruction, and the difficulty of obtaining basic services such as food, medical treatment and medicine.

Hezbollah will increase the anxiety and confusion of Israelis through continuous psychological warfare, and will launch a widespread awareness battle by flooding the media and social networks with threats and misleading information that will deepen internal disputes.

While those who want to flee for their lives abroad, according to the security study, will find that Israel’s air communication with the world has been cut off due to the closure of Ben Gurion Airport, which will be subjected to an unprecedented missile attack.

Throughout the war, Hezbollah will do its utmost to ignite fire in every possible arena, by inciting fighting and encouraging intifada in the West Bank and among the Arab citizens of Israel, to occupy as many of the army and police as possible with maintaining public order on the home front.

After nearly 3 weeks of fire and blood, the unprecedented scale of damage in Lebanon and Israel will lead to the war ending with a frustrating sense of “draw,” under pressure from the international community.

Even in the final hours of the war, Hezbollah will continue to launch rockets and missiles on the home front according to a systematic launch plan, while activating the launch systems from deep within Lebanese territory from the launch pads it prepared in advance.

Source: Al Jazeera