(International Observer) Who can replace Jokowi in the three pillars of the Indonesian election?

　　China News Service, Jakarta, February 11th: Who can replace Jokowi in the three-pronged Indonesian election?

　　China News Service reporter Li Zhiquan

　　Starting from February 11, the Indonesian general election entered a silent period, and the 75-day campaign came to an end, waiting for the arrival of the voting day on the 14th. Who will succeed Jokowi, who has been in power for ten years, and become the next president has attracted much attention from the international community.

　　At present, the camps represented by the three candidates all claim to "win the championship in one fell swoop." But everyone knows that winning in the first round is not easy. If the general election enters the second round, it will be even more difficult to predict who will win.

Three pillars of power

　　Indonesia holds a general election every five years, with presidential and vice-presidential candidates running in pairs. Indonesia has three candidates for the 2024 general election.

　　The No. 1 presidential candidate is Anis, the former governor of the Jakarta Capital Territory, and his partner is Muhaimin, the chairman of the National Awakening Party. Anis, 54, was the former Indonesian Minister of Education and holds a doctorate in political science from Northern Illinois University in the United States.

　　Anis comes from a scholarly family. In 2007, at the age of 37, he was elected president of the University of Paramadina, becoming the youngest university president in the country. As governor of Jakarta, Anis was praised for his response to the coronavirus pandemic but criticized for his inability to address other issues such as affordable housing, air pollution, traffic jams and flooding.

　　The No. 2 presidential candidate is the current Defense Minister Prabowo, and his deputy is Jokowi’s eldest son and Solo Mayor Gibran. The 72-year-old Prabowo is a retired lieutenant general who has lost to Jokowi twice. This is his third attempt to challenge the presidential throne.

　　Prabowo's grandfather was the founder of Bank Negara Indonesia, his father was a cabinet member during the Sukarno and Suharto periods, and he himself was Suharto's second son-in-law. Prabowo's military career has been both glorious and disgraceful. After losing the election in 2019, Prabowo chose to reconcile with Joko and was invited to join the cabinet.

　　The No. 3 presidential candidate is Ganjar, the former governor of Central Java, and his partner is Mahfoud. The 55-year-old Ganjar was a member of the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party and was strongly recommended by former President Megawati.

　　Compared with the other two candidates, Ganjar is from a civilian background, but has a rich and complete political resume, covering everything from legislation to the ruling party. He is considered to have established a better public base during his time in charge of Central Java.

The worry of winning one round

　　Of the three candidates, Prabowo, the oldest, is leading in many polls and has a higher voice in public opinion.

　　But after the last debate on the evening of February 4, data from a social media research institute showed that Anis and Ganjar performed better, with netizens’ positive impressions reaching 86% and 72% respectively. In contrast, about Prabowo, 48% of netizens expressed negative views, while only 43% had positive impressions.

　　It also shows that, at least when it comes to social media, Prabowo is not completely in charge.

　　Gibran was still being held by his pigtails. On February 5, the chairman of the Indonesian Election Commission and several members were accused of serious violations of the code of ethics, pointing the finger at Gibran.

　　The Indonesian constitution stipulates that the minimum age for running for president and vice president is 40 years old. Last year, the Indonesian Constitutional Court ruled that persons under the age of 40 are not subject to this restriction if they currently or have served as local leaders. Gibran had just turned 36 at the time. Affected by this, Anwar, the former chief justice of the Indonesian Constitutional Court and Jokowi's brother-in-law, was found to have "seriously violated" the ethics and code of conduct, and was eventually dismissed.

　　Although these two incidents will not affect Gibran's fait accompli as a vice presidential candidate or his qualifications for the election, the continued heated discussion of this topic will undoubtedly plant hidden worries for Prabowo's victory in the first round.

　　According to relevant Indonesian regulations, if a candidate wants to win in one round, it is not enough to obtain more than 50% of the votes. He must also win at least 20% of the votes in more than half of Indonesia's provinces and regions. This is to prevent votes from being too concentrated in one area.

　　If no candidate qualifies, the election will enter a second round in June, with the top two candidates facing off. Indonesian media analyzed that Anis and Ganjar may join forces by then, making the election more complicated.

Jokowi’s Attitudes and Young Voters

　　Joko is extremely popular in Indonesia, and his attitude is very important to who can replace him.

　　A few months ago, Joko described a portrait of his successor to his supporters: "You can see it from his face, his appearance. There are wrinkles on his face because he always thinks of the people, he His hair also turned white."

　　Ganjar, who appears with white hair, was once regarded as the "white-haired man" in Jokowi's mouth. But as time went by, Indonesian media observed that he and Prabowo were "getting closer." On the one hand, Jokowi's eldest son Gibran became Prabowo's vice-presidential candidate; on the other hand, Jokowi did not attend the party celebration of the Democratic Struggle Party, and his relationship with Megawati, the party chairman who strongly promoted him at the time, changed. It has to be very subtle.

　　Who does Joko support? He said, for the good of the country, I support all candidates. Taking the Joko government's capital relocation plan as an example, both Prabowo and Ganjar said they would continue this policy, while Anis publicly expressed opposition.

　　Who can succeed Joko depends on the attitude of young voters. According to statistics, among Indonesia’s 204.8 million voters, the young generation aged 20 to 35 account for nearly 60% of the total voters. The three candidates are pulling out all the stops to attract young voters.

　　Among the top three ticket holders in Indonesia, competition in Central Java is expected to be fierce. This is the stronghold of the Democratic Struggle Party, and Ganjar has been in charge of Central Java for 10 years. Solo City in Central Java Province is Jokowi's hometown, and Jibrand is the mayor of the city. (over)